On November 8, 2013, the Hellenic Coast Guard detained the cargo ship Nour M sailing under the flag of Sierra Leone in the Aegean Sea. The reason for the detention was the information that the ship was carrying 20,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles and explosives in 59 freight containers without proper documents.
It is reported that the ship departed from the portof Oktjabrsk (Ukraine) on October 25.According to the ship’s captain, Hüseyin Yilmaz, its final port of destination was the port of Tripoli (Lebanon), and the cargo was intended for the Libyan Ministry of Defence.
On September 7 this year, The Washington Post published an article which stated that Rosoboronexport, Russian agency, uses the port of Oktjabrsk for the supply of arms toSyria and Venezuela. This assumption is supported by the data of March 20-27, 2012 on the delivery of Russian arms (SA-10 Grumble and SA-17 Grizzly surface-to-air missile systems, Smerch multiple rocket launchers and SSC-6 Sennight mobile coastal defence missile systems) by Ocean Voyager and Ocean Fortune ships to Venezuela. Both ships belonged to Kaalbye Shipping International, which is a partner of Rosoboronexport. This company is mentioned in the report of Mike Rogers (Michigan politician, member of the Republican Party), the Chairman of the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence,as involved in the supplyof Russian arms to Syria.
Reports of the independent research carried out by C4ADS indicate that the port in Mykolaiv Oblasthas become one of the key transit points for the supply of Russian arms to troubled areas of the world.According to the analysts of C4ADS, ships that sail under the flags of Syria and Lebanon are used to smuggle weapons to Syria. Several Syrian cargo ships made more than ten sailings between the port of Oktjabrsk and one of the three major ports of Syria (Latakia, Tartus, which is home to a Russian naval facility, and Baniyas) during the period from January 2012 to mid-2013, although there are no reliable evidence of the presence of weapons on board.
After the outbreak of civil war in Syria in 2011, Russia has continued to comply with the terms of the previously signed arms contracts, includingones for the supplyof various types of weapons, and abstained from signing the treaty on the arms trade in April 2013. Russian Foreign Ministry insists that the country supplies to Syria exclusively defensive weapons, and, in response to the criticism fromthe United States, pointed out that the supply of SA-10 Grumble air defence systemsis a deterrent that preventsoutside interference into the situation inside the country.
Thus, there is evidence that the Russian Federation supplies arms to Syria,including through the Ukrainian port of Oktjabrsk.
Some sources claim that the detention of the vessel indicates that somebody had given a tip-off about its cargo to the Greek authorities.
After the detention of the vessel by the Hellenic Coast Guard, foreign media have actively supported the hypothesis that the vessel was bound for a Turkish port on the border with Syria, or for a port in Syria. The first were the news agencies of Greece (ANA) and Lebanon (Al-Sharq al-Jadid).The Athenian news agency stated that the final destination was set as Tartus (Syria) in the maritime transport system, which is contrary to the documents carried by the vessel, and to open information databases. Moreover, the information systems, which the Greek media cite, warn that their data are not official, and cannot be used for commercial or navigation purposes, and thus may be inaccurate or erroneous.
In addition, the ship’s captain provided the Greek authorities with the documents thatshowed that the cargo was supplied in accordance with the FOB terms, which means that itceased to be Ukrainian immediately after leaving the port.
The end-user certificates issued by the Ministry of Defence of Libya were attached to the documents, which would ab initio eliminate any questions regarding the destination country.
However, the supply of arms to Libya from Ukraine is contrary to the interests of the Kremlin in the region. On September 2, 2013, Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said that the illegal flow of small arms into the hot spots in the Middle East from Libya was reported, and 12 countries are involved. However, on September 10, 2013, Sergey Lavrov said that Russia intends to actively cooperate with Libya in the supply of arms, training of personnel and protection of its borders. ‘We see good prospects in developing military and technical co-operation, including supply of arms and necessary equipment, as well as training of personnel for the Libyan army and police.We have also discussed possible projects that will help our Libyan friends to strengthen border security,’ he said after meeting his Libyan counterpart, Mohamed Abdelaziz. So, the Libyan arms market is returning to the area of interest of the Kremlin, which will try to squeeze competitors out of the market.
