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Crisis Briefing: Restless South Sudan

Teja Palko

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South Sudan with capital Juba is a country in northeastern Africa. Young state has a population over 11 million people with diverse ethnicity of 18 ethnic groups.Among the largest ethnic groups are Dinka, Nuer and Shilluk. Unlike the predominantly Muslim population of Sudan, the South Sudanese follows traditional religions, while a minority is Christians. South Sudan has six neighboring countries and is divided into ten states.

After independence on July 9 2011 country had no internal capacity to build all of the institutions that takes to build a successful state. Following several decades of civil war with Sudan, industry and infrastructure in South Sudan are severely underdeveloped and poverty is widespread. Between 1955 and 2005, Sudan and South Sudan experience conflict and war for all but few years. Relationship between countries is of special importance since South Sudan relies on pipelines, refineries and Port Sudan’s facilities in Red Sea in Sudan.South Sudan has the third largest oil reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa and it is estimated that 75% of all the former Sudan’s oil reserves are in South Sudan. There are still conflicts between two mentioned countries. Beside oil dispute there is also ongoing border dispute in the region of Abyei, over land. South Kordofan and Darfur are still open topics. Oil production in South Sudan and its dependence on oil has an impact on the economic situation.

It is acknowledgeable that South Sudan has some of the worst health indicators in the world. More than half of the population lives below the poverty line. Based on The Fund for Peace and itsFragile states index, country was the most fragile state in the world in 2014. The youngest country in the world has suffered internal conflicts since its independence.Fighting started on 15 December 2013 after President Salva Kiir accused his ex-vice president, Riek Machar of an attempted coup. Conflict spiraled out of control and spread across the country.Machar assumed leadership of “rebellion” and the army split as clashes occurred around the country.Violence began along ethnic lines, but the dynamics are very complicated.The political crisis and the break-up of security forces affected states in South Sudan in different ways. Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile and Central Equatoria (Juba County) have seen the worst of the fighting. In Lakes and Warrap States were and still are thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs). In the other four remaining states there was no fighting and only small numbers of IDPs. It is sad and frustrating that South Sudan, with catastrophic humanitarian crisis and civil war does not even hit the headlines anymore.

Since the fighting started tens of thousands of people have been killed, and more than 1, 5 million are IDPs. According to World Food Program (WPF) 2, 5 million people in country urgently need food. Based on World Health Organization (WHO) life expectancy in the country is only 55 years. There are also a lot of refugees in and outside the country. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports that more than 500,000 individuals have crossed the borders to seek refuge in neighboring countries. The number of refugees in the country is 259,232. Amnesty International and other international organizations reported of systematic and widespread human rights violations. There is also no accountability for crimes and atrocities. Children are forcibly recruited on both sides of the conflict. Furthermore, sexual and gender-based violence is constantly reported. The legacy of civil war and chronic underdevelopment impact heavily on the ability of the new state to provide basic services and respond to humanitarian needs, rendering communities vulnerable to the effects of insecurity, displacement, food shortages, outbreaks of disease and seasonal floods.

There are different options or courses of action that should be considered in order to resolve problems in South Sudan. We have seen negotiations and mediation in South Sudan but they do not reflect the diversity of armed groups and interests in the country and region. In 2014 Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) began mediating a political dispute between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) which escalated into an armed conflict between forces loyal to President Kiir and those loyal to Riek Machar. East African sub-regional body began mediating between the government of South Sudan and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-in Opposition (SPLA/M-IO). A cessation of hostilities agreement was signed in January 2014 and also on 9 May, but fighting continued. In June negotiations was broadened to include other stakeholder groups. IGAD leaders further authorized the IGAD region to intervene directly in South Sudan to protect life and restore peace. To date, there is no agreement between the fighting parties. The conflict cannot be resolved by engaging only two of the nearly two-dozen armed groups in the country and ignoring groups that had not yet engaged in fighting. There is a nationwide trend of fragmentation of armed groups.

In order to reach peace in South Sudan African Union (AU) established a Commission of inquiry in March 2014. The commission was given three month mandate to investigate human rights violations and other abuses during the armed conflict. Report that still has not been made public is an assurance of accountability for crimes and atrocities. The body decided not to release the report because it feared that its publication would disrupt peace negotiations.

