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Central Asia

Kazakhstan between stability and reforms

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Announced in March, the early presidential election in Kazakhstan has become a debate about the results reached during the past years, the actual problems and the future challenges. The advanced poll was proposed by institutional officials in order to permit President Nazarbayev to lead the country again in the next future.

Kazakhstan is dealing with challenges in political and economic sphere existing in former Soviet space. The country, in addition, is facing some strategic bids directed to promote economic integration in the international markets and its worldwide image. For instance, Kazakh diplomacy is actively working for admission in the World Trade Organization and it has presented its candidacy for a seat as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the years 2017-2018.Moreover, among many relevant events scheduled in the country in the next years, Astana in 2017 will host the International Exposition while Almaty is one of the two candidate cities to host the 2022 Olympic Winter Games.

In this way, in the political establishment gained momentum the idea to ensure stability in phase of great transformations and challenges for the country.

Motivations for the early poll were linked to “technical” as also political and social reasons. One motivation is linked to the willingness to divide presidential and legislative elections, both scheduled for 2016, in order to prevent any sort of threat that could have led to political and institutional paralysis.

The second motivation is related with the increasing tensions in the world scenario and especially in the Eurasian context. The Ukrainian crisis and the current problems between Russia and the Western countries have put under pressure the Central Asian country, always devoted to pursue its “multi-vectorial” foreign policy of good relations with all the most important global players. Moreover, changes in the economic outlook, due to rising prices in the international market and devaluations of national and Russian currencies, have been valuated as possible sources of uncertainty for the next future.

Kazakhstan’s challenges in the next years will be aimed not only at consolidating the stability of the country, but also at establishing a new path of reforms that the presidential bloc is, with all the probabilities, called to implement. On April 11, at Nur Otan (Kazakh ruling party) Congress in Astana, Nursultan Nazarbayev accepted the proposal for candidacy advanced by the professor Kenzhegali Sagadiyev. With this move, there is no doubt about another landslide vicotry of the incumbent. Despite his long staying at power, the Head of the State still enjoys a widespread support throughout the country, thanks to economic and political successes and the objective weakness of the opposition side.

In his acceptance speech, Nazarbayev explained the necessity for the country not to stop its process of modernization, claiming that: “We cannot stand idle. We have to move forward availing on our success to strengthen our statehood”. He underlined the next years are going to assume a great relevance not only for the stability of the country, but also for the realization of a wider spectrum of reforms.The President, in fact, seemed more interested to illustrate the long term path than campaign promises, by identifying five fundamental points for the modernization: state apparatus and meritocracy; rule of law; industrialization and economic growth; strengthening Kazakhstani identity; transparent and accountable state

Among them, there are two key points of Nazarbayev’s presidency. The first, the continuation of the process of economic reforms started with new amendments on law on investments and the main economic development program “Nurly Jol”, within the strategic plan “Strategy 2050”, aimed to put the country among the top 30 world economies. The second, no less important, achievement of a multinational, tolerant and secular society where all the 130 ethnic and 17 religious communities can live in concord.

In addition, Kazakh President stressed the importance of combating corruption, the consolidation of rule of law, the professionalization and training of bureaucratic officials. There is a commitment for the introduction of scrutiny for state apparatus, meritocratic selection criteria and transparency. Moreover, these proposals for “openness” should extend also to political system.

In Nazarbayev’s view, new constitutional reforms should promote a progressive ceding of responsibilities and resources from state structures to regional ones and a transfer of power form the Presidency to the Government and the Parliament. The aim is the creation of a more balanced system of government with a clear division among state institutions, as only in part realized with the constitutional changes in 2007, when were introduced changes to electoral law and the relations between the Prime Minister and the Parliament.

If the calling of new presidential election can be analyzed recurring to motivations of economic stability and the maintenance of socio-political internal concord, the intervention of the President added new significances to the upcoming vote. The five structural areas of reforms listed by Nazarbayev mean the necessity, no longer possible to postpone, to implement a comprehensive package of institutional, administrative, judiciary and economic reforms in order to sustain the modernization of the country.

