“Be more like us” say German policymakers to their EU partners. But Philippe Legrain warns that appearances can be deceptive as Germany suffers from stagnant wages, broken banks, inadequate investment, poor productivity growth, a dismal demographic outlook and anaemic output growth
When Germany won the World Cup last summer, it wasn’t just the soccer fans who rejoiced; most Germans are convinced that their economy too is a world-beater. Finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble boasts of it as Europe’s most successful economy, and German policymakers lecture their neighbours on the need to be more Germanic. Chancellor Angela Merkel celebrated her re-election 18 months ago by saying, “What we have done, everyone else can do.”
Not just can do, must do: Germany is using its clout in the EU’s institutions to try to reshape the eurozone in its own image. But the truth is that far from being successful, Germany’s economy is dysfunctional – so trying to impose its model on the eurozone is dangerous for Europe and potentially damaging for the rest of the world.
Germany’s economy is dysfunctional – so trying to impose its model on the eurozone is dangerous for Europe and potentially damaging for the rest of the world
If you drive a Volkswagen or a BMW, and have a house full of Bosch or Miele appliances, it is easy to leap to the conclusion that Germany’s economy is a hot ticket. Appearances can be deceptive, for Germany also suffers from stagnant wages, broken banks, inadequate investment, poor productivity growth, a dismal demographic outlook and anaemic output growth. Merkel’s mercantilist model, which involves suppressing wages to subsidise exports, is beggaring Germans and also their neighbours.
Back at the euro’s launch in 1999, Germany was being dismissed as the “sick man of Europe”. Its economy was stagnant and there were four million unemployed. The German myth is that thanks to Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s labour-market reforms a decade ago, the country is now, in economic terms, an Olympic athlete. While it is true that unemployment has plunged with millions of Germans finding low-paid and often part-time “mini-jobs”, the rest of its economic record is unimpressive.
Germany’s economy is once again stagnant: it was no bigger in the third quarter of 2014 than six months earlier. Since the crisis struck in early 2008, it has grown by 3.1%, which isn’t as awful as the rest of the eurozone but a bit less than Britain and only half as much as Sweden, Switzerland and the United States, the epicentre of the financial earthquake. Since 1999, Germany’s GDP growth has averaged only 1.2% a year, placing it 14th out of what until this January had been the 18 countries in the eurozone, less than France and well behind Britain (1.7%) and America (1.9%).
With global demand weak, the eurozone as a whole cannot rely on exports as a way of growing out of its debts
Germany has not become more dynamic since the sick-man era; it has simply cut costs. Businesses have stopped investing and so has the government. Investment has plunged from 22.3% of GDP to 17% in 2013 – lower even than in Italy. After years of neglect, infrastructure is crumbling: highways, bridges over the Rhine, even the crucial trade artery of the Kiel Canal that connects the North Sea to the Baltic. The education system is flagging too, with the number of its much-vaunted apprentices at a post-reunification low. The country has proportionately fewer young graduates (29%) than Greece (34%), and its top-rated university ranks 49th globally.
Handicapped by under-investment, Germany’s sclerotic economy struggles to adapt. Despite Schröder’s reforms, it is harder to lay off a permanent employee than in any other OECD country. Starting a business is a nightmare: Germany ranks 114th place globally, behind Tajikistan and Lesotho, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business rankings. No wonder 50,000 German entrepreneurs have emigrated to Silicon Valley. Its major corporations are all old and entrenched; there is no German Google – its nearest equivalent in business software, SAP, was founded in 1972. The services sector – over three-fifths of the economy – is particularly hidebound. Productivity in those sectors – everything from transport to telecoms – is often dismal, not least because they tend to be tied up in German officialdom’s red tape.