The UN Security Council in December 2013 approved an increase in the military strength of the UN mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to 12,500 troops and 1323 police personnel. The focus of UNMISS is on protection of civilians, monitoring and investigating human rights, humanitarian assistance and supporting the implementation of the cessation of hostilities agreement. After failed talks in March this year the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted resolution to impose sanctions on any party that disrupts efforts to restore peace in South Sudan.

Civil war and conflicts have disrupted agriculture and food production. More than seven million people are put at risk of hunger and disease. Humanitarian organizations do not have access to all people in need. There were even reports of obstructing UN mission UNMISS in the country and that puts even greater risk to stability and peace. No free access to lands and the plant corps because of fear of violence has a negative impact on every aspect of the country.

What needs to be done in South Sudan? There is an urgent need for humanitarian assistance and adequate funding. Agreements which were signed in January and in May must be respected by both parties – Government of South Sudan and opposition – SPLM/A-IO. All fighting groups must be considered. Violence against civilians must stop. Crisis Group recommends national dialog, a new constitution, credible elections, addressing the root causes and redefining relations between the state and its citizens. Despite the wealth of natural resources, especially oil, water, gold, silver, iron ore and copper South Sudan remain one of the poorest countries in the world. Problems related to livelihoods, economic development, lack of basic services and extremely weak infrastructure need to be addressed. Due to lack of maintenance, qualified staff, equipment, medicine, medical centers and schools barley function. A new approach is required from UN Security Council. An arms embargo should be posed. There should be an examination of sources that fund the war and actions that will enable leaders from using oil revenues to fund further conflicts. Engagement with the wider community is needed. China is the largest investor and buyer of South Sudan’s oil, and some of the 700 troops of its troops are in the UN peacekeeping force. USA and Washington played a key role in winning independence from Khartoum in 2011. USA and China should persuade Uganda and Sudan to de-escalate the conflicts and pressure their South Sudanese allies to work toward agreements that will enable further development and peace.Cross-border activities should be reduced. So far two agreements to end hostilities have been signed, but the fighting still continues. The one scheduled in March did not come to a light but we hope negotiations will bring more results in the future. Establishment of the hybrid court system with international assistance and independent investigations is needed. There can be no reconciliation without accountability.

Teja Palko is a Slovenian writer. She finished studies on Master’s Degree programme in Defense Science at the Faculty of Social Science at University in Ljubljana.

Africa

Persistent Conflict and Instability Hamper the Recovery of the Central African Republic

MD Staff

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According to the first issue of the Central African Republic (CAR) Economic Update published today by the World Bank, the deterioration in security conditions and the humanitarian situation is dampening hopes for a robust economic recovery in the Central African Republic. After peaking at 4.8% in 2015, the growth rate slowed to 4.5% in 2016 and 4.3% in 2017. Despite the optimism prevailing since the 2016 presidential election and the government’s promising fiscal consolidation policy, the CAR remains a fragile state that could draw lessons from the successful experience of other fragile states in order to sustain its peacebuilding and recovery efforts.

Titled “Breaking the Cycle of Conflict and Instability,” the World Bank’s publication provides an in-depth analysis of the factors creating fragility and proposes a number of avenues to achieve economic recovery. It identifies three essential prerequisites to break the cycle of instability and conflict: restoring security, combating impunity by guaranteeing compensation for the harm suffered by the victims, and promoting equitable and inclusive economic and social development.

Without a doubt, the persistent insecurity is the biggest obstacle to poverty reduction, as each new violent confrontation between armed groups leads to additional displacement, destroys private property, and complicates the work of humanitarian organizations,” said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Country Director for the Central African Republic. “The protracted security crisis in the CAR is taking a toll on the capacity of the state to provide essential public services and goods in the areas of health, education, and water.

The report recommends that lessons be learned from other post-conflict countries such as Ghana, Liberia, and Rwanda, which have managed to put prolonged periods of instability behind them.

“The experience of these countries underscores the importance of promoting the development of civil society in order to consolidate democratic progress, strengthen public accountability, and enhance transparency while implementing a pragmatic set of policy and institutional initiatives to achieve gradual but steady improvement in the quality of the public service,” said Souleymane Coulibaly, World Bank Lead Economist for the Central African Republic and publishing coordinator for Economic Updates.

