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Kazakhstan between stability and reforms

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Announced in March, the early presidential election in Kazakhstan has become a debate about the results reached during the past years, the actual problems and the future challenges. The advanced poll was proposed by institutional officials in order to permit President Nazarbayev to lead the country again in the next future.

Kazakhstan is dealing with challenges in political and economic sphere existing in former Soviet space. The country, in addition, is facing some strategic bids directed to promote economic integration in the international markets and its worldwide image. For instance, Kazakh diplomacy is actively working for admission in the World Trade Organization and it has presented its candidacy for a seat as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the years 2017-2018.Moreover, among many relevant events scheduled in the country in the next years, Astana in 2017 will host the International Exposition while Almaty is one of the two candidate cities to host the 2022 Olympic Winter Games.

In this way, in the political establishment gained momentum the idea to ensure stability in phase of great transformations and challenges for the country.

Motivations for the early poll were linked to “technical” as also political and social reasons. One motivation is linked to the willingness to divide presidential and legislative elections, both scheduled for 2016, in order to prevent any sort of threat that could have led to political and institutional paralysis.

The second motivation is related with the increasing tensions in the world scenario and especially in the Eurasian context. The Ukrainian crisis and the current problems between Russia and the Western countries have put under pressure the Central Asian country, always devoted to pursue its “multi-vectorial” foreign policy of good relations with all the most important global players. Moreover, changes in the economic outlook, due to rising prices in the international market and devaluations of national and Russian currencies, have been valuated as possible sources of uncertainty for the next future.

Kazakhstan’s challenges in the next years will be aimed not only at consolidating the stability of the country, but also at establishing a new path of reforms that the presidential bloc is, with all the probabilities, called to implement. On April 11, at Nur Otan (Kazakh ruling party) Congress in Astana, Nursultan Nazarbayev accepted the proposal for candidacy advanced by the professor Kenzhegali Sagadiyev. With this move, there is no doubt about another landslide vicotry of the incumbent. Despite his long staying at power, the Head of the State still enjoys a widespread support throughout the country, thanks to economic and political successes and the objective weakness of the opposition side.

In his acceptance speech, Nazarbayev explained the necessity for the country not to stop its process of modernization, claiming that: “We cannot stand idle. We have to move forward availing on our success to strengthen our statehood”. He underlined the next years are going to assume a great relevance not only for the stability of the country, but also for the realization of a wider spectrum of reforms.The President, in fact, seemed more interested to illustrate the long term path than campaign promises, by identifying five fundamental points for the modernization: state apparatus and meritocracy; rule of law; industrialization and economic growth; strengthening Kazakhstani identity; transparent and accountable state

Among them, there are two key points of Nazarbayev’s presidency. The first, the continuation of the process of economic reforms started with new amendments on law on investments and the main economic development program “Nurly Jol”, within the strategic plan “Strategy 2050”, aimed to put the country among the top 30 world economies. The second, no less important, achievement of a multinational, tolerant and secular society where all the 130 ethnic and 17 religious communities can live in concord.

In addition, Kazakh President stressed the importance of combating corruption, the consolidation of rule of law, the professionalization and training of bureaucratic officials. There is a commitment for the introduction of scrutiny for state apparatus, meritocratic selection criteria and transparency. Moreover, these proposals for “openness” should extend also to political system.

In Nazarbayev’s view, new constitutional reforms should promote a progressive ceding of responsibilities and resources from state structures to regional ones and a transfer of power form the Presidency to the Government and the Parliament. The aim is the creation of a more balanced system of government with a clear division among state institutions, as only in part realized with the constitutional changes in 2007, when were introduced changes to electoral law and the relations between the Prime Minister and the Parliament.

If the calling of new presidential election can be analyzed recurring to motivations of economic stability and the maintenance of socio-political internal concord, the intervention of the President added new significances to the upcoming vote. The five structural areas of reforms listed by Nazarbayev mean the necessity, no longer possible to postpone, to implement a comprehensive package of institutional, administrative, judiciary and economic reforms in order to sustain the modernization of the country.

On one side, these proposals represent a fundamental step for the economic development of the country: after years of impressive growth due to high hydrocarbon prices, it is not possible to conceive a qualitative leap without a more efficient normative and bureaucratic framework.

From the other side, the provision for new constitutional changes could contribute to the improvement of political system. Of course, Nazarbayev’s speech must be analyzed considering the particular Eurasian context. The demand for an immediate introduction of the so called “Western democratic standards” could have a logic in theory but not necessarily in political reality. The choice made by Nazarbayev is the adoption of a gradual, progressive and “Kazakhstani” path of democratization to be completed in four or five decades: considering the work done from 1991 till today, it is possible to reduce this lapse of time to 15-20 years.

