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May of Investments, Entrepreneurship and Floods in SE Europe

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It’s barely two decades since the end of a devastating War on Ex-Yugoslavia teritory, devastating and lasting for 3,5 years in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We have seen the most brutal scenes of crime, masacred civilians (children and women), hundreds of thousands refugees, have been filling  top headlines of famous world’s media, day after day.

May 2014, is no exception these days. Catastrofic Floods, destruction and people escaping from their homes, has reminded us of the 92-95 War in Bosnia, (i.e. Agression by Ex-YU Army (JNA), supported by Serbian and Croatian political and military establishments) at that time, but also it’s a reminder of how nature can be upredictable. It is officially said that over 2 million people have been attacked these days by devastating Floods in the Balkans region.

Sadly, more than 45 people lost their lives in enormous Floods, combined in two Balkan countries: Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina which have been the mostly efected. Experts predict that those numbers will rise as flood waters recede. It is truly epic flooding, keeping records in the last 120 years, meteorologists say.

Apart from some obvious devastating results, like vanishing homes/humanitarian catastrophie, destruction, desease and epidemic danger for the people in flooding area, those floods bring another very dangerous situation: replacing mines. As stated by Bosnian President Bakir Izetbegovic, speaking yesterday for CNN’s Christiane Amanpour: “We cannot say exactly what happened with the mine fields“. He warned that the mines were likely displaced in the flooding along with signs warning of mines in the area. “The system of the mine fields (was) under control, and had warnings marks are now actually removed,” Izetbegovic said.

 

5th Sarajevo Business Forum, 14-15 May

Just couple of days earlier Regional Investment Conference – 5th Sarajevo Business Forum was preparing to take place in Sarajevo, capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was supposed to include presentations of business and investment opportunities in Energy, Infrastructure, Agriculture and Tourism from seven countries of Southeast Europe: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia.Yet, couple of days earlier, another tragic event occured. This time in Turkey, one of the friendly countries of the SBF Forum. It was a horrible mining explosion in the city of Soma, Manisa (western Turkey), where more than 300 workers lost their lives. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Mr. Ahmet Davutoglu participated in the opening ceremony of the 5th SBF Forum on May 14, 2014., and before the opening speeches of the Forum, participants paid homeage to workers who lost their lives in the mining accident in Soma. In his opening speech, Foreign Minister Davutoglu thanked for supporting messages conveyed in Sarajevo over the mining accident in Soma.

 

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Participant list of this year’s SBF, included some eminent names from political and business life, like: President of Montenegro Filip Vujanovic, crown prince of the Malaysian state of Perak Raja Dr. Nazrin Shah, former President of Slovenia Danilo Turk, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar al Khalid Bin Mohammed Al Attiyah, and Ahman Al Sayed, Minister of State and General Director of „Qatar Investment Authority“ (QAI), one of the largest investment funds in the world. SBF for the 5th year in a row, by BBI Bank in collaboration with the Islamic Development Bank (IDB), this year aimed to strengthen economic cooperation and attract international investments in South Easterm Europe.

Despite of its high reputation, what can the event like Sarajevo Business Forum, bring as a benefit to the SE Europe Region and community? Undoubtly, it already became widely recognizable, regional Investment Conference, attracting to site some of the wealthiest people from the world. One if them is Sheikh Saleh Kamel, who is highly ranked on the Forbes list of the richest people in the world and chairman of the financial and business groups „Al Baraka“. He is also the President of the Islamic Chamber of Commerce and Industry. In addition to inviting in investment projects in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sheikh Kamel is at the board of initiative for BBI Fund with an annual amount of 600 thousand dollars in the last three years, with scholarships for 1,500 young people from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

 

Potential for investing counted to 15 billion EUR

The second day of SBF started with a panel of regional potentials in energy sector. Speaking at this panel discussion Erdal Trhulj, Minister of Energy, Mining and Industry of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina,  said that so far in Federation had been discussed mainly about electricity potential, and now we are in position to talk about oil and gas explotation. Regional Director of NIS Gaspromneft, Branko Radujko noted that the region in next 7 to 10 years could attract about 15 billion euros in energy projects.

”We should facilitate procedures and work together, because as a small countries we have to work jointly in order to attract investment”, said Radujko.