The new Economic Updates series for the Central African Republic will review economic trends in the country on a biannual basis in order to help the government and its development partners identify new opportunities and tackle persistent challenges.

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Mauritania Conference : AU Reopen Western Sahara File

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Since the kingdom of Morocco left the OAU in 1984, the Kingdom’s participation with the African states has been seen by its enterprise involvement in several fields like oil imports and humanitarian aid. At the end of the 90s, under the King Mohammed VI rule, Morocco’s African alignments accept a new measurement whereby, continental banking, commercial and economic exchanges took the significant stage in Morocco’s re-engagement with the African States. The main objective for this collaboration and mutual African team banding was to build up a solid South-South strategy cooperation, tapping into Morocco’s longstanding historical, cultural, geopolitical and economic band with the African continent.

On the beginning of July, the 31st Ordinary Session of the African Union(AU) meeting, which took place in Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania which is expectedly going to discuss a report on the Moroccan Sahara Issue.

Depending on the African Union calendar released, this meeting will hold the presentation of three main reports, including a report on the Moroccan Sahara Issue, conferred by Moussa Faki Mohamed, Chairman of the AU Commission.

Basically, this is the first time that the Western Sahara dispute has been conferred with the calendar of an African Union conference since the Kingdom’s return to the African organization last year, after it had left the country three decades ago because of the same issue, which necessitates the kingdom of Morocco would face any challenge to its national case as its priority .

On Thursday, Moussa Faki Mohamed, head of the African Union Commission in Morocco, met with King Mohammed VI, Prime Minister Saad Eddin Othmani and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation Nasser Bourita, along with some of the King’s advisors to discuss the Sahara Dispute which is a report in AU.

The communiqué issued by the African Union on Vicky’s visit to Morocco did not refer to the Sahara issue with Moroccan officials. The communiqué issued on Friday made reference to the role of the Kingdom in the Union Foundation, as well as issues of major concern.

The Moroccan government refuses the inclusion of the Sahara report in the AU calendar and esteems the report to be an exclusive competence of the United Nations, especially in the presence of a total of parties opposed to the Moroccan proposal, led by the separatist Polisario Front, supported and financed by Algeria and some other countries.

Additionally, to offering a report on the Moroccan Sahara Issue, it is anticipated that the 31st AU Meeting, on 1 and 2 July, will show a report on the tools and implementation of the institutional reform decision of the African Union by Paul Kagame, President of the Republic of Rwanda. Additional report on the Africa-Africa Free Trade Area will be handled by Mohamed Essovo, President of the Republic of Niger. Moussa Faki will come up with another report on the African Common Position on the African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries beyond 2020.

This African Union Agenda also includes the presentation of the subject of the year on “Victory in the struggle against corruption: a sustainable path towards African transformation”, to be seen by Mohamed Boukhari, President of the Republic of Nigeria, to be pursued by a debate by the Conference. The concluded sessions will argue the discussion of the activities of the Peace and Security Council on Africa, in which Morocco won a seat months ago.

The calendar of the African Meeting contains a report on the implementation of the African Union’s main roadmap for practical ways to silence guns in Africa in 2020, the adoption of the AU’s 2019 budget and the ratification of appointments in the Federation’s institutions.

Morocco’s acquisition to the African Union will undisputed change the policy of how the Pan-African organization stands the Western Sahara file. Despite Morocco’s diplomatic orientation to refine solving the Sahara dispute in a pragmatic way, its policy will sustain the same as for the acceptance of the SADR is concerned. The kingdom of Morocco is likely to endure its changeless policy to delegitimize any declare or allege of the Polisario in its search for being an independent state. It will also try to undermine the political impact of the Polisario leadership and its keen supporters, South Africa and Algeria.

At the same time, to disband the SADR from the African Union will be a weak mission, as the latter can only discourage other countries whose governments were agreed towards unconstitutional layers. Several African states refuse to disband the SADR. Regardless of Morocco’s intense African policy calendar and huge commercial economic projects, there stay countries who still cover the Polisario leadership. For instance, the case of Nigeria, which get advantage from Morocco’s economic bonus, continuing exercises its position to support the Polisario in their faith for independence.