This may be not easy to understand for the West, but recent events have demonstrated   the failure of an immediate imposition of external cultural and political values not only in former USSR, but also in other parts of the world. Where the process of democratization ignored the establishment of strong institutions, the aspiration to democracy gave the way to chaos or, in the worst scenarios, new forms of authoritarianism. This kind of situation is what a country with such precious, but delicate, social and ethnic equilibrium needs to avoid. Abrupt, not programmed changes within this framework, in order to adhere to a precise political ideology, could lead to risks for the survival of the country.

If, as said before, Kazakhstan is in the middle of the path of modernization and the next election can be defined as another turning point in its history. Kazakhstan’s development from 1991 till today was characterized by the transition from socialist economy, the definition of a new “Eurasian” identity and the achievement of a notable position in the international community.

After the celebration of this election – and the extension of Nazarbayev’s presidency for another, and maybe the last, mandate – the “leader of the nation” will have to face one of the most delicate challenge: granting to his nation a “legacy” not only in terms of political succession, but also for durable, efficient and stable mechanisms of government. Only in this way, Kazakhstan can maintain and consolidate in the future the positive objectives achieved since independence, improving its position in the international arena and the world economy.

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Central Asia

Kyrgyzstan: Looking for digital solutions to combat child labour

MD Staff

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A group of young digital specialists – supported by the ILO in Kyrgyzstan – was among the prize winners in a ‘Hackathon’ aimed at promoting children’s rights.

Following a marathon 48-hour event involving 18 teams of information technology experts and their mentors, they designed an innovative application that has the potential to monitor the incidence of child labour in communities.

The ILO Child Labour Project in Kyrgyzstan provided general guidance and mentoring to the team to ensure the conformity of the software to the operational mechanisms of the national child protection system in Kyrgyzstan.

Their design came second in the competition, “Central Asian Hackathon, Generation Z: Wellbeing of Children”, which was organized by the Central Asian Coalition on Promotion of the Rights of Women and Children and the “League on protection of Children Rights” Public Fund, in partnership with the ILO, UNICEF, UNODC, the Embassy of Netherlands, and public and business companies.

‘The application helps to conduct interviews with children, formulate recommendations and determine their status,’ said Victoria Petrova, business processes analyst of the ILO-supported IT team. ‘It will help officials to assess the situation of the child, determine whether the child is being exploited and what needs to be done to resolve the situation.’

“We are on constant search of new solutions and new partnerships,” explained Amina Kurbanova, ILO National Project Coordinator in Kyrgyzstan. “The Hackathon gave us a unique opportunity to establish partnership with a new group – young highly qualified IT professionals, and to develop an application that may greatly facilitate child labour monitoring process.”

The IT team, “Testovoe nazvanie”, collected USD 1,500 in prize money.  The ILO now plans to support pilot testing of the new software by the line ministries.

“We are grateful to the ILO for this support. It is obvious that the proposed technologies could be applied in the daily work of social workers, police inspectors, labour inspectors and social pedagogues. The Ministry will carefully study the results of the pilot testing and will closely work with the IT Team specialists during fine-tuning of the application,” says Jyldyz Polotova, Deputy Minister of Labour and Social Development of the Kyrgyz Republic.

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Central Asia

Productive Employment Needed to Boost Growth in Tajikistan

MD Staff

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Tajikistan will need to create enough jobs to maximize productivity of the country’s increasing working-age population and spur economic growth, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

In its new Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2018, ADB projects Tajikistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to reach 6% in 2018 and 6.5% in 2019. GDP growth for the country stood at 7.1% in 2017. ADO is ADB’s annual flagship economic publication.

“Tajikistan has a young population and the percentage of working-age people is projected to continue rising to 2030. In many countries, this has led to higher growth from a ‘demographic dividend’,” said Pradeep Srivastava, ADB Country Director for Tajikistan. “But for Tajikistan to benefit from such a dividend, it needs to undertake structural reforms to improve the investment climate, increase human capital and skills, and let entrepreneurship flourish to create productive jobs for the workforce.”

Despite Tajikistan’s economy growing at an average of about 7.2% from 1997 to 2016, the country is not creating enough productive jobs for its growing working-age population, which grew by 3% annually from 1991 to 2016. However, employment only rose by 0.7% annually over the same period. The report notes the need for structural reforms to improve the country’s business climate—for example, reducing and consolidating the number of inspection bodies, creating a healthier banking sector to facilitate lending, and streamlining procedures for issuing construction permits, paying taxes, and enforcing contracts.