During the panel disscusion about infrastructure, it was pointed out that a good and quality roads infrastructure is among the basic precondititon/requirementsfor the successful development of any economy. As a well known fact, Bosnia and Herzegovina is at he the end of the list by modern roads facilities, with only 68 kilometers of the highway, while the European average is 860 kilometers.
Similar situation is in Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo and Macedonia.

Turkey as an example

As it comes to the agriculture sector, Bosnia and the whole region have strategic predisposition for development of this sector, such as good climate (it was until this May and Floods), water, furtile soil, cheap and skilled labour force and low tax rates.”We are aware of the agricultural potentials of the Balkans region, and there is no need for their presentation, but for branding and markting”, said Saif al-Sowaidi, Vice president of the Qatar company „Al Meera Consumer Good“. He pointed out Turkey as an example which Bosnia and Herzegovina should follow, as it has first being organized fairs, forums, and investing in branding and marketing and in that way conquer the global market.

By closing the two-day conference Minister Trhulj said that Bosnia becomes, as some used to say, El Dorado for investors and added that Government makes every effort to ease investment procedures in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Potential investors were presented a large number of projects. But how many of them will be likely to find investors, remains to be seen in the future.

 

Sarajevo Pitch Day 17-18 May (IT Startup Conference)

As an entrepreneur who have failed with more than 30 projects up to now (please don’t blame me, life is sometimes tough, isn’t it?), and sent over 15,000 emails about several projects and ideas in the last 12 years – I know  exactly how important is to get a chance to present yourself in front of some some big ‘faces’ – investors and innovation experts, people with experience (and good intentions). If you intend to succeed in any field, in this case we talk about IT, it is extremely important to network with not only technology guys, but also journalists, political guys, marketers, innovation experts, etc.  They all know overall market better than you, and indeed will point you to some trick & tips that you have minimal chances to learn, any other way in your career. So, listen to what they have to say, carefully, at least I use to.

Startbootcamp and HUB387

Sarajevo’s first technological park HUB387 hosted the members of  a “regional Pitch day” on 17-18 May. In this way, Sarajevo was the first city in the region, as a host to the biggest European startup accelerator Startupbootcamp from Berlin.
On this occasion some of the well known Europe’s IT experts and innovation specialists arrived to Sarajevo, like Andy Shannon, Head of Global operations at Startup Bootcamp Berlin, which is making accelerator programs, and in addition to Berlin, his team has also developed its business in Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Eindhoven, London and Tel Aviv. Among others, we also hosted Mike Butcher, editor and founder at TechCrunch.com, Tobias Stone, enterprise and innovation fellow from University of Huddersfield who is running work in London and Berlin. At the host side, Edin Saracevic, founder of HUB387 did amazing work, to provide that eminent guests feel pleasant and comfortable in our city.

 

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The call for applications was open for the whole region of the former Yugoslavia, and HUB387 invited all individuals and teams which had, or wanted to develop a startup idea, not to miss this unique opportunity. Sarajevo “Pitch Day” was entitled as „the entrance“ in the world of global business for the most successful regional startup entrepreneurs from Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

It was told that Startupbootcamp will offer the three month program in their Berlin accelerator to the selected startups. In this way, teams would get the opportunity to develop their ideas in cooperation with respected mentors and all with the secured resources for the accelerated development. After 100 days of intensive work, the startups should have be able to present their products to the wider public, and to the chosen group of investors. According to the statistics done so far, more than 70% of startups which go through the Startupbootcamp program were successful in getting the investment for further development, and the way to become more successful companies in future.
I personally attended Sarajevo Pitch Day last Saturday. It was really amazing to see the crowd and listen to the guests (mentors mentioned earlier in article) – they all came with huge expertize and experience to share, from large and successfull teams/companies they’ve been operating with across Europe.

 

Be brave, don’t lose your focus

The one thing I noticed at the online registration form, a day earlier, was that plan scheduled for at least 10 Startups to Pitch their ideas to the jury, that day. Unfortunately, only 8 teams presented themselves on the stage. It was a pity, and a sign that we need to rise awareness among young teams and talented people to get courage and get to stage. Undoubtly, there is a strong concentration of IT talent in the Balkans countries, all we need now is a bit mentorship and education (and of course, investment, which comes naturally in later phase). It is not easy to present idea on stage, in front of Investors, so I would advice the teams to choose from their team a guy who can do this sensitive ‘work’ in the best possible way. You have 3-5 minutes to present your several years’ hard work, or a unique idea, so you definitely don’t want to miss that opportunity. As stated by Andy Shannon, „we don’t invest in presentations or apllications – we invest in people“, or Mike Butcher, he said: „Start your presentation with a real problem.“ When it comes to pitching your ideas to investors, the crutial thing is to explain them, what is the problem you are trying to solve, or disrupt on the market – and  then get straight to the point of how you intend to do this. It is not easy, I know. You must make long and good preparations, exercise in front of your team and finally choose the best ‘presentator’ in your team, to show the best of you and your idea.

