Security, politico-military, legal and socio-economic aspects
In an ever evolving and expanding world, there is a constant quest for both more energy and less external energy dependency.
With the fossil fuels bound industry setting an alarming trend of negative ecological footprint, there is a clear and urgent must to predict and instruct on alternatives. And, this is the main purpose of this paper. As our key points of argument will show, there is no alternative decarbonized, greener primary energy mix possible in the future without the considerable share reserved for nuclear power. To this end, the development of nuclear power can only be achieved within the current legal framework of nuclear commerce regime. Consequently, we will rethink and revisit some of the fundamentals: the genesis of the world of atoms, applied nuclear science, its military and geopolitical implications, the nuclear commerce regime, legal framework behind this field as well as the factors speeding up or hindering the process of a renewed nuclear power generation, which can be tentatively named a nuclear renaissance. Hopefully, this process will lead to a safe, cleaner, cheaper and decarbonized, greener energy mix in the near future.
Anis H. Bajrektarevic
Anis H. Bajrektarevic is a Professor and a Chairperson for International Law and Global Political studies at the Austrian IMC University of Applied Sciences. He is editor of the NY-based Addlton’s GHIR Journal (Geopolitics, History and Intl. Relations), as well as the Senior Editorial member of many specialized international magazines, including the Canadian Energy Institute’s Journal Geopolitics of Energy.
For the past 15 years, prof. Anis has organized dozens of public events by hosting numerous heads of missions to the IAEA and CTBTO, many of them while being in the Board of Governors as members or chairing that key IAEA body. Nuclear issues have been extensively discussed at these public events when professor was hosting ambassadors of the US, Russia, China, France, the UK, India, Korea/ROK, Japan, Iran, Israel, Brazil, Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Australia, South Africa, Mexico, Argentina, Ukraine, Italy, Germany, Spain, Sweden, and many other countries that use nuclear technology. For the same period, professor also organized some two dozens of study visits for his students to the Vienna and Geneva based safety/security-related organizations (such as OSCE, IAEA, CTBTO, OOSA, ECE, DA Com., ITU, WMO, IRC, etc.)
Petra Posega is a master`s degree student on the University for Criminal justice and Security in Ljubljana. She obtained her bachelor`s degree in Political Science- Defense studies.
The birth of the modern concept of economic war and Bernard Esambert’s thought
Without my friend Bernard Esambert there would not certainly be the current concept of “economic warfare”.
Having studied at the Ėcole Polytechnicque, he is a natural heir to the best Colbertian, Saint-Simonian, positivist – and later Gaullist – tradition – which pervades the background and education of the modern and post-revolutionary French elites, with governments that pass and ruling classes that remain, as it must always be.
It is no coincidence that, at the beginning of a book he wrote in 1971, Le Trosième Conflict Mondial, Esambert mentioned an old Saint-Simonian song, written by Rouget de Lisle, which glorified science and technology, as the new leaders of peoples after the so-called âge de l’obscurité. Rouget de Lisle, a French army officer, was the poet who wrote the words and music of La Marseillaise.
Two facts that, symbolically, are certainly not by chance.
After having been a mining engineer (and the engineering sector is traditionally a great area of recruitment for the intelligence Services and the French senior management) Esambert became a great commis d’Ėtat. Une vie d’influence, just to recall the title of one of his recent books, Une vie d’influence – dans les coulisses de la Ve République.
Finally, Esambert became a point of reference for Georges Pompidou, who later called him to collaborate with him – as a man of influence – at the Presidency of the Republic.
As Benedetto Croce – a too much forgotten philosopher – used to say, you can always and only implement “the possible liberalism”, well knowing that the real economy is made up of an agreement between private enterprise and State management, which is the one that always really counts.
It has always been and it will always be so. This is the first criterion for setting the scene of an economic warfare which – as Bernard Esambert himself noted for the first time – applies always and everywhere, and is never forgotten, unless severely defeated, even by the modern States that want to win a challenge that always lasts and has never one single face – a warfare, financial, technological, political, cultural and organizational one.
The economic warfare worked well also in ancient Greece: the overpopulation in Athens; the need for commercial outlets in Central Asia; the expansion of Greeks to Southern Italy, where the Bruttians, after having taken their idols with them, hid in the mountains without ever seeing the sea again.
