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Poland, the last bulwark against Russian aggression?

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With the beginning of a new year with all its new hopes and new fears, one cannot help but worry about Putin’s next political move.The year 2014 witnessed Russia claiming power over the Crimea, destabilizing the Eastern Ukraine and President Putin directing increasing aggression at the Baltic States.

These Cold War antics have left the majority of the members of the Atlantic Alliance feeling vulnerable, Poland however, with its position on the Alliance’s central front, does have the military strength to stop any Russian moves heading west.

When the Red Army failed to march through Warsaw in 1920, Poland became a symbol for the safeguarding of Europe from a Moscow invasion.The Polish military understood their eastern enemy better than anyone else, and with this re-emergence of Russian aggression in the region Poland once again has to call on its historical experience to ensure its main military priority is to check and defeat any military moves Russia makes against Poland. Though political times have changed however; recently the former Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has been left feeling disappointed at the Obama administration’s rejection of his advice to upgrade the Alliance’s defences in the East. This is a huge error as Poland’s ability to defend itself from its eastern bully is of considerable importance to countries far beyond that of the Polish borders. The soft play tactics of speeches and military visits employed by President Obama will impress the Western media but they look laughable on Russian TV screens, as an ever emboldened Putin realizing that the military will of the West has been eroded by years of unsuccessful and unpopular wars.

I’ve begun to ask myself, is it really the case that the West will repeat its actions of the Second World War by abandoning Poland to defend itself from Russia?Even if NATO gallops to the rescue of its Iraq War ally, will the Polish armed forces be capable to cope on its own until the cavalry arrive?

One has to remember that Poland and Estonia are the only Eastern Alliance members that take NATO obligations seriously, however there still remains an issue of size. The Polish military has only 120,000 active duty troops, with less than 48,000 troops in the ground forces, and even with the formation of the National Reserve Force adding an additional 20,000 army volunteers, these numbers are still not enough. Yes sometimes quality can compensate for quantity but Poland will need to do far more than simply replace its Soviet-style armor. The best it can do now without NATO’s assistance is to continue to extend its home guard forces and maintain its production of paramilitary units so, should the Russians come, there will be a new force such as the legendary Home Army that once resisted a Nazi occupation.

But is the threat of a Russian invasion a serious concern? Poland has been invaded and occupied by countries since its founding almost a millennia ago. The answer is YES! The consequences of a second “Russification” is just too a distressing an idea for Poles, especially to the older generations who know the Soviet cultural assimilation process far too well. One would be a fool to think that Putin’s aggressive maneuvers directed at the Eastern Frontier are just Polish oversensitivity. Oversensitivity or not, Poles understand that Article 5 of the Atlantic Treaty only works as a dampener and looking back at history there is much doubt about NATO’s enthusiasm to jump to Poland’s rescue. During the 1939 Nazi-Soviet invasion, Europe was happy to sit back and watch Poland become dismembered, with both France and the United Kingdom taking a witnesses’ stand by, refusing to aid Poland. The promised rescue force that never came is still well remembered in Polish minds.

This may explain the Eastern European skepticism directed at NATO’s role in defending the region. While President Obama may be popular with the younger generations, the Polish officials on the right think less favorably of the Democrat. Obama’s decision to cancel the missile defense system, along with making remarks about Stalin’s anniversary of the Polish invasion have all been insults that have added to past injuries. There is a growing sense of hopelessness and anti-climax with Washington’s foreign policy. Ever since the Russo-Ukrainian War began the Polish nation has started to raise doubts over Obama’s willingness to honor Article 5 and, sadly, European people know that the simple fact is that without American participation there is no real NATO.

There is no doubt about Vladimir Putin’s burning desire to break the North Atlantic Alliance, and America’s countless promises and pretty TV performances are not adequate military assistance to counter this.

In the end, even though we hope it never comes to it, Poland needs to accept the fact that they will have to resist the Russians alone.

 

first published in one-europe.info

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Le Pen’s under-plot for the French President

Mohammad Ghaderi

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The President of the French National Rally political party, Marin Le Pen, is trying to take little stances on the new protests in her country. Some French politicians have accused her of interfering in the recent protests in favor of the French National Rally. Meanwhile, many analysts believe that, ultimately, the outcome of Macron’s removal from power will be the presence of far-right nationalists (led by Le Pen) at the Elysees Palace.