On one side, these proposals represent a fundamental step for the economic development of the country: after years of impressive growth due to high hydrocarbon prices, it is not possible to conceive a qualitative leap without a more efficient normative and bureaucratic framework.

From the other side, the provision for new constitutional changes could contribute to the improvement of political system. Of course, Nazarbayev’s speech must be analyzed considering the particular Eurasian context. The demand for an immediate introduction of the so called “Western democratic standards” could have a logic in theory but not necessarily in political reality. The choice made by Nazarbayev is the adoption of a gradual, progressive and “Kazakhstani” path of democratization to be completed in four or five decades: considering the work done from 1991 till today, it is possible to reduce this lapse of time to 15-20 years.

This may be not easy to understand for the West, but recent events have demonstrated   the failure of an immediate imposition of external cultural and political values not only in former USSR, but also in other parts of the world. Where the process of democratization ignored the establishment of strong institutions, the aspiration to democracy gave the way to chaos or, in the worst scenarios, new forms of authoritarianism. This kind of situation is what a country with such precious, but delicate, social and ethnic equilibrium needs to avoid. Abrupt, not programmed changes within this framework, in order to adhere to a precise political ideology, could lead to risks for the survival of the country.

If, as said before, Kazakhstan is in the middle of the path of modernization and the next election can be defined as another turning point in its history. Kazakhstan’s development from 1991 till today was characterized by the transition from socialist economy, the definition of a new “Eurasian” identity and the achievement of a notable position in the international community.

After the celebration of this election – and the extension of Nazarbayev’s presidency for another, and maybe the last, mandate – the “leader of the nation” will have to face one of the most delicate challenge: granting to his nation a “legacy” not only in terms of political succession, but also for durable, efficient and stable mechanisms of government. Only in this way, Kazakhstan can maintain and consolidate in the future the positive objectives achieved since independence, improving its position in the international arena and the world economy.

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Central Asia

Prevention and Encroachment of ISIS into Central Asia from Afghanistan

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Central Asia is a region that seems the next possible target for (Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham) ISIS. There can be different reasons behind it, but at the same time, it is a dilemma that either ISIS will be able to get into Central Asian Republics (CARs)? The main thing can be the geographic location and plans of ISIS that seems very interested in that region. Furthermore, we can see that Afghanistan shares a border with 3 out of 5 CARs that increase the threat of ISIS in the region. Soon after the creation of ISIS, they entered into Afghanistan and started their activities in eastern and northeastern parts of the country; however, after the takeover of the Taliban of Kabul, a number of suicide attacks happened in larger cities of Afghanistan which gives a clue of a more substantial presence of the group and their strength.

Most important tricks to prevent ISIS possible expansion into CARs states we should know about their recruitments policies. Nowadays, in the 21st century, media is considered a 4th organ of the state, and it is diverting people’s attention through different meanings to reach the end. Most importantly, I believe that media is a great tool that ISIS (K) uses to recruit foreign fighters; they disseminate information in different ways, especially through social media. But at the same time, we can see that some people in Central Asia feel neglected by the states, and discrimination is going on with them in different aspects of life. It might be socially, politically, and economically. It will not be an exaggeration to mention here that in this region (CARs), people are fed from the ongoing political systems where they are not enjoying the freedom of speech, no free media, political rivalries are almost unacceptable. There is no clear way to choose the successor for the state, though Kyrgyzstan is a kind of half democratic system, so all these aspects led people or compelled them to join such terrorist groups. It is worth mentioning that many Central Asians are working as labour migrants in different parts of the world, especially in Russia as Diasporas. They are sending a considerable amount of remittances into their leaving countries from Russia, but they are facing many issues there as well. Most important is the behaviour of the local people with whom they are working and some government departments as well. They are recruiting people mainly from the people going into mosques in Russia because they know that these people have an Islamic pan idea. 

