Israel parliamentary elections of March 17 were won by Likud (centre-right party) that was able to conquer 30 mandates (out of 120) on an electoral night that began with a neck to neck race. Almost 24% (23.40%) of the electors in Israel decided not to punish Likud for calling election two years ahead schedule allowing the ruling party to have twelve more representatives at the Knesset (Israeli Parliament).
The Zionist Union (centre-left party), considered the main opposition bloc to the incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, came in second with less than 19% of the votes (18.67%) and 24 mandates conquered. In an election clearly marked by ethnic and religious concerns, the third place was for The Joint List, an alliance of four mainly-Arab parties, that secured 13 seats with more than 10% (10.54%) of the casted votes.
The new legislative session at the Knesset will also have representatives from seven other political forces: Yesh Atid (11 seats; 8.81%); Kulanu (10 seats; 7.49%); Bayit Yehudi (8 seats; 6.74%); Shas (7 seats; 5.73%); Yisrael Beytenu (6 seats; 5.11%); United Torah Judaism (6 seats; 5.03%) Meretz (5 seats; 3.93%). The election of March 17, 2015, registered an impressive turnout of 72.3%, an increase of 4.5% when compared with the legislative scrutiny of 2013.
The progress of turnout in Israel, quite interestingly, does not show any sort of electoral fatigue like registered in several Western countries. Israeli citizens seem to value democratic institutions, although to several analysts it is clear that voting happens due to nationalistic-conservatism (the need to protect someone’s identity) than to a firm belief on democracy in itself. The mere fact that several jewish orthodox parties gained mandates against the more ideological and less religious based parties seems to prove the dominance of national-conservatism over democracy-defenders.
Minor changes but no transformation
Israel parliamentary elections were supposed to happen only on 2017 but strong disagreements inside the five-parties ruling coalition, that supported the thirty third government of Israel, led the Prime Minister Netanyahu (Likud) to fire the Minister of Justice, Tzipi Livni (Hatnuah) and the Minister of Finance, Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) on December 2, 2014 a few hours after announcing his intention to present a dissolution bill at the Knesset.
Tension regarding budgetary affairs and the so-called “Jewish State Law” (bill that aims to codify Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish people) were the main drive behind the dissolution bill, that was approved on December 8. The eclectic political arena of Israel began moving really fast. Opposition leader Isaac Herzog (Labor Party) invited Livni to form the Zionist Union, that performed quite well on several polls before the elections.
The snap elections also brought the novelty of an alliance of four mainly-pro-Arab parties (Balad, Hadash, Ta’al, United Arab List): The Joint List. The alliance was formed due to three reasons: 1.) the understanding that several small Arab parties at the Knesset are a less efficient way to advance the Arab agenda in Israel; 2.) fear that the new threshold (that in March 2014 increased from 2% to 3.25%) would lead to less Arab representatives; 3.) The Joint List can also be seen as a symbolic reply of Arab politicians to the “Jewish State Law”.
The Law, that was immediately criticised by several Western politicians, is seen as a back step against the chance to achieve any sort of peace with the Palestinians. The law also introduces several concerns regarding the capacity of Israel to continue to be a multi-ethnoreligious space, since one ethnoreligious identity (Jewish) will be constitutionally the “owner” of Israel over all other ethnoreligious identities (mainly Muslims, Christians, Samaritans and Caucasian exiled groups). How will a strict-nation-state be in position to negotiate peace with the “other” that is not perceived politically as an equal?
The closer the election day the more mind-puzzling were the polls. No outcome could be predicted and that made the incumbent Prime-Minister very nervous. To the surprise of Washington and many other Western allies, in the end of the campaign Netanyahu stated that there would be no Palestinian state during his mandate, in what was a clear “blink-of-an-eye” to the centre-right-to- right parties that could tip the scale is his favour.
The statement was immediately denounced, by several regional leaders, as clear evidence of the unwillingness of Tel Aviv’s political elite to find a suitable solution to end the everlasting peace negotiations with the Palestinians. Internationally several politicians criticised the remarks of Netanyahu, arguing that they do not help the already tricky peace deal negotiations. Despite all the external criticism, the diplomatically perilous bet paid off on a domestic level.
Interestingly, the incumbent Prime Minister was not only “flirting” with the pro-Zionist centre-right- to-right parties but also with Reuven Rivlin, President of Israel, that is known to be a critic of the two-states solution advocated by Brussels and Washington. The electorate gave to Netanyahu what he ultimately wanted: and that was not the victory of Likud but the defeat of the Zionist Union. Netanyahu knew that if the Zionist Union would come in second, Likud would be in a better position to negotiate with the other pro-Zionist centre-right-to-right parties posed to win seats at the 34th legislative session at the Knesset.
Let the negotiations begin
Formally speaking, Netanyahu was only be invited by President Rivlin to form government, after the scrutiny of March 17, on March 25. The incumbent Prime Minister will have until April 22 to conclude the coalition deals and ministerial posts distribution. The deadline can, nonetheless, be extended to May 6 if needed. A national government with the Zionist Union is not discarded but the chances of that to materialise are slim, at best.
The new governmental coalition will most probably include Kulanu (whose leader is expected to become the new Finance Minister), Bayit Yehudi (whose leader is inclined towards the Defence and Foreign Affairs ministries but Netanyahu aims to have him with the Education post), Shas (that is seeking to secure positions at the Interior and Religious Services ministries) United Torah Judaism (with clear interest on the Health portfolio) and Yisrael Beytenu (whose leader aims to be Defence Minister despite Netanyahu’s apparent unwillingness to comply).
Although the new governmental coalition is still under negotiation what seems clear is that Tel Aviv political scenario did not changed that much with the snap elections. Likud remains in power with a deeper entrenchment in the electorate; ethnic/religious devisions are now wider and not narrower; national unity (that can only be achieved via an inclusive dialogue) remains a non-priority and the settlement of the Palestinian Affair is doomed to continue on murky waters.
Elections in Israel also showed the double standards of Western countries in what regards the defence of democratic principles. The same West that is always so vocal against the vibrant rhetoric of Hungary’s Jobik or against the nationalistic-ultraconservative style of France’s Le Pen seemed to be unable (or unwilling) to criticise the virulent nationalistic rhetoric adopted by Likud’s leader in the end of the electoral race. This double standards however are dangerous in a time in which basic pillars of democracy are being challenged by multiple contenders!