Currently, the Kingdom of Morocco has used its diplomatic and economic might to return its empty seat at the African Union, it has to bestow that it is a capable partner whose membership will favor the African Union, therefore, solving and resolving the deadlock of an African colonial dispute. In contrast, the SADR can also urge for a resolution by sustaining powerful AU member states endorsement, especially, South Africa and Algeria, to guarantee the Kingdom of Morocco brings up some sort of a win-win barraging agreement.

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New Somali Business Fund Creates Jobs

MD Staff

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Unemployment is chronic across Somalia. The SBCF is expected to generate more than 2,000 jobs, most of which will go to young people. Photo: Hassan Hirsi/World Bank

Sahal, a dairy farmer, is CEO of Bovine Industry, an urban dairy farm in central Mogadishu. The company cross-breeds Somali cattle with Jersey cattle to produce higher-quality milk.

“Mogadishu is the only capital in the world where you can’t buy fresh milk,” Sahal said. “How can a country that exports the most livestock in the world not have fresh milk?”

Despite the clear need for fresh milk, it has been difficult for Sahal and other small and medium enterprises (SMEs) like his to access capital to grow their businesses. That was before the November launch of the Somali Business Catalytic Fund (SBCF), which aims to spur economic growth in country by supporting SMEs and entrepreneurs.

With support from the SBCF, Sahal was able to fit his backyard business with grazing grass and fences. The demand for fresh milk is soaring, with an average waiting list of three months for a single liter. Soon, Sahal will be able to increase his herd of 15 cows, producing more milk and allowing him to employ more people. He believes that development should be based on grassroots needs, and simple supply/demand analyses.

“Farmers have the knowledge to pasteurize milk, produce yogurt and expand the Somali dairy sector,” he said. “We just need the machinery and capital to make it happen.”

SBCF, the Bank’s flagship job creation initiative in Somalia, targets businesses that focus on innovative processes, products and markets new to the region. It is also intended to stimulate the business and technical services industry to build sector expertise in agriculture, livestock and energy, among others. So far, the SBCF has selected 101SMEs across the Somali peninsula – South Somalia, Puntland and Somaliland — to receive financial and technical support. The selected firms are expected to generate more than 2,000 jobs.

“Poverty reduction in Somalia must be private sector-led. We have relied on traditional aid since the early 1990s, and handouts have not been a sustainable method to reduce poverty,” said Sahal. “I believe that access to capital is crucial for both job creation and dignified poverty reduction.”

Asli Health Care Company, based in Hargeisa, has also benefited from the SBCF. The company’s manager, Nemo Yusuf, founded the company after she and her partners studied imports to Somaliland. Through a market study, she and her partners studies the viability of producing beauty products and creating jobs in the process.

“We observed an excess of imports of personal healthcare and beauty products from China and the Middle East, most of which could be produced domestically,” she said. “Our study confirmed that we could produce and sell shampoo, soaps and detergents competitively,” she said. “A reality that is too familiar with Somalis is that we import most products, when we should be producing them.”

Through the SBCF, Yusef was able to purchase high-speed manufacturing equipment, allowing her to produce shampoo bottles that limit waste from importing more plastic.

Her company is also supported through the SME Facility (SMEF). SMEF provides technical assistance and business development services to assist Somali entrepreneurs to launch, manage, and grow successful businesses. Asli and her partners were trained in budget planning, finance, and human resources training, which is helping their business become more effective. SBCF and SMEF fall under the Somali Core Economic Institutions and Opportunities (SCORE) Program, which is funded by the World Bank’s Multi-Partner Fund (MPF).

Armed with this knowledge, Yusuf and her partners have expanded their business. They created a sachet-packet shampoo line as a new product.

“There is a demand for one-time use 10 milliliter sachets, especially among young people and those who cannot afford full bottles,” Yusuf said. “We are in the process of manufacturing our own bottles to drive prices even lower.”

Challenges in Hargeisa are similar to those in Mogadishu, where Yusuf said “accessing capital is probably the main constraint to private sector growth.” There are also challenges such as the availability of skilled labor, supply-chain issues related to infrastructure, affordable energy and economic policies that support private sector competitiveness are also prominent.

Yusuf can see the results in Hargeisa, where the large market could be used to create jobs for young people as well as keep currency in the market and limit inflation.

“Our company is managed entirely by fellow citizens,” she said. “We have employed an additional 17 people to support the expansion of our company, of which most are young people. A third of our employees are women.”

World Bank

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