Not too long ago, the economic invincibility of the developed world seemed immovable. But then BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and now with the addition of South Africa becoming BRICS, are on the world stage as serious contenders.
Today, the BRICS countries, with a third of the world’s land mass, more than 43% of the world’s population, 18% of the global trade, and 20% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), have now attained a level of economic importance since 2006 that may see no turning back. And those BRICS countries are now a political reality (Mielniczuk, 2013).
While the international financial meltdown in 2008 produced economic crises in the developed world, BRICS demonstrated steady development and even outperformed some developed countries. For instance, when in 2009, the economies of Japan and Germany declined by 6%, Brazil sustained its growth, India’s economy showed a 5.9% growth and China 8.1%; Russia’s economy declined by 7% (Biggemann and Fam, 2011).
When in 2012, the GDP growth for the USA was 2.2%, Japan 1.9%, Canada 1.7%, Germany 0.7%, and the United Kingdom 0.3%, BRICS largely outperformed the developed nations with GDP growth for Brazil at 0.9%, Russia 3.4%, India 3.2%, China 7.8%, and South Africa 2.5% ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG).
Reviewing the 2009 real GDP statistics, the World Bank noted that Brazil took the spot as the world’s 10th largest economy, Russia 13th, India 11th, and China 3rd; in 2009, the BRICS economies together were equivalent to 50% of the world’s largest economy, the U.S. economy.
But 10 years back in 1999, Brazil was the world’s 10th largest economy, Russia 15th, India 16th, and China 7th; and together they were equivalent to 30% of the U.S. economy. The World Bank further noted that between 1999 and 2009, the U.S. economy grew by 20%, Brazil’s growth was 36%, with Russia 69%, India 92%, and China was 2.5 times richer.
BRICS countries are now key players in the emerging economies’ world dominance; and with this emerging dominance of BRICS, some economies in the developed world are now on the defensive. BRICS countries continue to transform Wallerstein’s world system theory, among others, where for decades, if not centuries, under different ideological labels, there have been unequal economic and political relationships between the developed and the developing world.
BRICS countries persisted in the knowledge and applications that they will not allow themselves to remain in a state of permanent dependence. And they have moved on by removing the foundations of permanent dependence vis-à-vis making a dent on export dependency, the debt trap, and multinational corporations, as these remain poor nations’ predators.
The author presents a comparative focus on India in relation to the BRICS countries, as India debatably is the least formidable of the BRICS countries in terms of economic dominance. And using India, and perhaps any of the other BRICS country, may demonstrate that poverty is not a permanent condition, and many small, poor economies could strive for betterment vis-à-vis applying the BRICS model, where appropriate. Of course, you would need far more than the BRICS model to transform poverty into surplus.
Drawing mainly from the IMF World Economic Outlook, India carried a 3.5% economic growth rate from the 1950s through the 1970s, sporting a stagnant economy for almost three decades. But in the period 2000-2005, India experienced just over 6% average GDP growth rate, less than 5% inflation, and all BRICS countries had about 10% unemployment; and in 2005, India’s GDP volume was about US$800 billion and its GDP per capita tottered around US$1,000. Among BRICS countries in terms of GDP composition in 2004, India had the largest agricultural sector with a growing service sector; India had no current account surplus in 2005, when the other BRICS countries did; and in the same year had a small amount of foreign reserves, approximating US$150 billion.
Extracting data from the IMF World Economic Outlook (2011 and 2012), here are some selected statistics for India and the other BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa) in 2010: India’s real GDP was 10.6% (Brazil 7.5%, Russia 4.3%, China 10.4%, and South Africa 2.9%). In 2011, India’s real GDP was 7.2% with the other BRICS countries as follows: Brazil 2.7%, Russia 4.3%, China 9.2%, and South Africa 3.1%). In 2011, India’s balance on current account was -2.8% of GDP (Brazil -2.1%, Russia 5.5%, China 2.8%, and South Africa -3.3% ) and projected to be -3.2% in 2012; India’s consumer prices were 5.4% (Brazil 6.6%, Russia 8.4%, China 8.6%, and South Africa 5.0%) and projected to be 8.2% in 2012.
As stated earlier, in 2012, GDP growth for Brazil was 0.9%, Russia 3.4%, India 3.2%, China 7.8%, and South Africa 2.5% ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG).
On the basis of these selected data, India continues to be the weakling among the BRICS countries on average growth rate, consumer prices, and balance on current account. And its faltering growth rate may be gradually regressing toward the average GDP growth of 6% it had between 2000 and 2005. A high growth rate is necessary for a growing population and a growing workforce, and also a critical economic indicator to maintain its status within BRICS.
In addition, India would need an active Knowledge Economy (KE) to sustain a high growth rate that has a relationship with total factor productivity (TFP); TFP is the nation’s capability to create and use knowledge. And the World Bank projected that India’s TFP will grow by more than 50% in 2020 than what it was in 1991/92.
Nevertheless, in light of the IMF World Economic Outlook 2011 and 2012 statistics on India, it may be worth revisiting the concerns raised in the following: Das et al. (2010) found that in the 1980-2004 period productivity was moderate with pointed fluctuations; and productivity increases arose largely out of technical change, as there was little efficiency over the last 30 years (Alejandro, Yu, & Fan, 2009).