 

I really hope events like this will happen more frequently in Sarajevo. We must ‘fight’, we must use every opportunity to become better people and more successful in future, i.e. financially stronger, because we never know what catastrophy or natural disaster may next happen. It is better to prevent than cure. It is better to be in position to provide help to those who need (as a strong), than to ask for help (if you are poor, or homeless).

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Europe

West return to 2007: Europe’s anger over incompetent politicians

Mohammad Ghaderi

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The anger and discontent of European citizens over European politicians is increasing day by day. While more than ten years have passed since the economic crisis in Europe, we are still witnessing austerity plans in this block.

France’s recent round of demonstrations isn’t limited to this country anymore, and we’re now witnessing demonstrations in countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands.

Many European citizens spent the years between 2007 and 2012 with the hope that the austerity policies would affect the devastated economy of United Europe and the Eurozone. That’s why they tried to cooperate with their own governments (which were mainly the far-right and social-democratic administrations). However, after 2012, we witnessed the end of European citizens’ patience towards politicians like Merkel.

Part of this dissatisfaction revealed itself in cases such as the European Parliamentary Elections in 2014, where more than 100 right extremists managed to enter the European Parliament. Now, in 2018, we are witnessing the continuation of the economic crisis in Europe in the security, social and political spheres.

It’s not without a reason that the number of nationalist groups’ supporters has increased in the mentioned areas. The security crisis is strongly felt in today’s Europe. Common policies which were adopted by European authorities couldn’t improve the security crisis within the Schengen borders and other European borders.

During 2015 and 2016 (and somehow in 2017), the Immigration and security crises in Europe caused other issues such as the economic crisis to become marginalized. But now it’s shadowed over the whole of Europe. Under such circumstances, the main question of European citizens is that what was the impact of austerity policies adopted for ten years inside the EU borders?

They can clearly see that the adoption of such policies has had no effects on improving their economic conditions. The existing economic crisis continues to be felt in everyday life of European citizens. The rise of the signs of the financial crisis in Europe, and the decline in credit ratings, and the growth of unemployment in countries that continue to be affected by the financial crisis have created many social crises in Europe.

The protests that are taking place today in France and other European countries are not merely an objection to rising fuel prices or tax increases for low-income groups. It is a protest against the unstable economic structure of the European Union and the Eurozone.

Emmanuel Macron, the young French president, as an economist, promised to redefine the existing economic structure in the Eurozone, with regard to the current economic crisis. However, Macron himself has now become the symbol of crisis in Europe!

The economic crisis in European countries doesn’t limit to austerity policies! The external debt crisis in the European countries should also be added to the economic and credit crises in the West. The crisis is heavily extended in countries like Italy, causing a lot of trouble for other member states of the Eurozone. The economic cohesion of the Eurozone member states has fueled this trend.

In any case, it seems that the patience of European citizens has come to an end. As noted, according to the predictions, these crises were to be resolved before 2012, and economic growth symbols was to be replaced by austerity symbols. But at the moment, there is little indication of economic growth in European countries, and austerity policies remain strong.

Finally, it should be concluded that the European countries, especially the EU member states, have no choice but to “self-destruct” their economic foundations and replace them with new patterns. If European officials continue to insist on existing methods and economic models, they will be doomed to failure in the near future. In this case, nationalist groups and far-right extremists will dominate Europe’s political, economic, social and security equations, and this would definitely be a terrible nightmare for those like Merkel and Macron.

First published in our partner MNA

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EU steps up action against disinformation

MD Staff

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To protect its democratic systems and public debates and in view of the 2019 European elections as well as a number of national and local elections that will be held in Member States by 2020, the EU is presenting today an Action Plan to step up efforts to counter disinformation in Europe and beyond.