 In any case, Marin Le Pen and the French National Rally continue to make lots of propaganda in their country’s political and social atmosphere. It should be acknowledged that the recent protests in France have doubled their chance to win the public vote, and he has greatly encouraged Le Pen and her entourage to win the European parliamentary election which is to be held in June.

In 2014, the French National Rally was able to shine exceptionally well in the European parliamentary elections and overcome other French political parties. In the 2017 general election, Le Pen was able to reach the final round of the presidential competitions for the first time since the establishment of the French National Rally. However, at that time, Le Pen couldn’t act against the broad opposition of the Socialist and Conservative parties. But the equation seems to have changed now!

Polls conducted in France suggested a decline in the popularity of Emmanuel Macron as the country’s president. This is while only 18 months has passed since Macron’s presence at Elysee Palace. Under such circumstances, Le Pen and her companions will naturally try to change the French citizen’s mind to the benefit of the French National Rally.

 This is a very good time indeed, as many of the French citizens no longer trust Macron and his promises for making economic, social reforms in France. Le Pen and the senior members of the French National Rally, argue that the Socialist and Conservative Parties won’t be able to redefine themselves in the near future, given the crisis that has stuck the two traditional French parties.

 The removal of Socialist and Conservative candidates in the 2017 general election, was well indicating the political and social isolation of these two traditional parties in French society. As a result, French citizens should once again choose between Macron and Le Pen. Le Pen believes that indicating a new face in France political scene as an independent politician is not possible under the current situation, and that’s because the bitter experience of Macron’s presence at the Elysée Palace prevents the formation of such a phenomenon.

 Le Pen is now trying to remove Macron from power through holding an early elections; “It is necessary to implement proportional representation and dissolve the National Assembly in order to hold new proportional elections”.

 Simultaneously, she attempts to attract the attention of French citizens to herself as France’s next president.

“We believe that the way out of the crisis is essentially political. This decision excludes any use of violence that only adds chaos to adversity,” Le Pen said in a letter published on the party’s website.

Le Pen also emphasized that the political solution to the recent crisis depended on the French officials, while uttering that French President Emmanuel Macron “is deprived of sympathy for the people, constrained by arrogance and indifference of the elites.”

It is not clear, however, that Le Pen’s calculations would all come true. The French National Rally President opened a special account on Macron’s former supporters to change their minds, and as a result, their votes to her benefit! This is while some of these votes may turn into silent votes or white votes.

 Also, it’s quite possible that France political atmosphere in 2017, would once again repeat in 2022, or during the country’s possible early elections. In this case, to right-wing extremists of French National Rally are going to lose the elections again. Therefore, Le Pen is really cautious about her positions right now, though she believes that Macron’s incapability provided the ground for her political and social success in Paris.

First published in our partner Tehran Times

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Will there be another referendum over Brexit?

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Brexit continues to be an implicit term in the Britain’s political equations. Complicating the process of the British withdrawal from the European Union is a joint measure taken by the British government and European authorities.

At the same time, the British government, with its widespread negative propaganda against the Brexit, is seeking to re-arrange a referendum. In other words, the European authorities are trying to direct the public opinion about the Brexit.

Recently, some western news sources are speaking of an issue called “repeating the Brexit referendum”, and name it as a possible option! An option that had been previously denied by British authorities, including Theresa May, the Prime Minister of the country. According to the France news agency, regarding the increasing doubt about the British Prime Minister’s efforts to conclude an agreement with the United Europe, the possibility of holding a second referendum on Brexit has multiplied.

This source has also announced that there are major obstacles on the way of confirming this agreement between Theresa May and European leaders, which has, in turn, intensified this trend. The existence of legal complexities in this agreement made its implementation difficult for both sides.  Meanwhile, it is possible that the members of the parliament will vote in favor of Theresa May’s decision.

Although it seems that Theresa May is trying to convince legislators to give a positive vote to this agreement, not only members of the Labor Party, but also some members of the Conservative Party are opposing it. The MPs argue that the Brexit is basically contrary to the interests of the UK.

Meanwhile, supporters of the “People’s Vote” campaign, who are now very active in England, believe that the parliament’s negative vote will pave the way for a new referendum on the Brexit. This issue is no way contrary to the demands of Theresa May and the Conservative Party, but it’s secretly supported by them. The negative propaganda of the Theresa May’s government against the Brexit since 2016 is known to everyone. After the British citizens voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the two Labor and Conservative parties (as UK’s two traditional parties) tried their best to change the general vote on this issue. The active role played by people like former British Prime Minister Tony Blair can well indicate the dissatisfaction among British authorities over the Brexit.