The regulation of professional services is stricter than in all but five of the 27 countries ranked by the OECD. In the liberal professions, which account for a tenth of the economy, strict rules dictate who may offer what sort of service, the level of charges allowed for professionals and how they may advertise. Only qualified pharmacists, for example, can own a pharmacy, and they are each limited to four outlets. Other shops may not compete, even for non-prescription drugs. The government has itself also become complacent, introducing fewer pro-growth reforms over the past seven years than any other advanced economy, again according to the OECD. The upshot is that productivity growth has averaged only 0.9% a year over the past decade, less even than in Portugal.
The country’s policymakers should focus on boosting productivity, not “competitiveness”, with workers paid their due
German workers have paid the price for this poor performance. Starting with the corporatist agreement struck between government, companies and unions back in 1999, wages have been artificially held down. While German workers’ productivity has advanced by 17.8% over the past 15 years, their pay has actually fallen when set against inflation. Schäuble and others perversely celebrate this wage stagnation as part of Germany’s superior competitiveness, but countries are not companies. While a business owner may wish to minimise wage costs, for society as a whole wages are not costs to be minimised but benefits to be maximised, provided they are justified by productivity. Suppressing wages also harms the economy’s longer-term prospects, because it erodes incentives for workers to upgrade their skills and businesses to invest in moving upmarket.
Stagnant wages sap domestic demand, and have left Germany reliant on exports for its growth. And exports have indeed doubled since 2000, subsidised by Germans’ artificially low wages and with the euro itself providing a triple boost: it has been much less buoyant than the Deutschmark, it has prevented French and Italian competitors from devaluing and until recently it provided booming export markets in southern Europe. Germany has also been lucky because its traditional exports – capital goods, engineering products and chemicals – are precisely those that China needed for its breakneck industrial development since the turn of the 21st Century.
With southern Europe now in a slump and with China’s growth slowing and shifting towards services, the German export machine is beginning to sputter. Its share of global exports fell from 9.1% in 2007 to 8% in 2013, as low as in its sick-man era. Since cars and other “made in Germany” exports now contain many parts and components produced in central and eastern Europe, Germany’s export share is, in value-added terms, at a record low.
Germany’s export obsession has resulted in a whopping current-account surplus of $289.6bn up to October last year, dwarfing even China’s $206bn in the year to the third quarter and exceeding 7% of GDP. Schäuble and others see this surplus as emblematic of Germany’s superior competitiveness. But if Germany is so competitive, why don’t more businesses want to invest there?
Germany’s huge surplus is in fact a symptom of a sick economy. Stagnant wages swell corporate surpluses, while subdued spending, a stifled services sector and stunted start-ups suppress domestic investment, with the resulting surplus savings often squandered overseas. A study by the DIW economic research institute in Berlin suggests that Germany lost €600bn, the equivalent of 22% of GDP, on the valuation of its foreign portfolio investments between 2006 and 2012.
Compressing wages to subsidise exports is bad for Germany and disastrous for the rest of the eurozone. Far from being an “anchor of stability” as Schäuble claims, Germany is spreading instability. German banks’ reckless lending of excess savings to southern Europe financed property bubbles in Spain and Ireland, funded a consumer boom in Portugal and lent the Greek government the rope with which to hang itself. Then, since these bubbles burst, Germany has exported debt deflation. Nor is Germany a “growth locomotive” for the Eurozone; on the contrary, its weak domestic demand is a drag on growth elsewhere, this making it less likely that German banks and taxpayers will recover their loans to southern Europe.
Foisting the German model onto the rest of the eurozone risks making matters worse. It is a myth that wages in southern Europe are too high; they fell as a share of GDP everywhere in the pre-crisis years. Slashing them further is depressing domestic spending and making debt burdens harder to bear than ever. With global demand weak, the eurozone as a whole cannot rely on exports as a way of growing out of its debts. For struggling southern European economies whose traditional exports have been undercut by Chinese and Turkish competition, the solution is not to try to produce the same old products at much lower wages, but rather to invest in moving up the value chain so as to produce new and better products for higher wages.