Taking stock of the progress made so far and following up on the call made by European leaders in June 2018 to protect the Union’s democratic systems, the European Commission and the High Representative are setting out concrete measures to tackle disinformation, including the creation of a Rapid Alert System and close monitoring of the implementation of the Code of Practice signed by the online platforms. The Action Plan also foresees an increase of resources devoted to the issue.

High Representative/Vice President Federica Mogherini said: “Healthy democracy relies on open, free and fair public debate. It’s our duty to protect this space and not allow anybody to spread disinformation that fuels hatred, division, and mistrust in democracy. As the European Union, we’ve decided to act together and reinforce our response, to promote our principles, to support the resilience of our societies, within our borders and in the neighbourhood. It’s the European way to respond to one of the main challenges of our times.” 

Andrus Ansip, Vice-President responsible for the Digital Single Market, said: “We need to be united and join our forces to protect our democracies against disinformation. We have seen attempts to interfere in elections and referenda, with evidence pointing to Russia as a primary source of these campaigns. To address these threats, we propose to improve coordination with Member States through a Rapid Alert System, reinforce our teams exposing disinformation, increase support for media and researchers, and ask online platforms to deliver on their commitments. Fighting disinformation requires a collective effort.”

Stepping up detection, response and awareness

The Action Plan – prepared in close cooperation also with Commissioner for Justice, Consumers and Gender Equality Věra Jourová; Commissioner for Security Union Julian King and Commissioner for Digital Economy and Society Mariya Gabriel – focuses on four areas key to effectively build up the EU’s capabilities and strengthen cooperation between Member States and the EU:

Improved detection: Strategic Communication Task Forces and the EU Hybrid Fusion Cell in the European External Action Service (EEAS), as well as the EU delegations in the neighbourhood countries will be reinforced with significant additional specialised staff and data analysis tools. The EEAS’ strategic communication budget to address disinformation and raise awareness about its adverse impact is expected to more than double, from €1.9 million in 2018 to €5 million in 2019. EU Member States should complement these measures by reinforcing their own means to deal with disinformation.  

Coordinated response: A dedicated Rapid Alert System will be set up among the EU institutions and Member States to facilitate the sharing of data and assessments of disinformation campaigns and to provide alerts on disinformation threats in real time. The EU institutions and Member States will also focus on proactive and objective communication on Union values and policies.

Online platforms and industry:The signatories of the Code of Practice should swiftly and effectively implement the commitments made under the Code of Practice, focusing on actions that are urgent for the European elections in 2019. This includes in particular ensuring transparency of political advertising, stepping up efforts to close active fake accounts, labelling non-human interactions (messages spread automatically by ‘bots’) and cooperating with fact-checkers and academic researchers to detect disinformation campaigns and make fact-checked content more visible and widespread. The Commission, with the help of the European group of regulators in charge of audio-visual media services, will ensure a close and continuous monitoring of the implementation of the commitments.

Raising awareness and empowering citizens: In addition to targeted awareness campaigns, the EU institutions and Member States will promote media literacy through dedicated programmes. Support will be provided to national multidisciplinary teams of independent fact-checkers and researchers to detect and expose disinformation campaigns across social networks.

Finally, the Commission is today also reporting on the progress made in tackling online disinformation since the presentation of its Communication in April 2018.

Next steps

The European Commission and the High Representative will develop and implement the measures set out in the Action Plan, in close cooperation with Member States and the European Parliament.

With a view to the European elections, the Rapid Alert System will be set up by March 2019. This will be complemented by further strengthening relevant resources.

The signatories of the Code of Practice will have to provide the first implementation update to the Commission by the end of 2018, which the Commission will then publish in January 2019. Between January and May, the online platforms will have to report to the Commission on a monthly basis. The Commission will also carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implementation of the Code of Practice in its first 12 months. Should the implementation and the impact of the Code of Practice prove unsatisfactory, the Commission may propose further measures, including of a regulatory nature.

Background

The European Union has been actively tackling disinformation since 2015. Followinga decision of the European Council in March 2015, in order to “challenge Russia’s ongoing disinformation campaigns“, the East StratCom Task Forcein the European External Action Service (EEAS) was set up. The Task Force, together with the relevant Commission services, focuses on effectively communicating the EU’s policies towards its eastern neighbourhood; strengthening the overall media environment in the eastern neighbourhood, including providing support for media freedom and strengthening independent media; and improving the EU’s capacity to forecast, address and raise awareness of pro-Kremlin disinformation activities.