It should be noted that the detention of the vessel by the Hellenic Coast Guard coincided with the following events:
1. Visit of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych to the Russian Federation.
2. Signing of the European Union Association Agreement in Vilnius on November 28.
3. Transfer of first five T-84 Oplot main battle tanks to the Royal Thai Army, and success of the delegation of Ukroboronpromin promotion of its production in Uruguay (late October 2013).
This may indicate that the staged arms smuggling into the conflict zonecould be part of a planned action against Ukraine,and could be aimed at discrediting the nation’s leadership, and the state as an active participant in the global arms market, forming an unfavourable international image to prevent the signing of the European Union Association Agreement.
So today there are three versions of the scandal’s causes:
Version No. 1. The events involving the Nour M vessel may be indicative of a special operation against Ukraine to cover a large supply of weapons from Russia to Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria diverting the world’s attentionon the legitimate cargointended for the Government of Libya. According to our estimates, at the time of transportation of the cargo by the Nour M vessel, the Kremlin could ship large quantities of weapons to the official Damascus, and the detention of the Nour M vessel by the Hellenic Coast Guard and the subsequent scandal were aimed to divert attention from that.
So, Moscow, accused of supplying weapons to Syria,is interested in linking the port of Oktjabrsk to the supply of Ukrainian weapons and distancing from the logistics arrangement that uses this port.In addition, the scandal with an accusation of Ukraine of supplying weapons to the area of civil war in Syria would allow to withdraw or to question the similar accusations brought earlier against the Kremlin. Also, such action would undermine the position of Ukraine on the world arms market, disrupt the planned contracts, and squeeze Ukrainian exporters out of the markets where Russia has interest.
Version No. 2. The cargo from Ukraine can be labelled as intended for the Syrian rebels (for instance, Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al-Qaeda associate),which will allow the Kremlin to maintain its position on the supply of arms to Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Version No. 3.Defamation of Ukraine before the third Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius. Although the vessel was detained on November 8, the opening of containers did not begin until November 11. If the investigation continues at such pace, it can drag on until the Summit in Vilnius. Launching a media campaign to accuse Ukraine of illegal arms sales is also possible.
There is a high probability that the situation surrounding the detention of Nour M is the solution of several problemsand the above versions are interrelated. The effectiveness of using arms scandals to influence the geopolitical and domestic political landscapes, and to drive the competition out of the arms market was demonstrated at the beginning of thenoughtiesduring the notorious ‘Kolchuga (an ESM system) scandal’. Given the extremely tense situationaround Ukraine, the instigators of the scandalmay pursue not one but several goals. If it is true, a large-scale campaign to discredit Ukraine using special methods lies ahead.
New strategy of U.S. counter-intelligence: Real and unreal threats
The newly published US Counter-Intelligence Strategy for 2020-2022 puts Russia and China at the top of the list of countries that pose a threat to the USA. “Russia and China are operating throughout the world, using all power instruments at their disposal against the United States, resorting to a wide variety of modern intelligence methods”, – the document says.
The strategy formulates five objectives for the counter-intelligence service: to protect the critically important infrastructure, cut the number of threats to basic supply chains, counteract the exploitation of American economy, defend the American democracy against foreign influence, and repulse cyberattacks and technological disruptions that could come from foreign intelligence.
The US has made public only a brief 11-page version of the strategy, whereas its full, classified variant will be submitted to members of intelligence committees in the House of Representatives and the Senate, to White House officials, heads of corresponding agencies and other officials with access to classified information. The mere list of goals for counter-intelligence gives rise to questions such as whether they are fully grounded or whether they are all but tribute to the current political trends in the USA.
As we read «protect the American democracy against foreign influence» we understand what they mean by ‘foreign’ – both Democrats and Republicans keep talking about Russian interference in American elections. Although this talk has long been dismissed by many as inconsistent with reality, it nevertheless, continues unabated.
The strategy, published on the website of the US National Counter-Intelligence and Security Center, is a renewed version of the 2015 document. The Center’s Director, William Ivanina, said as he presented the report that modern technology – artificial intelligence, encryption technology, internet of things – make the work of counter-intelligence more complicated. According to CBS, W. Ivanina has been saying since 2014 that China poses the most serious long-term threat to US security. In his words, the theft of American intellectual property, allegedly committed by the Chinese, cost the US 400 billion dollars annually.