The faces of economic warfare are always manifold and all of them always work. Whoever forgets some of them is always bound to lose.
Certainly there are the current young and brilliant French analysts operating in the intelligence Services and the training sector, who belong to the Ėcole de Guerre Ėconomique (ĖGE) founded precisely by Esambert, based on an old idea developed by Christian Harbulot. There are also the new Italian initiatives in the academic world, all designed more to showing up and flattering the Heads of the intelligence Agencies, for whatever small favours – the usual and often imaginary “small powers” of the Italian academic world, always a bit stingy, after the long season of the roadshow organized by the Intelligence Department (DIS), at the time of the Interior Minister, Marco Minniti, as “Authority responsible for the Intelligence Services”, from 2013 to the end of Renzi’s Government.
In this regard, we should also recall Ambassador Giampiero Massolo, who was the first supporter of the Italian intelligence services’ roadshow in the Italian academic world – now very badly damaged – more to improve the Agencies’ image than to really seek new recruits for the intelligence Services, which have always well selected their people inside and outside the universities, without any need for chattering or showing off.
Moreover, as we all know, the young people who were recruited by means of the website sicurezzanazionale.gov.it were quickly dismissed from the Agencies and now vegetate in other sectors of the Public Administration.
It is not a matter of “young” and “old” people or of creating some fashionable opportunities for declining universities, but rather of ensuring that the whole Italian ruling class endeavours for a well-designed and, above all, stable economic warfare.
As far as I know, for the time being there exists only one specific Master in Economic Intelligence in Italy, organized by the Institute of High Strategic and Political Studies (IASSP) in Milan. I have been told that also Harbulot participated in it.
But once again, this has nothing to do with the decades-long tradition of intelligence and economic ruling class in France, Great Britain and even the United States, not to mention also the small countries that walked out from the Warsaw Pact, with great intelligence and efforts.
It was Esambert himself, already present in an old but already usual and obvious Davos Conference – a now well-known fashionable meeting of those who believe they are authoritative people but, indeed, are nothing – who told about the exit of the old General Jaruzelsky, the strong man of the Polish counter-coup to avoid the occupation by a weak Warsaw Pact, when the old Polish General, whose right-hand man was a NATO spy, openly said he wanted Western investment in Poland and was also ready to progressively liberalize the zloty, as well as finally accept the Western business rules and Western capital coming to Poland.
Obviously subject to the control of the old-but-new-regime.
Here is the real success of an excellent economic warfare – not the many small stories that the globalized rich people usually tell to their useless and always gauchistes children, since it is fashionable.
Incidentally, it should be recalled that even Adam Smith, the inventor of “political economy” according to the basic rules of the British global interests of his time, was a free trade theorist in the markets where Great Britain had to settle, but supported the strictest protectionism, just when it came to closing the national or colonial British markets to the attack of the cheap goods of European competitors and, later, of the 13 colonies that were to become independent on the East Coast of North America.
Here, once again, the problem is scarcity, which just today – as always said by Esambert – seems far away, at least from what Mao Zedong called “the world’s metropolises”.
However, there is instead the natural and induced scarcity. Nowadays we live in induced scarcity, which does not need wars “for raw materials” – as the German geopolitics of the 1930s theorized – but it is the induced scarcity of modern consumption, which needs technology, expert management and States capable of expanding strategically, as well as modern factories. Here it is the new and inevitable economic warfare.
Either we win or lose, but always continuously. In contemporary economic warfare, there is no “declaration of peace”. Quite the reverse.
This is the real core of the issue. If we can no longer build monopolies by managing scarcity – as always happened when modern capitalism was established, according to Adam Smith – how can we today favour the national companies and the typical products of our region, if there are no longer real trade wars, such as the penetration of the East India Company in the Far East and in China, or the British oil trade closures in the Middle East, to take Kurdish oil in Haifa when Churchill, as First Lord of the Admiralty, turned the British military navigation from coal into oil navigation, or the operations of the Belgian royal family alone in Congo, or the French possessions in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia?