In 2016, the Joint Framework on countering hybrid threats was adopted, followed by the Joint Communication on increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities to address hybrid threats in 2018.

In April 2018, the Commission outlined a European approach and self-regulatory tools to tackle disinformation online, including an EU-wide Code of Practice against Disinformation, support for an independent network of fact-checkers, and tools to stimulate quality journal­ism. On 16 October, the Code of Practice was signed by Facebook, Google, Twitter and Mozilla as well as the trade association representing online platforms and trade associations representing the advertising industry and advertisers.

In his 2018 State of the Union Address, President Juncker also put forward a set of concrete measures to make sure that next year’s European Parliament elections are organised in a free, fair and secure manner. The measures include greater transparency in online political advertisements and the possibility to impose sanctions for the illegal use of personal data in order to deliberately influence the outcome of the European elections.

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Leave not stay? EU approves UK exit

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On November 25, leaders of the EU member states approved an agreement on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the Union. The last objections, voiced by Spain, were lifted after Madrid received “assurances from the British government concerning Gibraltar.” Now the British Prime Minister Theresa May will have to secure the approval of the country’s parliament. This may prove to be more difficult than reaching agreement on Brexit with member of the European Union. According to commentators, few, if any in the UK, endorse the agreement in its present version. If backed by the British Parliament, the deal will then have to be favored by a simple majority of the European Parliament. Afterwards, the EU Council will hold a vote, in which the support of at least 20 member countries is required, representing at least 65% of the Union’s population. No endorsement by national parliaments is required. Should the decision receive the approval of all parties involved, the exit procedure will start on March 29, 2019. The transition period will last at least 18 months.

Last week, the text of the Brexit agreement, which is nearly six hundred pages long, was finally approved. Next, British Prime Minister Teresa May eventually succeeded in winning the support of most Cabinet members. At the same time, a number of ministers, including Dominic Raab, who is in charge of exiting the EU, resigned in protest against the final version. Now, the British Parliament is to vote on the bill to achieve agreement with the EU on the terms of the exit in early December. In addition to the text of the Agreement, a Political Declaration has been drafted which briefly describes the main principles of further relations between the UK and the EU, including the positions of the two parties in future negotiations on a trade agreement.

The 17-month negotiations marathon was extremely difficult. Triggered largely by discontent about the so-called “uncontrolled” influx of migrants, Britain’s exit from the EU quickly turned from a “technical” issue into one of the main challenges to the future of the Union. The EU’s position of late has been to “minimize the damage from Brexit”. In early September, when the third round of negotiations between London and Brussels came to a close, most observers said, it fell through. It was only by mid-November that the parties had harmonized their positions on the financial conditions of the exit, the protection of the rights of EU citizens in the United Kingdom and the British in Europe, as well as on the “consistency of talks about the future”.

At present, the outcome for the EU looks fairly beneficial. According to The Economist, the British authorities have failed to achieve more than half of their original goals. London’s independence from the EU in matters of trade and customs regulation has been postponed at least until 2021. Until then, the UK will remain within the regulatory procedures of the EU Customs Union and will continue to live by the standards of the EU’s common market and their interpretation by the European Court of Justice. The UK will pay the EU about £ 39 billion in a one-off payment and there might be additional payments in the future. Instead of signing a comprehensive free trade agreement by March 2019, which London had sought to secure so much, a Political Declaration was approved which states the parties’ intention to conclude such an agreement “in the future.”

What can be seen as success for the UK is the cessation of the free movement of people between the UK and the EU. However, the approved version of the Brexit agreement envisages visa-free travel for both Europeans and the British “for tourist or business purposes.” Finally, London managed to secure the preservation of the “transparent” land border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. At the same time, it had to be paid for with the de facto retention of Northern Ireland within the EU’s jurisdiction, pending “further arrangements” to be reached during the transition period – that is, until December 2020 at the earliest.