Statements about stealing intellectual property are not new and are being exploited by the Americans to justify a trade war they are waging against China. It is not for the first time that the Trump administration is resorting to “banned methods” adding the country’s economic problems to the list of national security threats, which makes it possible to introduce restrictive measures against China.
The strategy in question is seeing light just as the debates on a new American budget are getting under way. This is not accidental given that documents of this kind can justify budgetary spending. In 2021 the US government is planning to spend $1.5 billion to counter “China’s influence” and another $596 million to establish “diplomatic cooperation for securing the strategy in regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. A statement to this effect is part of the press release circulated by the US State Department and published after the White House submitted to the Congress a draft budget for the next fiscal year.
However, proposals on the budget, though reflecting the position of the US administration, do not always become law. In most cases, the US Congress approves the budget depending on the political situation at home. Now that they have sustained defeat on Trump’s impeachment, the Democrats have a good chance to take it out on the budget. Democratic minority leader in the Senate Chuck Schumer has described the draft budget submitted by the incumbent administration for the next year as “a plan to destroy America”.
Considering that these are all but domestic political games, it is not immediately clear what Russia and China have to do with them.
From our partner International Affairs
Modi’s extremism: Implications for South Asia
Hindutva is a main form of Hindu nationalism in India this term was popularized by Vinayak Damodar Savarkar in the 20th century. It is reinforced by the Hindu extremist volunteer organization Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP), Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and Hindu Sena. Hindutva movement has been expressed today as almost fascist in the classical sense (sticking to a disputed idea of homogenized majority and dominance of culture). The Hindutva moment has gained enormous momentum under the government of Modi (Zaman A. , 2019). Under the Modi’s government dozens of Muslims have been killed for the protection of cows. Most of them are those who allegedly slaughtering cows. These attacks indicate that Hindu extremism has increased. Even, lower caste Hindus also faced violence from hardliner Hindu extremists. (Zaman A. , 2019) .
The prevailing extremism in India is no longer a national issue, but is spilling over to become a regional flashpoint and has worldwide implications. The regional stability is endangered due to the current situation in Indian-occupied Kashmir (IoK) (Qureshi, 2019). Since the Modi’s extremist policies revoked article 370 of the constitution of India in which special and independent status had been given to the Indian-occupied Kashmir (IoK). This kind of extreme move of a fanatical ruler was expected, whereas, such kind of unconstitutional effort of a democratic government was not expected. Moreover, it is not only a violation of India’s constitution, but it is also a breach of United Nations Security Council Resolutions, which confirmed Kashmir as a disputed territory.
Furthermore, Article 370 and 35-A cancellation changed the demographic structure of IoK. Article 35A prevented the outsiders from staying, buying properties, getting local government jobs or scholarships in IoK than it annulment permitted outsiders to buy properties there. Hindutva forces are trying to conquer the IoK territory with its 800000 military crowd, which is making the situation more instable there. It would not have lasting consequences for India, but for the whole region (Jaspal, 2019). The Kashmir imbroglio should be the concern of the entire world because it is a perilous flashpoint that could lead to a catastrophic war between two nuclear powers. If this happens, it would not engulf the region, but the entire world. The International community is insensitive towards the recent brutal developments have taken place in IoK. The brutalities boldly committed by the more than 500,000 Indian troops in the occupied valley. There should be a strong response of big powers and the international community towards the atrocious changes in India (Elahi, 2019).
It is not the first time, Narendra Modi’s administration has involved in many disputes with the regional countries which has put the regional security at risk. Like, the Modi government relationship is not just deteriorated with Pakistan, but other neighbouring states too. In 2015, Madhesi Crisis in Nepal and border issues tensed the India Nepal relations. However, India restricted the flow of trade at the check posts whereas; India did not accept this blame. India also has not good relation with Sri Lanka since 2014 as Sri Lanka has been more disposed towards China with the signing of the infrastructure projects of belt road and initiatives. Moreover, New Dehli was concerned about the harbouring of Chinese submarines in Colombo and ruler of Maldives Abdulla Yameen signed fee trade treaties with China, which was not digestible for India (Wong, 2017).