The choice of Habib Bourghiba – Mussolini’s guest in Rome – to secretly deal with De Gaulle’s France Libre, when he realized that Rommel and his Afrika Korps were in disarray, can be considered a technique of economic and commercial warfare. He sold his Destour covert network, previously operating with the Axis, in exchange for independence, after the victory of the Western liberal democracies which Habib, indeed, did not like so much.
Lacking a real effective and modern colonial experience, Italy still does not know how to export its productive potential, which is what really counts.
From Giolitti’s to Mussolini’s time, Italy treated its colonies as simple ways out for the rural overpopulation, especially when the exit routes to the United States or South America were blocked.
Italy made the only mistake it should not make.
It even lost the Libyan oil, which was taken back only with the coup of Gaddafi, a creature of Italy’s intelligence Services.
The Italian politicians currently in power support the idea of going abroad to transfer our potential for economic warfare either as door-to-door sellers of the all too famous Made in Italy – which, indeed, almost sells itself – or in search of external and distant areas where to make our agonizing small and medium-sized enterprises survive as long as possible, so as to squeeze every last drop of the labour cost differential.
Either fashion, the brand – now in foreign hands – or begging to prolong the agony of some SMEs which are interesting for political, electoral and financial reasons.
Two attitudes which are deeply wrong – precisely in substance. As Esambert used to say, every country goes to sell abroad certainly not to repeat the plot of the beautiful 1959 movie by Francesco Rosi, The Magliari, set – not by chance – in Germany, but to win and wipe out its competitors.
This movie could teach much to the Italian politicians currently bleating for German “help”. They should watch it again and think about the behaviour of the two main characters -masterfully interpreted by Renato Salvatori and Alberto Sordi – who are defeated when trying to antagonize their Polish rivals, the previous “magliari”.
You never go abroad to propose a factory or a business, but you always go – willingly or unwillingly – to propose a way of doing business, a success story, a lifestyle, a product that must therefore be ipso facto protected, supported, advertised – for which imitations must be stopped, on site and elsewhere, and for which it is necessary to create a stable dependence of the target country and a powerful image in the foreign market of reference.
Nothing to do with the ramshackle, slow, inefficient, impolitic style – all aimed at simply making a deal, at striking a “bargain” – often characterizing our foreign policy, even in countries that Italy should tread very carefully and in which it should proceed with extreme caution.
Foreign countries must be conquered with trade, exactly as they could be conquered with a real battled war, if this were possible today.
In fact, every trade treaty is a peace treaty which, however, must clearly show the will of those who have won, i.e. – in Italy’s specific case – the productive system of those who have come from outside.
Certainly, today even economic wars are no longer made – at least in principle – to support a market that can absorb our surplus.
Marx’s old criterion of surplus value, which is certainly useful today as a way to analyse the evolution of modern capitalism.
As Esambert always says, economic wars are made to create room – outside and inside the old national perimeter – for counteracting and fighting against everybody’s adverse actions – both friends and foes – in our productive system.
Whoever loses faces – without time limits – the disasters of globalization (uncontrolled immigration, pollution, the classic combination of unemployment and inflation), while whoever wins offloads the problems on his global competitors.
And again there is no time limit.
When Spain was still under Franco’s regime, the State of Madrid created an instrument of economic warfare just with SEAT, in 1950, thanks to a small contribution of FIAT capital.
Later in 1985, SEAT became part of the German group Wolkswagen Aktiengesellschaft – created on the basis of an old project by the Führer.
The huge Catalan factory was inaugurated in Martorell by King Juan Carlos in 1993.
FIAT left and VW came in powerfully, with no local or European competitors.
Was it not an economic warfare operation? Of course it was.
At that time, Italy was numbed with the Clean Hands judiciary probe and no one noticed that Germany was taking over Spain’s basic industries after the end of the Caudillo’s regime.
This happened also in other parts of the world.
Starting from the imprisonment and the related suicide of the old ENI President, Cagliari, until the never resolved issues of Gardini’s death, in the connection between the takeover of Montedison and the fanciful creation of Enimont, the whole Clean Hands judicial investigation was, however, an accelerated operation to sell off Italy’s primary industrial system, pending the fall of the Berlin Wall and the truly endogenous crisis of the Italian political system.
