This year in-store smartphone purchases worldwide will increase by more than 1,000 percent from last year. While the mobile wallet won’t replace the traditional wallet yet, 2015 will be a tipping point toward wider consumer adoption of in-store smartphone payments.
This is according to the 14th edition of Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions, a report by Deloitte Global. Additionally, Deloitte Global predicts that print books will continue to dominate the publishing industry and account for 80 percent of all book sales by dollars and units, and that 2015 will be the year where enterprise will be ahead of consumers for adoption of new technologies such as 3D printing, Internet of Things (IoT) and drones.
Also, counter to previous industry predictions around the smartphone reaching a plateau, Deloitte Global predicts there will be 1 billion upgrades in 2015, signaling that the market has not yet matured or stagnated.
“Smartphones are already being used to check balances, transfer funds and transact online, but they have not reached a ‘mobile wallet’ status globally,” said Jolyon Barker, Managing Director, Global TMT Industry, Deloitte Global. “We predict 2015 will be the first year that all mainstream mobile requirements will be addressed, making smartphone payment options easier, with user friendly security in place.”
Consumers don’t always lead the way: The pendulum swings back to enterprise innovation
Last year signaled a shift away from a decade-long trend of consumerization of Information Technology (IT), for example, with a modest consumer uptake of wearable technology like smart glasses. In 2015, however, Deloitte Global predicts the pendulum to swing further toward enterprise led adoption with wearables, 3D printing, drones and the IoT meeting more needs and generating higher sales for business than consumers.
Additional highlights and details of this year’s TMT predictions to impact the marketplace in 2015 include:
The end of the consumerization of IT? In 2015, the pendulum of technology adoption will begin to swing back to the enterprise market, reversing a decade long trend that went the other way – when mass adoption of technologies like large screen smartphones and tablets started with consumer adoption first.
The Internet of things really is things, not people – In 2015, over 60 percent of the one billion global wireless IoT devices will be bought, paid for and used by enterprises – despite media focus on consumers controlling their thermostats, lights, and appliances (ranging from washing machines to tea kettles). The IoT-specific hardware is predicted to be worth $10 billion, but the big story is the enterprise services enabled by the devices: about $70 billion.
Drones: high-profile and niche – In 2015, drones will have multiple industrial and civil government applications. Deloitte Global predicts sales of non-military drones (also known as unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs), to be about 300,000 units, driving the installed base to over a million. Although consumers or prosumers will buy the majority, most of the real value will come from enterprise use.
3D printing is a revolution: Just not the revolution you think – In 2015 nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a dollar value of $1.6 billion, but it is unlikely that there will be a “factory in every home.” Deloitte Global estimates about 80 percent of the value of all 3D printers will be for companies instead of consumers, meaning the real revolution will be in the enterprise market.
Smartphone batteries: better but no breakthrough – Longer battery life is likely to remain a key factor for consumer’s choosing their next smartphone. The rechargeable, lithium ion (Li-Ion) battery technology used in all smartphones will improve only modestly in 2015, with no more than 5 percent greater unit charge or milliampere hours (mAh) compared to a 2014 model of the same dimensions and voltage.
Click and collect booms: a boon for the consumer, a challenge for retailers – The number of click and collect locations in Europe will reach half a million in 2015, a 20 percent increase on the previous year. Click and collect provides shoppers with the option to pick up items purchased online from locations such as a special section in a store, a shopping mall, or a secure locker located in a transit station.
Nanosats take off, but they don’t take over – By the end of 2015 over 500 nanosatellites (nanosats, under 10 kg in mass) will be in orbit. Nanosats are attractive for many reasons: they are cheaper than conventional satellites, lighter, easier to build and test, and easier to launch. Although increasingly capable of more complex tasks, they are likely to be additive to the existing large satellite market, and not replace it.
Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television – The total time spent watching online short-form video clips and other programming of less than 20 minutes in length, will represent less than 3 percent of all video seen in the year globally. Deloitte Global does not expect short-form online content to usurp long-form traditional television. It is a future, but not the future, of screen-based entertainment; and Deloitte Global predicts it is unlikely ever to be the predominant video format, as measured by hours watched or revenues.
The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending on TMT – North American Millennials will lead the way in 2015 and spend an average of $750 per person for content, both traditional and digital. What are Millennials spending on? Pay TV, music, computer games, books, live sports, streaming video, and even print newspapers.
Print is not dead, at least for print books – Sales from print books will be five times the sales of eBooks. eBooks have not substituted print books in the same way that sales of CDs, print newspapers and magazines have declined. Young people (age 18-34) are as attached to print books as their elders and read at about the same rate than older demographics, and they are willing to pay for them.
Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum – The end of 2015 will mark the tipping point for the use of mobile phones for in-store payments around the world. It will be the first year in which the multiple prerequisites for mainstream adoption – satisfying financial institutions, merchants, consumers and device vendors – have been sufficiently addressed. In 2015, about 10 percent of the base of smartphones worldwide will be used to make an in-store payment at least once a month, compared to less than half a percent (led by early adopters in Japan) of about 450 million smartphones in mid-2014.
For the first time, the smartphone upgrade market will exceed one billion. 1.35 billion smartphones will sell worldwide in 2015, but over a billion of them will be upgrades – new phones for those who already have one. The upgrade cycle may be lengthening, but screen size, speed, storage, software and design will continue to drive growth for smartphone refreshes.
The connectivity chasm deepens as gigabit Internet adoption rockets – Globally, the number of homes with broadband Internet will grow by about 2 percent to 725 million, and average broadband speeds in most countries will increase by 20 percent. The gap between those with access to the fastest broadband speeds and those on basic speeds will continue to widen in 2015, providing a varied experience from home to home, especially for high bandwidth applications like streaming video. All broadband is equal…but some is more equal than others.
Say “hello” with the sixth generation of mobile network (6G)
The recent introduction of 5G across the globe has directed the interests of telecom experts to the development of the “6G network.” The 6G network is expected to be 100x faster than the max speed of 5G (more than the data rate of 1000 Gbps), has higher reliability, and lower latency compared with 5G. With such an upgrade, it will bring the concept of “Ambient Internet of Everything (AIoE),” providing a better connectivity experience to users.
It could bring science fiction, shown in movies such as “Star Wars and Avengers”, to reality, from flying automobiles to edge devices, and from real-time holograms to internet-connected human bodies and brains — the potential is endless.
Apart from boosting speed, 6G will come with a host of innovative features to experience next-generation communication network, thus, improving connectivity in artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things (IoT), machine-to-machine (M2M) communication and so on. It is expected to have a major impact on industries such as Media and Telecom, Automotive, Manufacturing, and Healthcare.
Although there is still a lot of ongoing research around the 6G network connectivity, it is at least a decade away from its commercialization. However, companies are constantly researching on adding features in 6G networks to take the first-mover advantage. Below are some of the key developments by companies in the 6G arena:
|Partnership between LG,||•||These players have recently come together to|
|Keysight Technologies, and the||collaborate in developing technologies related to|
|Korea Advanced Institute of||terahertz — a key frequency band for 6G|
|Science & Technology (KAIST)||communications|
|(South Korea’s leading research||•||They have targeted to complete 6G research by|
|university)||•||2024 LG mentioned that its “6G network is expected to be commercialized in 2029”|
|Partnership between Samsung||•||Both are already working closely on the THz|
|Electronics and the University of||phased array module development to explore 6G|
|California, Santa Barbara||use cases and deployment scenarios|
|(UCSB)||•||In fact, they recently demonstrated an end-to-end 140GHz wireless link on next-generation 6G technology using a fully digital beamforming solution|
|Research Facility set up by||•||The centre would invest time and efforts in the|
|Vodafone Germany in Dresden||development of future 6G systems in the areas of connected agriculture, automation, OpenRan and much more|
Not just organizations but governments across the globe are also racing to gear up for the 6G network. Alliances are formed by the government bodies to move ahead in the 6G race.
Being in the leading position, China launched its satellite last year to test airwaves for potential 6G transmission. The Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology has formed two teams to oversee the research and study of 6G connectivity.
United States Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS), including tech leaders such as Google, Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung Electronics, and AT&T, was exclusively formed to manage North America’s progress toward 6G. The alliance has the vision to achieve North American 6G wireless leadership.
The US and Japan have collaboratively invested $4.5 billion for the development of 6G. The government bodies from both countries said that they want to strengthen digital technology in ICT and next-generation mobile networks.
The US also formed alliances with the Republic of Korea to work on emerging connectivity technologies such as 5G and 6G. Both President Biden and President Moon have committed to collaborate on developing open, efficient, and transparent 5G and 6G network architectures using Open-RAN technology.
South Korea is planning to launch over 100 mini-satellites and 14 low earth orbit communication satellites in the next decade. It aims to set up a satellite communication network and get ready for 6G in the field of marine traffic and test autonomous ship control systems.
However, political battles and technological rivalries might be intense for 6G commercialization, and it could be certainly between the US and China, as it is happening for 5G deployment.
It would be too early to comment on the market dynamics of the 6G network, but it is expected to be influenced by government bodies, organizations, and academic sectors.