Strategists should come with a clear stance to make a policy that helps states to avoid the access of ISIS in the region. International cooperation is necessary to prevent further expansion of this lethal terrorist organization. In this regard, in my view, the number of surgical strikes should be increased to demise this acute disease, not to convert it into a chronic situation. Major Powers like Russia, the USA, and China should come to a consensus on several Middle East and Afghanistan issues to eliminate them. It is also necessary to have strong border patrol guards to protect illegal crossing of borders and to stop the flow of Central Asian terrorists into Turkey and Afghanistan, which are the nearest ways to join them. Once they join ISIS, they can easily access Central Asia when they have local people from the region. I think policymakers should keep some triggering forces in mind like nationalism, ideology, morality, ideas, and most importantly, national interests that motivate policy to shape a comprehensive plan against ISIS. Fortunately, nationalism is decreasing, and Central Asian people may not have any pan Turkic ideas.      

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Central Asia

CICA Meeting Seeks to Update Regional Cooperation and Dialogue

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The world has recently experienced sharp challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic, while hopefully receding, has caused global economic problems that may take some time to resolve.

Meanwhile the crucial and dramatic changes in Afghanistan have clearly demonstrated that multilateralism has become the only possible approach to ensuring global stability, security and peace. Neither the pandemic and its consequences, nor regional tensions and crises can be resolved without dialogue and the cooperation of states at regional and global levels.

The influence of Asian countries in global developments will continue to increase due to the rapid economic and demographic growth of the region. Asia is on track to top 50 percent of global GDP by 2040. By that point, it is expected to account for 40 percent of the world’s total consumption. The region is making not only economic progress but rapid strides in human development. As noted by international observers, the question is no longer how quickly Asia will rise; it is how Asia will lead. Despite Asia’s remarkable rise, its family of nations are sometimes kept apart by difficult geography and even more difficult history.

For this reason, it is vital to ensure that there is space for Asian states to conduct dialogue in order to unite efforts on resolving key regional and global issues. The Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, an intergovernmental forum, is the most appropriate platform in the region to consolidate the collective wisdom of all Asian nations for peace, cooperation, security and development.

CICA has come a long way since the initiative to convene it was first proposed by the First President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, at the 47th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in October 1992. Today, almost 30 years later, CICA brings together 27 Member States. The region covered by CICA stretches from the Pacific to the Mediterranean and from the Ural to the Indian Ocean, covering more than 50 percent of the world’s population.

The establishment of the CICA forum emerged from the firm belief that international progress can come about only through strong and effective partnerships. Since the first ministerial meeting, which took place in 1999, CICA has strived to enhance cooperation through elaborating multilateral approaches towards promoting peace, security and stability in Asia.

Yet the world has changed dramatically in the past two decades. Asia has become a key driver of global economic growth and development. Multi-polarity has become the norm of international relations. Countries are actively cooperating thanks to globalization, yet at the same time nationalism is on the rise in many parts of the world. To adapt to these changes, the CICA forum must transform in order to continue to fulfil its important role.

Kazakhstan, as Chair of CICA for 2020-2022, has put forward a number of proposals aimed at making the forum more effective.

Firstly, we believe that it is time to gradually transform it into a fully-fledged international organisation that will be better equipped to cope with the fast-changing security environment and help to pursue developmental goals in our continent. CICA’s transformation into such an organisation will expand its capabilities to strengthen cooperation between the member states, cover the entire Asia with a system of deep mutual trust and mutual assistance, as well as increase its status and influence in the international arena.

Secondly, given the dramatic changes that impacted the world in the last two years, it is necessary to update the activities and areas of cooperation within CICA. Due to the threat of the current pandemic, as well as potential future health crises, it is necessary to consider the development of cooperation in the field of epidemiological security, public health and pharmaceuticals. In addition, digitalisation is an important field as the world moves further towards the use of digital technologies. We must also not forget about issues that have been of persistent importance over the last few years, including mitigating climate change, empowering women and youth.

Finally, given the global nature of current challenges, CICA and its member states must also focus on building partnership with other regional and global organisations, particularly the Eurasian Economic Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and others.