There was, at first, the sale of primary assets, ranging from the motorway company Società Autostrade to the food holding SME – of which I had a first-hand experience – and later the redesign of the system of bribes from companies to the political system, which began with ENI’s disruption following Cagliari’s imprisonment, until the creation of a new network of funding to a “new” political system, where all parties were renamed – according to a potentially two-party system – “progressive” and “conservative” or even “liberal”.
Was it not an economic warfare operation? Of course it was. Many large and small companies became attractive to large foreign investors that were favoured, while the Italian State-owned and private companies faded away, struck by the new moralists’ blows.
What happened, at that time, in Mitterrand’s France or in the Great Britain led by Margaret Thatcher who, however, was ousted from Downing Street by a clique of Tories, involved in a large helicopter business affair?
We can also recall Liu Tenan, the Chinese Head of the “Development Commission”, expelled from the CPC; Rouhani himself in Iran that saw the 1979 Revolution in danger because of corruption, or Ana Mato, the Health Minister who resigned because of the scandal that in 2014 sullied the reputation of the entire Partido Pupular in Spain – not to mention the fact at least 2.3% of the world GDP fuels global corruption.
Can we believe that all this came only from what had happened in Italy?
Once again the usual moralistic parochialism sets in, a short-lived legacy of the snobbery of Italy’s old Action Party, whose liberal Socialism – taunted by Croce – led Italy to be a pale imitation of Great Britain, the eternal myth of all poor politicians and managers wearing grisaille suits.
Hence the final formula: the mix of legal and non-legal, advertising, political, military, strategic and monetary protection and support for the local ruling classes, as well as the fair and rational relations with the target country, are called exactly “economic warfare”.
There is no other way to make foreign policy and establish international relations, even non-economic ones. There is only and always economic warfare.
Hence, after this explicit and direct phase of the inevitable economic clash for survival between nations, there is the phase in which “companies are used as armies and management and business schools are used as schools for officers”, and entrepreneurs and business leaders are seen as new generals. In fact Akira Kurosawa, the director of the movie Seven Samurai and a descendant from a Samurai family, wanted – in a later movie of 1980, Kagemusha (Shadow Warrior) – to describe Japanese business leaders as new Samurai.
Every economic action is a “covert” act of war. Every act of war can also be turned into an economic action, which instead of being a cost – unsustainable in the long run – is a real bargain or can even become so.
Economic warfare shifts the cost of operations onto the victim.
Attractiveness and competitiveness are now complementary, while Italy is the 7th world exporter of goods, but it only ranks 18th in terms of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the territory.
The current FDI is an instrument of external hegemony, not a system of national power or of projection of our economic and non-economic power onto the countries that receive our goods or that – in any case – should consume them, instead of our competitors’ products.
The economic warfare also stems from the fact that all the great Western countries produce more or less the same goods.
Nevertheless, in Italy 43% of the companies currently listed on the Stock Exchange are owned by foreign businesses. Obviously, there is no direct correlation between the quality of management of the various industries and their ownership. However, do you believe that if a French bank manager has to organize a strategy for his own company, he will pay heed to the large multifarious group of his small investors – as currently happens in Italy – or will he rather consider the ideas coming from some State think tanks in Paris, or possibly from one of his Ministers, or even from a colleague in Lyon or Grenoble?
According to the 2018 data, in Italy the foreign investors’ shareholdings of listed companies currently amount to 196.4 billion euro, i.e. 43% of the total.
The shareholdings of listed joint stock companies owned by Italian businesses are worth 25.8%, with the State holding 2.7% of the total portfolio. Hence it is certainly not difficult to imagine that, in this framework of international economic equilibria, Italy would have an extreme need for a policy of economic warfare.
This also applies to cultural or humanitarian operations.
Goodness knows what the organization Mèdecins sans Frontières was for France, or the management of the U.S. or Canadian grain overproduction was for the U.S. power projection policy in third countries or in those suffering humanitarian crises.
Whoever eats your wheat becomes your friend, whoever is saved by your doctors will never make war on you but, above all, will gladly buy your products, when the crisis is over and France or the United States will present local governments with the bill for its humanitarian operations.