So far, there have been five generations of communication network, with the current industry focus on the fifth generation of mobile network, and by the next decade focus will be on its succeeding network — 6G. It will fulfill the limitation of 5G, especially in the practical application of AI. The 6G network’s minimal latency and optimal data rate are expected to transform the Telecommunication sector while boosting the performance and functionality of connected devices.
Disintegrating Big Tech: What Future Holds for the American Technology Giants’?
The United States lawmakers in June 2021 introduced five bills pertaining to Antitrust regulations for the purpose of curbing and curtailing the tremendous power in the hands of few big tech companies. The bills after being enacted will specifically deal with antitrust intricacies surrounding big technology giants across the nation. That means this bill is meant only for selected entities which fulfill the criteria of being a dominant technology enterprise. The entity must have a market capitalization of more than USD 600 Billion and it has to serve at least 50 Million U.S users or 1,00,000 U.S business each month. By terms of market capitalization, only 10 companies in the world come under this categorization namely – Apple (USD 2.3 Trillion), Microsoft (USD 2 Trillion), Saudi Aramco (USD 1.9 Trillion), Amazon (USD 1.7 Trillion), Alphabet (USD 1.5 Trillion), Facebook (USD 0.9 Trillion), Tencent Holdings (USD 0.8 Trillion), Tesla (USD 0.7 Trillion), Alibaba Group (0.7 Trillion), Berkshire Hathaway (USD 0.6 Trillion). The bipartite proposal comes under the motto “A Stronger Online Economy: Opportunity, Innovation, Choice” and was a result of 16-month long investigation conducted by Antitrust sub-committee of House Judiciary Committee under the leadership of Democratic Party Representative for Rhode Island David Cicilline (who also happens to be Antitrust Subcommittee chairman) in collaboration with Republican Ken Buck into some of the biggest tech corporations in the United States such as Amazon, Google, Apple and Facebook. The announcement of the proposed legislation was done by David Cicilline via his official twitter account through which he laid down in short the purpose of this bill. Ken Buck also exhibited his excitement towards the legalization of this bill. Various other legislative members took to twitter to stand up for the bill like representative Joe Neguse expressed his support in favour of the bill. The senator from Minnesota Amy Klobuchar (famous for her antitrust expertise) also tweeted the passing of the bill by the senate. The investigation concluded that these entities are dominant in their respective relevant markets. For instance, Facebook holds the monopoly status in social media applications while Google is a dominant entity in internet search market and Amazon is the biggest e-commerce platform having stronghold in retail online market. The regulators were of the view that these big corporations hold excessive power and act as a gatekeeper in their respective relevant markets thereby manipulating the market as per their whims and wishes. They charge exorbitant prices, eliminate small enterprises, coerce tough contractual obligations, draw out valuable data and use it for monetary gains. This as a result is causing harm, to small competitors, consumers and the overall market & prevailing economic conditions in general. They are also alleged for breaking laws and taking aggressive steps to maintain their monopoly status. As a matter of fact the five bills delve into the various antitrust arenas like big data, mergers and anti-competitive behaviour allegedly exhibited by these companies among others. So, let’s get down to each of these bills.
1.American Choice and Innovation Online Act – Led by David Cicilline, this act will keep a check on companies which try to manipulate market for their own good or for promoting their own products. Apart from this it will also prevent companies from excluding other products which fall in their line of business, discriminating between similarly placed business users, restricting business users’ access to services and violating any of the provisions stipulated in this act. In case of non-compliance of the provisions of this act, the penalty is stipulated at a fine of upto 15% of the company’s United States revenue for the previous calendar year or 30% of the company’s United States revenue for any line of business affected by the unlawful conduct.
2.Platform Competition and Opportunity Act – Led by Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, this act will stop big dominant entities from merging with smaller competitors or acquiring them. Basically the provisions mentioned therein will proscribe collaboration or alliance of such entities which compete with each other, fall in the same relevant market and the merger/acquisition of which will create a risk of forming a dominant entity in that relevant market. This act will make it tougher for entities to snap up their competitors for the ultimate purpose of killing the competition.
3.Ending Platform Monopolies Act – Led by Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington DC, this can be construed as the most important bill among all the 5 bills. This act will prohibit the company from unfairly favoring its own product over competitors on its platform. For instance, Google gives its own services greatest priority at the top of a search results page — the reason Google Maps and reviews appear first on searches for local businesses and YouTube tops those for music or video. Further, it was observed by the lawmakers that these dominant companies often steer away users to their own products instead of showing the true search results as asked. The provisions contained in this act would prevent this self-preferencing habit of entities to avoid creation of any conflict of interest.