The World Bank (2005) noted that India would need to develop policies concentrating on effectively utilizing knowledge to increase productivity and the nation’s welfare. And, invariably, some people refer to this knowledge economy as ICT industries.
The World Bank suggests that KE is broader; KE refers to how an economy channels and applies new and existing knowledge to raise productivity and total welfare; for this reason, KE will make a difference between poverty and wealth.
India is forging ahead at a brisk pace with its KE. And perhaps, small, poor countries around the world, in order to rid themselves of their poverty, would have to show more than keen interest in KE, and start intensively building KE to spur economic growth; and to ensure that that economic growth reaches the poor and vulnerable population.
What is challenging for India is that its real GDP declined from 10.6% in 2010 to 3.2% in 2012, and its current account balance is now negative (where domestic investments are funded through foreigners’ savings) and way behind Russia and China. Only a few days ago, the IMF reduced its growth forecast from 5.6% to 3.8% for this fiscal year, and the rupee (India’s local currency) fell in the wake of this IMF’s forecast. And so India’s quest to becoming a robust knowledge economy remains a formidable challenge, as a consistently high growth rate requires a KE. And would India be able to sustain its status as a constituent of BRICS?
Role of WTO in Regularization of International Trade
International trade is one of the main features of the globalized world and global economy. There it needs also a well-organized institutional mechanism to regulate it. World Trade Organization is an international organization established in 1995, whose main objective is to facilitate trade relations among its member countries for their mutual benefits. Currently 164 states are its members. The activities and works of WTO are performing by a Secretariate of about 700 staff located in Geneva, Switzerland, led by the Director General. English, Spanish and French are the official languages of World Trade Organization. The annual budget of WTO is about 180 million dollars.
Since its creation it is playing an important role in the regularization of international trade. It offers a forum and facilitation for negotiating trade agreements in order to reduce the barriers in the way of smooth international trade among member countries. Thus, the role of this organization is playing very important role in the regularization of international trade which is contributing to economic development and growth of member countries in this globalized world. The World Trade Organization also offers an institutional structure and legal framework for the execution and supervising of the international trade related agreements which are very helpful in regularization of international trade. It also settles disputes, disagreements and conflicts occurring during the interpretation and execution of the components of the international agreements related to international trade. During the past 60 years, the World Trade Organization and its predecessor organization the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) have assisted to establish a solid and flourishing global trade system, by this means helping to extraordinary international economic development.
The WTO is regularizing international trade more specifically through negotiating the decrease and finally elimination of barriers to trade among countries and try to make smoothly the working of the rules and principles governing the international trade e.g. tariffs, subsidies, product standards, and antidumping etc. It also administers and monitor the execution of the World Trade Organization’s determined guidelines for trade in services, goods as well as intellectual property rights related to international trade. It also monitors and review the member states international trade policies as well as make sure the transparency in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. Likewise, it also solves disputes arising among members related to trade relations or related to the explanation of the provisions of the trade agreements. It also offers services to the governments of the developing states in the fields of capacity building of officers in matters related to international trade. WTO is also doing research on matters related to international trade and its related issues and collect data in order to find better solutions of the problems and obstacles in regularization of international trade. It is also trying to bring into the organization the 29 states who are yet not members of the organization aimed to assist and regulate their international trade according to the international standard.
One of the main barriers in way to international trade is disputes between the engaged parties. Since long this was a very critical issue limiting the trade among states. The WTO is playing very good and instrumental role in the solution of trade related disputes. Since the establishment of WTO in 1995 over 400 disputes related to trade have been brought by its member countries to WTO. The increasing number of bringing trade related disputes to WTO is showing the faith of member countries in the organization. Close trade relations have massive advantages but also create disputes and disagreements. With the increase of international trade, the possibility of its related disputes also increases. Previously, such problems and disagreements have caused in severe disputes. But at present, in the era of WTO the international trade related disputes are decreased because the member states have now dispute’s solution platform, and they are turning to the World Trade Organization to solve their trade related disagreements and disputes. Before the World War Second, there was not any such international organization or forum which could facilitate international trade and its related affairs, and there was also noany legal framework for solving trade related disputes among states of the word.
One of The World Trade Organization’s guiding principal is to continue the open boundaries for trade, ensure the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status among member countries and stop discriminatory behaviour of members towards other member(s) and bring transparency in doing international trade. It is also assisting counties to open their indigenous markets to global trade, with justified exemptions or with suitable flexibilities, promote and support to durable growth, reduce trade deficit, decrease poverty, and promote economic stability. It is also working to integrate different international trade policies and principles. The member countries of WTO are also under the compulsion to bring their trade related disputes to this organization and avoid unilateral actions. WTO is the central pillar of the current international trade system.
Russia and France to strengthen economic cooperation
On April 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin held videoconference with leaders of several French companies-members of the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI France-Russia) to discuss some aspects of Russian-French trade, economic and investment cooperation, including the implementation of large joint projects as well as the prospects for collaborative work.