Moreover, in 2011 the Italian multinationals were as many as 6,500 Italian, while currently they are decidedly fewer and often smaller.
Not to mention Italy’s cultural and hegemonic penetration – virtually nothing, apart from a few old-style and ramshackle elite operations for socialites.
We need more than beautiful girls, superstar chefs or art exhibitions. It takes guts to penetrate and hegemonize a distant market. It is an operation in which companies and the intelligence Services shall participate simultaneously, and shall be ever less tied to the cliques of revolving-door government and also less parochial in their actions. Even humanitarian organizations, some universities – less familist than usual – as well as the fashion world, newspapers, TV networks, cinema and all the many other instruments of attraction and seduction shall take part in this operation.
An operation which, however, must be stable and well-designed, otherwise we risk repeating what happened when an Italian President of the Republic, while visiting the Chinese Great Wall, learnt that the German Prime Minister was coming for a flying visit to Beijing so as to sign an agreement between the German and Chinese large car manufacturers.
A dinner, some greetings and a quick return to Berlin.
Unless the full criterion of the “economic warfare” is followed – as must be done according to Bernard Esambert’s guidelines – Italy will always be relegated to the sidelines of the great global economic development and it will not reap the fruits but only the damage of globalization – as is already currently happening.
Morocco’s Economy: COVID-19 Epidemic made a new development model
Considering the financial dilemma of 2008, the outbreaks of the Arab political spring that brush off the Arab society and extend to the rest of the globe, and the trade war conflicts between the United States and China that caused bilateral impasse negatively influenced on the entire world economy, and after that President Trump quit from all collective and bilateral international agreements That concern free trade cooperation and environmental issues, believing that it will be favored by the world decision, militarily and economically, under the so-called of America’s interest first…
Additionally, to the Brexit scenario, which described the political victory of Trump’s world trends and tendency, before Britain found itself alone outside the European Union in the face of the Corona epidemic, as if it had chosen the bad timing of disunion, all circumstances calling the beginning of the end of globalization announced by the industrial world superpowers, which we have claimed to be an industry for an open market to all nations, and it will bring gains and profits for the wealthy people, and create jobs for the poor. Thus, this globalization is based on unreal beliefs that have become a character for all societies of the globe; to find out in the last tick that this market of globalization has made only for the wealthy and the powerful states, they gain large profits and opportunities, while poor states only get debts and more loans.
In sense of these events and through them, globalization has improved from the exchange of interests and good benefits to the globalization of imposing programmed market strategy and originally determined interests to serve global powers on the rest of the world, which made many third world states struggle to get out of the logic of globalization based on money and the idea of taking profits, so these states tried to raise its financial and commerce status in the world sphere by pointing out the dissatisfaction with the world market and trading policies based on the logic of wealthy states benefit from easy trading policies unless undeveloped countries obliged to stick on world trading and market policies due to getting fewer outcomes.
Yet, as the most significant core in the emerging epidemic of the Coronavirus pandemic is that it created definitely boundaries for stunning globalization that was promoted by the superpowers of the global economy and monetary; the fall of the happy globalization spread by huge manufactured and international firms passed through worldwide advertising links to enlarge consumption, it is the end of the recommendations of global financial organizations; and the end of world integration that glorifies the individual outside the group, the division of society as a market for shopping and consumption, and encourages the entertainment industry at the expense of education, health development and social life, and delusions and promises of social prosperity are given among non-western societies if they relinquish their civic and morality, from those of the purity on which it is based in defense of itself, or joined in a rush through the new cultural pattern that it declared, social progress and freedom for all, and also towards unreal concepts of modernity that serves the interests of global economies and enhance human economic activity.
Here is self-evident to mention that globalization has become evident to everyone that the end of it is on the edge, not because of its interactions between people or the development of advanced technology but it’s a lack of new alternatives and answers that facilitate credible solutions to the third world economies, and also make their economy more profitable. It is true that globalization has been so keen on promoting its economic values of shared interests and uphold world economic interactions over the globe. For instance, recently globalization in the eyes of the Undeveloped countries is the end of rights of future generations in term of looting their Natural resources, revealing the reality that they carry nothing but progress for egress unexpected issues, like environmental imbalances in a catastrophic escalation, the deficiency of energy deepens the disparities between non industrialized countries, more importantly, the inability of public policies to make clear and effective decisions in order to centralize the financial institutions and businesses from their domination of the national decision, and the devotion of social inequality it jeopardizes the integration of democratic societies with the rise of irrational rhetoric discourses and as a pointless and illogical state. Though, All these facts indicate the limited development approach that globalization brought today.