Trying to turn the eurozone into a greater Germany is also harmful for the rest of the world – not least Britain, the eurozone’s biggest trading partner. Stagnant demand crimps other countries’ exports. The eurozone’s $327.3bn (and rising) current account surplus is also so vast that it risks provoking protectionist responses. Meanwhile, German capital that once gushed into southern Europe is now being sprayed around elsewhere, with Germany’s notoriously badly-managed banks misallocating capital more broadly than ever.
Germany’s economic model urgently needs to be overhauled. The country’s policymakers should focus on boosting productivity, not “competitiveness”, with workers paid their due. Unleashing competition and enterprise would be a good place to start. With a balanced budget, a triple-A credit rating and a stagnant economy, the government should take advantage of near-zero interest rates to invest, and encourage businesses – especially start-ups – to do likewise. Germany would also do well to welcome more dynamic young immigrants to stem its demographic decline. That would be good for Germany, a better example for the eurozone and a welcome boost for the global economy.
This article first appeared in the Spring 2015 issue of Europe’s World. Reposted per author’s permission.
Report: CPEC offers enormous potential to Boost Pakistan Economy
With investments in road, railways and ports, the $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) offers enormous potential for Pakistan to boost its economy, reduce poverty, spread benefits widely and help those likely to be affected by the new trade route, a new report says.
The report, entitled “The Web of Transport Corridors in South Asia”, published by the Asian Development Bank, the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, and the World Bank, discusses several economic corridors including CPEC
“The largest economic gains from investing in transport corridors may arise from urbanization and job creation around this new infrastructure, rather than from many more vehicles using it”, said one of the report’s authors, World Bank economist Martin Melecky, who added: “not all corridor investments are equally successful in creating large economic surpluses that spread fairly throughout society.”
The report notes that the many transport corridors proposed across Asia would cost trillions of dollars to implement, far exceeding the financing resources available. Hence, countries need to prioritize the most promising corridors that will deliver the expected transformative impacts for their economies and people. Engineering designs and geopolitical considerations could be important, but sound economic analysis is the key to designing truly successful corridors, the report argues.
The ability of large-scale transport investments to generate wider economic benefits depends on the population density in the areas they cross. Their capacity to spur structural transformation along the way depends on complementary factors around the transport corridors, such as the skills of the local population or restrictions on local land use. The new transport infrastructure must come with the means for people to take advantage of the improved connectivity right from the start.
“The upcoming Khyber Pass Economic Corridor project is a positive example, where trade facilitation and the development of local economic activities are explicitly integrated in the design of the project”, said Illango Patchamuthu, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan.
The report reviews the international experience with economic corridors, from the Pacific Ocean Belt in Japan in the 1960s to high-speed train networks in Europe more recently. It also analyzes the impacts of the Golden Quadrilateral highway system in India and finds positive effects, including higher economic activity and better (non-farm) jobs for women. However, air pollution rose in parallel and gains in household consumption were not equally shared across connected districts. Appraisal simulations for CPEC and the Kolkata-Dhaka corridor suggest that complementary measures are needed to improve local conditions that in turn will create formal jobs and generate tax revenues that could pay for corridor investments.
In light of the international evidence and specific analyses for South Asia, the report advocates for a more comprehensive design of corridor programs that actively manages tradeoffs and closes potential financing gaps in a sustainable manner.
Good Tourism Practices to Advance Sustainable Development in the Americas
Concrete examples of how to advance sustainable development through tourism take centre stage in the first joint publication between the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the Organization of American States (OAS). ‘Tourism and the Sustainable Development Goals: Good Practices in the Americas’ provides 14 case studies from across the region on why tourism ranks high among the economic sectors better positioned to enable the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
Ranging from tourism projects to strengthen the peace process in Colombia to initiatives in the heart of the Peruvian Amazon, addressing climate change in Mexico or providing insight into management and sustainability systems in Honduras or Panama. A total of 14 case studies portray the contribution of tourism to advance the Sustainable Development Goals in the Americas.