5.Merger Filing Fee Modernization Act – Led by Representative Joe Neguse of Colorado, this act aims to provide a greater monetary support and resources to the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice so that as to help them efficiently perform the work they are supposed to perform. The fees is stipulated as per the total combined valuation or size of the transaction. If the combined valuation is USD 92 Million to 184 Million, then the fee would be between USD 30,000 to 40,000. If the valuation is between USD 184 Million to 919 Million, then fees would be USD 1,00,000 to 1,25,000. And if the merger value crosses more than USD 919 Million, the fees would be USD 2,50,000 to 2,80,000. Thus it will serve the purpose of greater flexibility, collection of required intel and operational resources by boosting the fund for these two US antitrust enforcers/regulators.
MAIN OBJECTIVE BEHIND THIS STEP
The main objective behind such initiative is to level the playing field for all the players (whether small or big) and ensure these dominant technology players play by the same rules. The main target of these proposed legislations are those technology enterprises which come under the category of dominant position. It aims at the most profitable ventures of all these tech companies including Amazon’s The lawmakers want to break big tech, split it into various pieces, dismantle their structure and prevent them from unfairly favoring their own products over the competitors on their platforms. Also, by way of this legislation the big technology enterprises will face a huge difficulty in merging or forming alliances with competitors no matter their size.
Considering the stringent provisions and ever-increasing scrutiny, these bills hold the power to shake the tech behemoths from deep beneath their structures. The bills are now in preliminary stage and hence will be sent to House Judiciary Committee and after that to both the House i.e Senate (Upper House) and House of Representatives (Lower House). If passed by both these houses, then the President Joe Biden will sign the bill making it a law of the land at United States. The final voting will be held on June 23rd 2021. Post legalization this bill would reshape the governance and operation of tech companies so that there is strict abidance of the prescribed rules and regulations. This move could revolutionize the United States technology industry in a manner never seen before.
To Protect Democracies, Digital Resiliency Efforts Are Needed Now
Across the globe, more than three billion people have no internet access. But with the increased availability of smart phones and other projects such as SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet system, that soon will change. To be sure, this unprecedented level of connectivity has the power to be a boon for democratic advancement and economic development. However, without pre-emptive action, it will likely result in the ills we’ve seen with rapid connectivity elsewhere that threaten democratic norms, institutions, and governance. Authoritarians have an answer to these problems: more control. Democracies need an answer too: building pre-emptive digital resilience and preparedness.
Democracies have been consistently caught off guard by rapid digitization. The disruption of information ecosystems has amplified political and economic inequity, leading to various information disorders such as disinformation, declining trust in journalism, increasing social toxicity and dissatisfaction with government, etc. In Myanmar, for example, internet connectivity empowered individuals, but rampant hate speech also facilitated the military’s campaign against the Rohingya. In the Philippines and Brazil, authoritarian populists have used social media to exploit their publics, foment hate, and win elections.
In attempting to manage the consequences of rapid digitization, governments are increasingly eliciting from the authoritarian playbook – implementing haphazard social media and cyber laws, surveillance, and censorship to the detriment of political freedoms. Freedom House’s Freedom on the Net 2020 report outlined a “dismal year for internet freedom” and showed countries like Brazil, Nigeria, Turkey, and Kyrgyzstan following China’s model of blocking internet services and conducting pervasive monitoring on their people’s virtual activities.
Democracies have not provided clear answers to rapid digitization, despite the fact that successes in countries like Finland and Taiwan demonstrate that the internet can – if combined with a thoughtful, pre-emptive, whole of society approach – actively strengthen social cohesion and democratic governance. The introduction of digital infrastructure must be accompanied by digital literacy campaigns. Governments need to be trained in cybersecurity, online communication, and on key policy issues such as open data and privacy. Civil society, especially those working with local communities and marginalized populations, need to be involved early in national digital coordination plans in order to reach more people and to ensure digital inclusion is a core consideration of these plans. These plans should include mobilization of digital safety campaigns, education initiatives, and digital skills trainings.
To be sure, taking a pro-active, coordinated approach will require resources and time. Embracing the transparency that comes with digitization and the sheer amount of data available might also seem daunting at the beginning. However, countries and communities soon to come online are in advantageous positions to learn from other countries’ mistakes and better understand the opportunities, risks, and threats that digitization brings. There is no reason for them to experience the same negative effects of rapid digitization that we’ve been observing for years. It is better to invest upfront than be left dealing with the democratic backsliding gripping Myanmar, the Philippines, Ethiopia, and many other countries today.
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