In view of the Moroccan domestic opinion, the emergence of this Corona epidemic was accompanied by a public debate that was taking place among all Moroccans about the development model and social pattern, and it was significant that the public opinion truly expressed a deep awareness of the end of the globalization of the economy and money, and the need to quest for a national alternative made by the collective society, human intelligence and social interact with what is globally based on the basis of shared local experiences and historical data.
Therefore, we fully believe that this Corona COVID-19 outbreak that endangers our country will end no doubt and that will inevitably be defeated. Today, this pandemic make an opportunity for serious and new thinking about our political priorities, to review the economic development reform within our institutions, and reconstruct a new social inquiry that enhanced coordination between local business, national enterprises and upgrades Morocco’s economic-political structure among its community.
Obviously, Corona’s epidemic not only makes us concerned about our public health and the safety of our society, but more than that leads us to be more flexible in dealing with our current situation. Under his Majesty, the King of Morocco Mohamed VI has urged medical personnel from the military forces and public medical doctors to give health assistance and protect local individuals and asked for enhanced cooperation among local forces and the military. Yet, all Moroccan parties have taken adequate measures to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus, including requiring the Moroccan forces to endure the responsibility to make sure of the prevention and control of the epidemic of pneumonia caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus. Overall, a very appreciative step has taken by Morocco government has diminished its counterpart in the world, which accelerates the establishment of a fund to support the poor and needy working people in the informal sectors, to show great awareness of these risks.
To sum up, In certain is that the Coronavirus is not the end of the globe, and this crisis is sure will be passed, and the world and the economy will restore its normal character after the epidemic is resolved, but its settlement is not in the hands of heads of states or governments and not in the hands of economists or financial experts, but in the hands of medical laboratories and is dependent on people’s awareness and is linked to the extent of Solidarity and cooperation between them.
The core of time is to give priority to people (his health and education) at the expense of money and economics because the economy can return to growth again, but the dead cannot return to real life. Our core not only observed the efficiency and productivity of the global economy, but also tested the purity of citizens in every state, and proven the credibility of the global societal values system, and demonstrated the need to create societies in which economic development is connected to the inquiries of social justice and balance of interests, and the meaning and role of the social and economic values system of peoples are estimated. Accordingly, the questions should be raised so far; Will the world justly escape the overwhelming effects of this pandemic coronavirus? Will the world succeed in renewing an economic and financial system that is different from the current one?.
The COVID-19, Economic Package, UN system and Politics
Global pandemic of COVID-19 is affecting everyone. This has been described as the greatest global humanitarian crisis since WWII. On December 31st, 2019 cases of Pneumonia from unknown cause was first reported in the WHO Country office in China. Later, WHO declared it as the Public Health Emergency of International Concern on Jan 30th, 2020. This COVID-19 seen initially in the Wuhan, China but travelled mostly due to the advancement of air transportation globally. All major countries at the initial outbreak of COVID-19 had applied limited approach in prevention and control of this virus. As of April 3rd 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases globally is 1016,424. Among them, 53,241 were dead and 213,140 were recovered. In this entire pandemic, Italy is the worst hit from COVID-19 and has become the epicenter of the COVID-19 in Europe. The death toll is 13,915 and infected is 115242(As of April 3rd, 2020). The US along has 245, 373 cases of COVID-19 with 6095 deaths. The intervention of the US government in curbing the COVID-19 has been dysfunctional. The US government had announced $2 Trillion Economic Stimulus bill to fight against COVID-19 that include stimulus payments to individuals, expanded unemployment coverage, student loan changes, different retirement account rules. Under the plan, single Americans would receive $1200, married couples would get $2400 and parents would see $500 for each child under 17. However, the many argued that such economic package came very late as the first identified case of the COVID-19 was found in the Jan 20, 2020.