‘Tourism and the Sustainable Development Goals: Good Practices in the Americas’ recommends to pay critical attention to tourism management as well as to strengthening partnerships between national and international public and private stakeholders, as well as local communities. The report also addresses the emergence of a more responsible traveler and how destinations in the region should integrate resource efficiency and multi-stakeholder involvement in their policies, actions and initiatives.
“With more than 200 million international tourists who traveled to the Americas in 2017, tourism can and must play a significant role in delivering solutions for sustainable development in the region”, said UNWTO Secretary-General, Zurab Pololikashvili. “I am grateful for the partnership with the Organization of American States and am confident that together we will support tourism’s role in the sustainable development agenda of the region up to and beyond 2030”, he added.
According to the Executive Secretary for Integral Development of the OAS, Kim Osborne, this joint effort “provides greater awareness on how tourism can help address poverty alleviation, protect biodiversity and cultural heritage, and support community development in the Americas”.
Authorities at all levels in the Americas have identified tourism as a priority sector to promote economic development and diversification and countries across the region are adopting new legislation and policies in this direction. Against this backdrop, ‘Tourism and the Sustainable Development Goals: Good Practices in the Americas’ provides insight into how a common approach – including policy makers, private sector, tourists and the development community – can catalyze sustainable development through tourism.
The report was presented during the 2018 Inter-American Congress of Ministers and High-level Authorities of Tourism, under the theme ‘Connecting the Americas through sustainable tourism’.
Azerbaijan’s geo-economic expansion prospects: Conventional or emerging markets?
In the background of global geo-economic shifting, nation states confront significant challenges in terms of appropriate positioning. In case of Azerbaijan, these challenges are also related to regional geopolitical imbalances as well as structural problems existing in the national economy.
Throughout its independence, Azerbaijan has pursued the way to formulate its foreign economic relations through maximizing its economic benefits in the context of achieving relevance to its national interests. Indeed, country’s geographical location and economic strength gained thanks to oil boom gave birth to the possibility of formulation of Azerbaijan as a regional geo-economic pivot.
Azerbaijan iscurrently conducting multi-vectorial geo-economic development strategy in order to maximize its geographic advantages as well as maintaining better positioning in the framework of massive realignments observing in global economic architecture.Looking through of the policy frameworks which encapsulate country’s medium and long-term economic vision, it becomes obvious that Azerbaijan will continue to adjust these strategies to the “new game rules” of geo-economic shifting.
However, it should also be mentioned that in some cases, Azerbaijan’s geographic location takes part as an impediment rather than advantage.Referring to conventional understanding of the concept of “space”, Azerbaijan has only limited number of spaces in which geo-economic sustainability can be realized. However, shifting from geopoliticsrelying on the dominance over geographic basins to the geo-economics which relying on controlling financial and trade flows creates an excellent opportunity for Azerbaijan to tackle with this problem. In this regard, it should be emphasized that successful realization of trade-logistics and energy transport projects in recent years have created a sound ground to continue geo-economic expansion in the new stage of economic development. But the question currently standing in front of this expansion strategy is that which markets or “geo-economic spaces” should be main target?
Assessment of trans-regional projects initiated or supported by Azerbaijan during last two decades indicate that these initiatives are mainly directed to mitigate EU’s dependence on several routes or building an appropriate infrastructure to bolster these countries’ trade relations with Central Asian countries. This factor was strategically and economically beneficial for Azerbaijan in terms of getting better access to European markets and eliminating infrastructural backwardness inherited from Soviets. However, as aforementioned, current realignments in geo-economic landscape make it necessity to add new directions and quality features to the geo-economic expansion strategy of the country.