The two leading EU countries – Germany and France – have managed to demonstrate the Union’s strong unity in the face of outgoing Britain. The Brexit Agreement was clinched on Brussels’ terms, which imply de facto payment, in the literal and figurative sense of the word, of a sort of indemnities. Meanwhile, it may turn out that the tough stance of Paris and Berlin on Great Britain will not bring any special political dividends either to Macron, whose reformist ideas are garnering less and less support in the EU, or to Merkel, who announced her intention to resign as chancellor by 2021. Finally, the mounting friction between Brussels and Warsaw, Budapest, Vienna, and now, Rome, shows that the deep-seated causes that underlie Britain’s choice of two years ago to vote for leaving the EU, are still there. And the position of Britain’s opponents who are trying, in the name of deepening EU integration, to turn a blind eye to problems for which there can be no politically correct solutions, is triggering ever more irritation on the part of European voters. Meanwhile, there is only 6 months to go before elections to the European Parliament are due to take place.

In turn, Theresa May is convinced that she has succeeded in achieving “the best deal possible.” Finance minister Philip Hammond has described the deal with the EU as “the best option for the British economy.” Meanwhile, this agreement has cost May a lot politically. In addition to resignations among Cabinet members, a number of parliamentarians from the Conservative Party persist in their attempts to raise the issue of confidence in the prime minister. The final document is subject to serious criticism, both by opponents and supporters of Brexit, including a considerable number of outspoken representatives of the Conservative Party. For example, Boris Johnson, one of the trailblazers of Brexit, a former foreign minister, and a favorite in the so far unofficial campaign for the post of prime minister, has voted the version of the Agreement signed with the EU as “a huge mistake.” According to Johnson, by approving the current text of the agreement “Britain will become a satellite state.” In this regard, experts anticipate serious difficulties, up to the rejection of the Agreement, or, at least, a significant delay in terms of passing the text through the British Parliament. A negative result will require the government to submit a new action plan within three weeks, but no later than January 21 of next year.

Teresa May’s major problem is that for success she needs more than the votes of her party. A small majority in parliament is provided by the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). However, many DUP members are extremely dissatisfied with the de facto preservation of EU regulation in Northern Ireland, which is enshrined in the Brexit Agreement. In their opinion, such a “compromise” “undermines the unity of Britain.” In addition, a week ago, not only the majority of opposition MPs, but also several dozen Conservatives came out against the May plan. According to critics, the deal agreed by May forces the UK to continue to follow EU regulations for an unspecified period of time. While doing so, London will not be able to influence decisions taken in Brussels, nor will it be able to withdraw from the Agreement unilaterally. Thus, the likelihood  of a negative vote in the House of Commons is estimated as fairly high. Besides, the mounting contradictions within the ruling circles of Great Britain may provoke a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister May before the agreement is submitted to parliament. The loss of confidence in the prime minister would lead either to the arrival at Downing Street of a supporter of a tougher course on the EU, or to early elections. In both cases, the chances of Britain exiting the EU without any agreement will increase significantly.

According to the Times, members of the House of Commons will have to choose between a “bad deal” and two alternatives, which are likely to be even worse. If parliamentarians vote against the May plan, Britain will either leave the EU without any agreement at all – “tough Brexit”, or will hold a second referendum, in the hope that this time the people will vote to maintain membership in the European Union. Both options are extremely risky. ‘Tough Brexit’ can trigger a massive political and socio-economic crisis. “Another referendum will further divide the already divided country, make the population angry over the need for another voting, will further complicate relations with Brussels, and on top of that, it does not guarantee that the result will be different”.

It cannot be ruled out that there are quite a few in Europe who, deep in their hearts, hope for such a development of events. Brexit without an agreement would mean that Britain would have to build legal relations with continental Europe almost from scratch, that is, in such a way which will demonstrate to all potentially “hesitant” members of the EU that attempts to undermine the Union will bring them only huge losses and damages. And another referendum as such would deal a substantial blow to euro-skeptics and “populists” of every description. An even greater effect would be London’s rejection of Brexit. This would seriously strengthen the position of supporters of European integration in the context of their struggle for the posts in the EU executive and legislative branches in 2019.

Thus, chances are still high that London, with or without a “deal”, will have to pay the highest possible price for independence. Against this background, the incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May is rapidly losing popularity, both among voters and within her own party. As the voices of supporters of the “re-referendum” on EU membership are getting louder, the question that arises is whether the success, albeit a compromise, which Downing Street has achieved so far, will be just another Pyrrhic victory, of which the British history has seen so many. Or will Brexit give a new impetus to the development of the United Kingdom? No one can predict now.

First published in our partner International Affairs

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