The overarching ambition of CICA is clear – to reduce global geopolitical tensions and threat of conflicts, and instead focus on collaboration and development, especially in Asia, where we share common values and aspirations. Ahead of the upcoming CICA Meeting of Foreign Ministers on 11-12 October in Kazakhstan, we must embrace the idea that CICA should be playing one of the key roles along with other international organisations in the region in achieving these common objectives. This will encourage Asian countries to build bridges among each other and shape a prosperous future in Asia.

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Central Asia

Mirziyoyev’s Uzbekistan: Marching Confidently Towards a Brighter Future

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As Uzbekistan celebrates 30 years of independence from former USSR, it is also the time that the nation is completing five years of rule by incumbent president Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

Mirziyoyev took power in September 2016, when the country’s first president – Islam Karimov, having ruled since 1991 – passed away, what was seen as a big shock for the entire nation. Since then, Mirziyoyev – elected formally to the presidency later that year – not only steered his nation out of that shock but also put the country on the road to globally-acknowledged reforms, uplift and progress.

Past five years have been a period of extraordinary reform, development and international prestige for this most populous nation of Central Asia. The new leader laid the foundation of a ‘New Uzbekistan’ with broad-based, comprehensive, inclusive and all-encompassing reforms in economic, political and social spheres.

Economic reforms were aimed primarily at liberalization of economy, moving towards free-market systems and regulations. These have born fruits significantly, with country’s economy growing at a healthy average rate, over past years. Output augmented – both in agriculture, and industrial sectors – and per capita incomes increased notably. Confidence of local and foreign investors in Uzbek economy deepened and international institutions started looking towards the country as a new bright spot for regional growth. Welfare of the people, especially the working class, has been put at the centre stage in these sets of reforms.

The democratic reforms, also seen as a model for the region by international observers, revolve around decentralization of power, political inclusiveness and transparency of the electoral processes. This transparency and fairness of electoral processes is noted with appreciation by all those observing the country’s political transformation. At the heart of this scheme of political reform lies the awareness and greater participation of masses, country’s people from all backgrounds and regions, in the political processes. All the segments of society feel the benefits of this process of political reform pouring down in the form of political empowerments at grassroots.

The country has emerged as one of the most attractive tourist destinations not only in the region but in the whole world. Much of it owes to focused development of tourism of ziaraats, as the country boats a rich cultural and religious heritage – making it a magnet for a large number of people from around the Muslim world, especially from countries such as Pakistan. Uzbekistan Airways, the national flag-carrier, is now one of the most important airlines connecting a sizeable number of countries and regions.

At international stage, country’s prestige has continuously been enhancing during past half a decade.  Mirziyoyev played a vital role in bringing the leaders of other four Central Asian republic to table, for re-start of the negotiations for the region’s integration. Uzbekistan’s efforts in this period for Afghanistan’s peace and stability and providing the Afghan people with an unattached opening towards Central Asia are noteworthy.

Uzbek president in recent couple of years has played a leading role for the whole wider region by promoting re-initiation and strengthening longstanding bonds and connectivity between Central and South Asia. The July 2021 conference held in Tashkent turned out to be the largest such initiative by Uzbek leadership under Mirziyoyev. Not only Pakistani PM and the then Afghan president were present but ministerial level leaders from some 30 countries and heads of several major international organizations also participated in the mega forum. I have no hesitation in saying that 2021 conference in Tashkent aimed at Central and South Asia connectivity has already started a journey that would not be stopped now; no matter how the things shape in the region. Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway would be the flagship imove of this journey.

As mentioned above, the reforms’ being all-encompassing may be witnessed from the special focus and attention on development of mass media, arts, sports and cultural activities – including the preservation and development of cultures of all the ethnic groups of the nation.

In the nutshell, Uzbekistan of today has assumed a much more vital position in the affairs of the region. The country’s people are now living peaceful, prosperous, content and confidence-filled lives, also basking in increasing international glory of their nation. The journey is all set to continue towards greater achievements and a brighter future.

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