In this regard, Strategic Road Map for the perspectives of the national economy which approved by President Ilham Aliyev in late 2016 can be accepted as a reliable guide to find answer to the question put above. It is not secret that in recent years, we are observing geo-economic shifting from Euro-Atlantic region to the Asia-Pasific. This shifting is gradual and time-consuming process and cannot be constrained only by Chinese economic expansion or South Korean success story.
According to the World Bank, over the next three years the $75 trillion global economy will expand by more than $6.5 trillion in size. It is also estimated that China and India will be among Top 3 contributors to real GDP growth predicted for 2018-2020 while Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan will be also among major contributors.Furthermore, emerging and developing Asia seems will be achieved to quadruple its share in global GDP based on PPP during 1980-2020.
In the light of these figures, it can be put forward that Azerbaijan can take more benefits through getting better access to these emerging Asian markets. Furthermore, taking into consideration country’s medium and long-term economic vision in which acceleration of joining to global value chains has been mentioned as one of the strategic targets,integration to these markets promise more economic gains. The scale of these gains will not be constrained only in the framework of monetary or financial units. Particularly, significant progress achieved in realization of North-South and East-West transport corridors in recent years, additionally much brighter prospective transport projects which are expected to be realizedin the near future will lead to increase Azerbaijan’s geo-economic importance. This achievement can be accepted as a result of continuous efforts made by Azerbaijan during last two decades. As mentioned by President Aliyev, situated between Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan will continue to use wisely its geographical location to become one of the leading transportation hubs in Eurasia. Pursuant to his opinions, it is highly predictable that Azerbaijan geo-economic expansion will continue in accordance with regional and global economic landscape movements.
Getting efficient positioning in regional integration movements which dominantly shaping under priority of national interests is one of the key directions of Azerbaijan’s geo-economic expansion strategy.In this regard, preserving independence in integration processes is one of the significant imperatives in Azerbaijan’s foreign economic and trade relations.It is worth to mention that Azerbaijan, unlike to some of other region countries, still preserves independence in making choices regarding with integration movements. Therefore, Azerbaijan’s current stance lets us put forward the idea that consistence of joining to such type of integration movements with the country’s strategic foreign and domestic economic targets is more deterministic imperative rather than nominal participation.This hypothesisalso involves some insights regarding with the issue that in which direction geo-economic expansion ought to be continued in the following years.
On the macroeconomic and foreign trade perspective, it is worth to emphasize that Azerbaijan has achieved significant growth rates during 2004-2014. After some adverse effects of oil price crunch after 2014 Azerbaijan economy is currently in the process of adjusting new equilibrium points.This process is conducting not only through improving macroeconomic indicators, but also through making changes in geographic orientation of the country’s foreign trade relations. According to the official figures, the share of Asian markets is averagely 38% in exports and 39% in imports. However, analyzing of commodity structure of this trade turnover exhibits that in exports low value-added commodities dominate while in imports particularly medium and high value added ones take the lion share. This structure of trade relations with Asian countries brings forth some challenges in terms of diversifying commodity structure of exports as well as increasing turnover with these emerging economies. Therefore, in the context of geo-economic expansion, it would be more reasonable for Azerbaijan to pay much attention to join global value chains appearing in these markets. Additionally, thanks to already finished and prospective trade-logistics and transportation projects, Azerbaijan’s opportunities to benefit from new trade reality which involves geographical fragmentation of production is increasing. This new reality offers to accelerate diversification of economy with limited resources avoiding from conventional barriers existing in small economies such as Azerbaijan.
Finally, Azerbaijan seems very determined to become a geo-economic pivot in its region relying on its comprehensive and continuous development strategies and rising international economic competitiveness which achieved during recent years. This deterministic stance will continue through shifting beyond a new quality stage of geo-economic expansion in the era of formulation multipolar global economic order. This shifting additionally requires revision of geographic expansion postulates of the country’s geo-economic development strategies. The characteristics of this revisionwill be determined by systemic realignments in the global economy.
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