Supporters of the People’s Vote campaign are currently trying to convince the public for holding a new referendum on Brexit. “The People’s Vote campaign seeks to ensure that the government’s Brexit deal is put before the country in a public vote so that we can decide if a decision that will affect our lives for generations makes the country better or worse off. Good deal or bad deal, it’s definitely a big deal – and that’s why it should be put to a People’s Vote”, that’s how the campaign’s supporters define their goal.

Proponents of this campaign believe that the parliament’s negative vote to May’s plan is the best opportunity to hold another referendum. On the other hand, Theresa May doesn’t intend to violate the people’s vote in the 2016 referendum explicitly, so she tries to appear to be opposed to a new referendum, but she set the game in a way that it will eventually lead to the UK’s remain as part of the European Union.

Labor Party officials led by Jeremy Corbin have also agreed to vote again on the Brexit, and have officially backed this issue. The fact that Britain’s two rival parties have come to an agreement on holding a new referendum has provided the ground for its ultimate realization.

First published in our partner MNA

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West return to 2007: Europe’s anger over incompetent politicians

Mohammad Ghaderi

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The anger and discontent of European citizens over European politicians is increasing day by day. While more than ten years have passed since the economic crisis in Europe, we are still witnessing austerity plans in this block.

France’s recent round of demonstrations isn’t limited to this country anymore, and we’re now witnessing demonstrations in countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands.

Many European citizens spent the years between 2007 and 2012 with the hope that the austerity policies would affect the devastated economy of United Europe and the Eurozone. That’s why they tried to cooperate with their own governments (which were mainly the far-right and social-democratic administrations). However, after 2012, we witnessed the end of European citizens’ patience towards politicians like Merkel.

Part of this dissatisfaction revealed itself in cases such as the European Parliamentary Elections in 2014, where more than 100 right extremists managed to enter the European Parliament. Now, in 2018, we are witnessing the continuation of the economic crisis in Europe in the security, social and political spheres.

It’s not without a reason that the number of nationalist groups’ supporters has increased in the mentioned areas. The security crisis is strongly felt in today’s Europe. Common policies which were adopted by European authorities couldn’t improve the security crisis within the Schengen borders and other European borders.

During 2015 and 2016 (and somehow in 2017), the Immigration and security crises in Europe caused other issues such as the economic crisis to become marginalized. But now it’s shadowed over the whole of Europe. Under such circumstances, the main question of European citizens is that what was the impact of austerity policies adopted for ten years inside the EU borders?

They can clearly see that the adoption of such policies has had no effects on improving their economic conditions. The existing economic crisis continues to be felt in everyday life of European citizens. The rise of the signs of the financial crisis in Europe, and the decline in credit ratings, and the growth of unemployment in countries that continue to be affected by the financial crisis have created many social crises in Europe.

The protests that are taking place today in France and other European countries are not merely an objection to rising fuel prices or tax increases for low-income groups. It is a protest against the unstable economic structure of the European Union and the Eurozone.

Emmanuel Macron, the young French president, as an economist, promised to redefine the existing economic structure in the Eurozone, with regard to the current economic crisis. However, Macron himself has now become the symbol of crisis in Europe!

The economic crisis in European countries doesn’t limit to austerity policies! The external debt crisis in the European countries should also be added to the economic and credit crises in the West. The crisis is heavily extended in countries like Italy, causing a lot of trouble for other member states of the Eurozone. The economic cohesion of the Eurozone member states has fueled this trend.

In any case, it seems that the patience of European citizens has come to an end. As noted, according to the predictions, these crises were to be resolved before 2012, and economic growth symbols was to be replaced by austerity symbols. But at the moment, there is little indication of economic growth in European countries, and austerity policies remain strong.

Finally, it should be concluded that the European countries, especially the EU member states, have no choice but to “self-destruct” their economic foundations and replace them with new patterns. If European officials continue to insist on existing methods and economic models, they will be doomed to failure in the near future. In this case, nationalist groups and far-right extremists will dominate Europe’s political, economic, social and security equations, and this would definitely be a terrible nightmare for those like Merkel and Macron.

First published in our partner MNA

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