The report also highlights the importance of strengthening local value chains and helping small and medium-sized enterprises improve their productivity and earnings to promote job creation. Assessing demand for various skills and using that information to improve job training can match workforce skills to market demand.

ADB’s growth forecasts for Tajikistan in 2018 comes on the back of expected fiscal tightening from the government to address the high ratio of public debt to GDP, which will likely constrain public investment, and a weak banking sector curbing private investment. The slight recovery in growth projection in 2019 is based on expected gains in the country’s manufacturing and mining sectors, as well as strengthened remittances.

Inflation is forecast to accelerate to 7.5% in 2018—reflecting higher liquidity spurred by potential sizable bank recapitalization, public salary and electricity tariff hikes, and modest somoni depreciation—before easing back to 7.0% in 2019. In 2017, inflation reached 6.7%.

ADB is celebrating 20 years of development partnership with Tajikistan in 2018. To date, ADB has approved around $1.6 billion in concessional loans, grants, and technical assistance to the country. ADB and Tajikistan’s development partnership, which began in 1998, has restored and built the country’s new transport and energy infrastructure, supported social development, expanded agricultural production, and improved regional cooperation and trade.

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Central Asia

ILO Reports Important Progress on Child Labour and Forced Labour in Uzbek Cotton Fields

MD Staff

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A new International Labour Organization report to the World Bank finds that the systematic use of child labour in Uzbekistan’s cotton harvest has come to an end, and that concrete measures to stop the use of forced labour have been taken.

The report Third-party monitoring of measures against child labour and forced labour during the 2017 cotton harvest in Uzbekistan is based on more than 3,000 unaccompanied and unannounced interviews with a representative sample of the country’s 2.6 million cotton pickers. It shows that the country is making significant reforms on fundamental labour rights in the cotton fields.

“The 2017 cotton harvest took place in the context of increased transparency and dialogue. This has encompassed all groups of civil society, including critical voices of individual activists. This is an encouraging sign for the future. However, there is still a lag between the sheer amount of new decrees and reforms being issued by the central government and the capacity to absorb and implement these changes at provincial and district levels,” says Beate Andrees, Chief of the ILO’s Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work Branch.

The ILO has been monitoring the cotton harvest for child labour since 2013. In 2015, it began monitoring the harvest for forced labour and child labour as part of an agreement with the World Bank.

Interviews carried out by the monitors took place in all provinces of the country and included cotton pickers and other groups which are directly or indirectly involved in the harvest such as local authorities, education and medical personnel. In addition, a telephone poll of 1,000 randomly selected persons was conducted. Before the harvest, the ILO experts organized training for some 6,300 people directly involved with the recruitment of cotton pickers.

The results confirm that the large majority of the 2.6 million cotton pickers engaged voluntarily in the annual harvest in 2017 and that there is a high level of awareness in the country about the unacceptability of both child and forced labour. The report confirms earlier findings that the systematic use of child labour in the cotton harvest has ended though continued vigilance is required to ensure that children are in school.

Instructions have been given by the Uzbek national authorities to local administrations to ensure that all recruitment of cotton pickers is on a voluntary basis. In September 2017, an order was given withdrawing certain risk groups (students, education and medical personnel) from the harvest at its early stage.

Moreover, cotton pickers’ wages have been increased in line with recommendations by the ILO and the World Bank. The ILO recommends that the government continues to increase wages and also addresses working conditions more broadly to further attract voluntary pickers.

Last September, Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev spoke before the United Nations General Assembly in New York where he pledged to end forced labour in his country and underscored his government’s engagement with the ILO. In November 2017, at the Global Conference on the Sustained Eradication of Child Labour in Argentina, Uzbekistan also pledged to engage with independent civil society groups on the issue.

The ILO Third-Party Monitoring (TPM) project in Uzbekistan will now focus on the remaining challenges, particularly the need for further awareness raising and capacity building, which varies between provinces and districts. It will ensure that all those involved in recruitment will have the information and tools needed to ensure that cotton pickers are engaged in conformity with international labour standards.

The monitoring and results from a pilot project in the area of South Karkalpakstan also show that cotton picking economically empowers women in rural areas. The cotton harvest provides many women with a unique opportunity to earn an extra cash income which they control and can use to improve the situation of their families.

The ILO TPM Project is funded by a multi-donor trust fund with major contributions by the European Union, United States and Switzerland.

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