In the case of Nepal, economic relief package announced on March 29th, 2020 includes a 25% discount on electricity for consumers who use more than 150 units every month and no penalty if utility bill and tax payments are not cleared till mid-April, urging tourism sector to pay salaries for March-April to employees on the terms of tourism company are allowed to use social welfare funds until business returns to normal. Also, government had urged land lord to provide one month rent relief for its tenants.
From the above case story of the US & Italy; western government has been found inefficient in curbing the impact. However, the pandemic of the COVID-19 has so far limited in the developing world.
Impact in Nepal
The outbreak of the COVID-19 has affected economy, politics and society. All major countries are using tools of lock downs, quarantine and isolation ward in the hospital for the prevention and control of this virus. Though these measures seem effective in controlling the spread of the virus but halt in the economic activities; which is predicted to be serious. The global economy expected to grow in 2020 is 2.4% down from the 2.9% projected earlier (OECD, 2020). In Nepal also, it has affected hugely on the Tourism sectors. Nepal Tourism Year 2020 was announced just one day after the COVID-19 outbreak in China.In Nepal, sectors like Hotels, Civil Aviation, Supply Chain, Labour Employment and Remittance. Occupancy rate of major star Hotel like Annapurna hotel is just has 40-45% occupancy down from 70%. Flights in Lukla, Nepal declined from 60 to 10-12 flights per day as government decided to halt trekking permits as well as International flights entering to Nepal. Due to fear of the shortage of COVID-19, people started keeping stocks of the LPG cylinder. This has put shortage of the LPG. Around 40,000 people with valid work permit are stranded in Nepal to fly to Qatar due to lock down major by Qatar. This shows, remittance in coming days will be very limited and demand will be slow in Middle East as oil prices is falling.
There is also high chance of expecting this virus as a normal pandemic by politics which humanity has surpassed during its course of history. The global politics sometime won’t expect any change in its structure (for e.g. change of global order) until and unless there is a mass death toll comparing to World Wars. Loss in the global economy might have possibilities to be adjusted under compromising terms. Since, the US, China, European nations including India all heavy players has been heavily affected; the global economy will have slow start after post COVID-19 years but slowly takes its grip (as we saw after 2008 financial crisis). Other than, political economic spectrum; everyone will be forced to forget these tragedies as time passes on. Since, every citizen has to work for living and people are dire need of economic package rather drilling mind on the pandemic itself. There are also chances of growing populist agenda in the upcoming days in the US elections to woe lower income families who has been worst sufferer of the pandemic.
The effects of the COVID-19 in global and Nepal in particular is very hard hitting. Even the developed and most industrialized nations is doing its level best to overcome these challenges. While underlining the death toll in Italy, USA and Spain; one could seriously think of significant need of investment in health sector by the Western nations. Therefore, post-COVID-19 years have challenges for the Western nations to significantly invest on their own health system first and also to invest on the developing world health system. Secondly, Health certificate might be mandatory during Visa application process for developing world citizens for travelling to western nations. This virus proves that, we are deeply rooted into hyper inter-dependency and globalization where killing an opponent is suicidal for itself. In addition to this, there might be some changes in the border regulations of the EU for non-European nationals during post-COVID-19 days. Despite this fact, there is also potentiality of above contradiction stage.
In the case of Nepal, Tourism sectors including its sub sectors like Civil Aviation, Trekking, Foreign Labour employment has been worst sufferer during COVID-19 crisis. To overcome this crisis, Nepal government has announced its economic relief package for its public. But proper implementation of such relief package matters. As we know from the previous Earthquake Recovery fund; the inefficient management of the resource, mechanism has halted the work progress the project. So, government should have all relevant stakeholders’ dialogues to develop a comprehensive working strategy for proper implementation of this package.
In conclusion, strong economic stimulus package and its proper implementations is required to lift public from this deep cross-cutting crisis of the COVID-19. For making this reality; national level coordination with global consortium is essential to mitigate this crisis. Most significantly; UN system, World Bank, IMF, AIIB will have key role in making this COVID-19 pandemic a crisitunity.
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