India’s offensive nuclear posture towards Pakistan and increased violation of the Line of Control (LoC) has made the situation more adverse. India holds Pakistan responsible for every attack on its territory and its attitude towards Pakistan is very hostile. The Pathankot attack in 2016 and Pulwama attack in 2019 increased the resentment as Modi government blamed the attack on Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Muhammad. Pakistan asked India to provide evidence so that Pakistan can take action, but no evidence had been given. The Indian air force claimed launching air strikes on the camp of Jaish-e Mohammad mountainside in the Balakot region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa . While, following the attack international media and local media disgraced Indian claim of launching the attack and killing many militants. Next morning, Pakistan shot down an Indian MIG 21 fighter and captured the pilot who violated the Pakistan airspace. Still, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan showed peace gesture and released the captured pilot. (Shoukat, 2019).
The Indian airstrike’s that were launched in response to Pulwama attack were clear a breach of Pakistan’s space sovereignty. It was a clear perspective of war, however; India has continued to justify its position by calling it non-military strike. It was extremely reckless behaviour of a nuclear state. Even, history shows that such events are very rare between nuclear weapons states while the US and Russia never engaged in direct airstrike’s (Jan, 2019). Afterward, an Indian submarine also detained by the Pakistani Navy, which tried to infringe Pakistani water. India blames Pakistan for every attack and defies the Pakistan air, space and land territory itself. Besides, India is also responsible of sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan through its spies as one of them is Kulbushan Yadav (Shoukat, 2019).
India’s nuclear doctrine also changed from No First Use (NFU) to First use. The false description of surgical strikes and attacks on non-state base points has demonstrated the uncertain security environment in South Asia. The Indian nuclear doctrinal change increases the security risks in the region, particularly for Pakistan and China. At Pulwama, Pakistan clearly exposed India’s long-held fable of conventional superiority. At the same time, it is obvious that India would keep its behaviour hawkish towards Pakistan under the radical Hindutva mindset (Nawaz, 2019).
Additionally, India took another major step against the Muslims as it passed a bill on December 9, 2019 that would give the nationality to those migrants who want to become citizens of India except Muslims. This step of Prime Minster would increase the Modi Hindu-nationalist agenda. It would modify the India secular status, preserve by its founders in 1947. The Citizenship Amendment Bill passed by the lower house, the Lok Sabha with 311 votes. Now, it would be presented in the upper house and would become law soon. Hindu extremist agenda deeply unsettled the Muslims with this new law as they would make more than 200 million Muslims second class citizens and many of them stateless. It is not first extremist step of Modi, he also stripped away the autonomy of Kashmir, which was Muslim majority Indian occupied state.
Furthermore, Hindu fundamentalist build a new temple over the remains of the demolished mosque in the Ayodhya. According to Modi this would protect the maltreated Hindus, Christians and Buddhists who want to migrate from Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, this brutal legislation would extradite innocent Muslim residents, even those whose families have been in India for generation, if they cannot provide evidence of citizenship. Under the Modi’s leadership, attacks and intimidation against Muslim community have augmented and anti Muslim sentiment has become deliberately more mainstream. The people of Assam are protesting in the streets and hoisting placards again the bill because it is against their rights and identity (Gettleman & Raj, 2019).
Besides, Bangladeshi Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen cancelled his visit for two days Indian Ocean Dialogue and Delhi Dialogue XI, to India. He also rejected a statement by Indian home minister Amit Shah that the new citizenship law will provide safety to “persecuted minorities” from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. An official visit to India by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also been delayed due to the unrest in Assam. Following the protests began in Assam, a curfew was forced in four of the main cities in the state and the internet was shut down. Two paramilitary battalions were deployed to contain the demonstrations. (News, 2019).
In a nutshell, as evident from the aforementioned brutal developments, it seems that India aspires to increasingly showcase itself hegemon and potential big power in the region. The Prime Minister Modi government is impressed by the Hindu extremist ideology and making IoK its integral part by forcefully. Its hawkish policies towards Muslims in India and IoK has once again put at stake the peace and stability of the entire region of South Asia. Indian government not only targeting Muslims everywhere, but it is also seizing their identities which is dismantling secularism foundations of India. Moreover, Indian hawkish nuclear posture increases arms race in the region and it is not only threat for Pakistan but the entire region.
Emerging Cyber warfare threats to Pakistan
“The potential for the next Pearl Harbor could very well be a cyber-attack.” -Leon Panetta
In the modern era, war has been revolutionized due to rapid advancements in technology. As a result, cyber security along with its pros and cons is contributing increasingly to modern warfare. Pakistan, however, is still in the developmental phase of cyber security. Although Pakistan has passed its first law related to cyber-crimes, in the form of the 2016 Prevention of Electronic Crime Act, the overall legislation related to cyber security is still vague and not as strong to deal with the dynamic and broad-ranging nature of threats that emanate from the realms of cyber security.
In recent years, the government has taken some initiatives in order to build capacity amongst the general public such as through PAK-CERT, Presidential Initiative for Artificial Intelligence & Computing (PIAIC), Skills for all Hunarmand Pakistan, Kamyab Jawan, and National Vocational & Technical Training (NAVTTC).Yet, as has been the case for quite some time, most of these initiatives are aimed simply at spreading greater awareness to help lay the foundations for a more robust cyber security architecture. Amidst such developments, the question that arises for Pakistani policymakers is thus where their country currently stands in the cyber domain and how cyber warfare is posing threats to its national security.
In this era of innovation and connectivity even major powers such as the U.S, Russia, China, Israel and the United Kingdom remain vulnerable to an evolving spectrum of cyber threats. Across the world, states are now increasingly dependent on cyber technology which has greatly increased their chances of vulnerability. The most known example is 2015 Stuxnet virus, whereby a devastating cyber-attack on Iranian nuclear facilities wreaked havoc such as at the Nantaz Nuclear facility, significantly rolling back the Iranian nuclear program. Similarly, the WannaCry outbreak in 2017 caused mass disruption by shutting down vital computing systems in more than 80 NHS organizations in England alone. This resulted in almost 20,000 cancelled appointments, 600 GP surgeries having to return to pen and paper, and five hospitals simply diverting ambulances, unable to handle any more emergency cases. Widely attributed as being state sponsored, the attack set another devastating precedent testifying to the wide-ranging vulnerabilities that exist even in some of the world’s most advanced countries.
Pakistan’s cyber space too is insecure for many reasons because Pakistan is dependent on others for technology. According to leading global cyber security firms such as Symantec, Pakistan is among the ten most targeted countries in the world. Main targets include Pakistan’s nuclear and other critical installations, with publicly revealed assaults on an assortment of media houses, as well as the communications networks, of key government departments including, transport and, basic utilities. Such threats for instance were further confirmed by the Snowden documents released between 2013-2014 that had showed how the NSA was keeping an eye on Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders, utilizing a malware called SECONDATE.
Recently in the year 2019, Rising Security Research Institute has captured the attack launched by the internationally renowned Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) organization “Rattlesnake” through the Rising Threat Intelligence System. This time, the organization had targeted the Pakistani Navy via Target collision hijacking method. Specifically targeting the Pakistan Naval Public Relations Bureau, the attempt was aimed at stealing vital information from secure military networks while planting misleading documents masquerading as official statements from the Pakistan Navy regarding its regional neighbors such as China and India. Based on such threats, Pakistan must be readily prepared for any kind of cyber espionage and take steps towards establishing a strong national cyber policy to protect its civilian and military infrastructure.
Therefore, at this stage it is imperative that Pakistan seriously focus on the development of a robust cyber war apparatus. This would especially help mitigate the numerous threats being posed to its banking system, as well as major government networks such as its ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as other military networks that have been previously targeted such as in the case shown above. As such Pakistan can take a number of initial steps by developing strategies to prevent malwares and denial of service (DOS) attacks to reduce such threats at least to a certain level.
Yet, Pakistan has still not developed a cohesive Cyber Command or any National Cyber Policy to deal with the regional cyber threats being posed to Pakistan. Even though Pakistan has recently developed a cyber-security auditing and evaluation lab, it is still in its formative stages. There is still immense space to develop advanced tools and research technologies to protect Pakistan’s cyberspace, sensitive data, and local economy from cyber-attacks while restricting illegal penetrations in it. Especially such as the initiative taken by the newly setup National Centre for Cyber Security which aims increase the number of indigenously trained cyber security professionals within the public sector.
Keeping to this trajectory Pakistan should emphasize more on indigenously developing its own cyber security industry so that in the near future it could benefit both its civilian and military infrastructure in the long run. Hence, while Pakistan may be limited in its ability to wage a strong offensive campaign within the realm of cyber warfare at the moment, such steps would go a long way in helping lay the foundations to build something greater on.
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