Putin noted that the Economic Council of the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry is still operational in spite of difficulties, and the late April meeting was the fourth time since 2016. From the historical records, France has been and remains a key economic partner for Russia, holding a high but not sufficiently high, 6th place among EU countries in the amount of accumulated investment in the Russian economy and 5th place in the volume of trade.
Despite a certain decline in mutual trade in 2020 (it went down by 14 percent compared to 2019) the ultimate figure is quite acceptable at $13 billion. French investment in Russia is hovering around $17 billion, while Russian investment in France is $3 billion.
Over 500 companies with French capital are operating in various sectors of the Russian economy. French business features especially prominently in the Russian fuel and energy complex, automobile manufacturing and, of course, the food industry. “It could have been more if the French regulatory and state authorities treated Russian businesses as Russia is treating French businesses. We appreciate that in a difficult economic environment, French companies operating in Russia have not reduced their activity,” Putin pointed out.
The Russian Government established the Foreign Investment Advisory Council, which includes six French companies. Further, there is an opportunity to discuss specific issues related to the economic and investment climate in Russia, and that opportunity is traditionally provided at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, which will be held on June 2-5.
French companies are involved in the implementation of globally famous landmark projects, such as the construction of the Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 facilities and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. This, Putin regrettably said “We are aware of and regret the amount of political speculation concerning the latter. I would like to point out once again that it is a purely economic project, it has nothing to do with present-day political considerations.”
Russia intends to increase assistance to the development of science and technology. Funds will be directed primarily to innovation sectors such as pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, nuclear and renewable energy, and the utilisation of carbon emissions.
“We are interested in involving foreign companies that would like to invest in Russia and in projects we consider high priority. In order to do this, we will continue to use preferential investment regimes and execute special investment contracts, as you know. A lot of French companies successfully use these tools on the Russian market. For example, more than one third of 45 special investment contracts have been signed with European, including French, partners,” he explained during the meeting.
He also mentioned continuous efforts to attract foreign companies to localise their production to state purchases and to implementing the National Development Projects, as well as existing opportunities for French businesses in special economic zones. Today there are 38 such zones created throughout the Russian Federation.
Russia pays particular attention to attracting high-quality foreign specialists. Their employment is being fast-tracked, and their families can now obtain indefinite residence permits. There is a plan to launch a special programme of ‘golden visas’ whereby to issue a residence permit in exchange for investment in the real economy, a practice is used in many other countries.
Taking his turn, Co-Chair of the CCI France-Russian Economic Council, Gennady Timchenko, noted that the pandemic has changed the world, people and business, and that French companies in Russia are responsible employers and socially responsible members of Russian society.
Despite the crisis and the geopolitical situation, a number of French companies have launched production in 2020–2021. Companies such as Saint-Gobain and Danone have renewed their investments. French companies have increased their export of products manufactured in Russia; they are investing in priority sectors of the Russian economy. For example, this year the French company Lidea is launching a plant called Tanais to produce seeds. Russia is dependent on the import of 30 to 60 percent of these seeds, according to various estimates.
Despite the current geopolitical conditions and information field, there are important signals for French business and the Russian side to strengthen economic cooperation, attract investment, and create partnerships on a new mutually beneficial basis.
Co-Chair of the CCI France-Russian Economic Council, Patrick Pouyanne, noted that the meeting has become an excellent tradition, the presence of 17 CEOs and deputy CEOs of French companies shows the importance of these joint meetings, and further reflect the deep interest of French business in Russia.
In addition, Patrick Pouyanne further offered some insights into Russia-French cooperation. By 2020, twenty members of the Economic Council invested a total of 1.65 trillion rubles, supporting 170,000 jobs. These companies have operated in Russia for decades and continue investing in the Russian economy despite the sanctions and the epidemic. These companies help France maintain its status as the second largest investor in Russia. In 2020, France invested over $1 billion in Russia despite the economic difficulties caused by the pandemic.
Concluding his remarks, Patrick Pouyanne stressed that the economic operators believe everyone will benefit if Russia, France and all of Europe are not divided or isolated. This is the challenge today. Indeed, diplomacy has to continue playing an important role in settling differences, and businesses are convinced that meetings like this create bridges between Russia and France to strengthen investment and economic cooperation.
Iran’s Economic Diplomacy through CPEC
U.S. sanctions against Iran are characterized by strategic flexibility and adaptability. They are designed to have maximum negative and deterrent effect on Iran’s military, economic and diplomatic growth. Tehran is exploring ways to counter these sanctions most probably by economic engagements with the regional countries. Iran’s perception of CPEC lends some credit to this argument.
Since the initiation of CPEC, the regional perception has already started to change as many countries have begun to see the project within the domain of their national interests. Iran has expressed its long-standing interests to join the CPEC viewing the corridor as a cornerstone for the country economic prosperity and regional connectivity.
Iran solely focuses more on the economic aspect of CPEC. Regional connectivity through CPEC can boost Iran’s stake in the global output. In 2015, on the sidelines of the United Nation General Assembly (UNGA) address, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani expressed a desire to be the part of CPEC. He emphasized the importance of connectivity projects for the region. Iran’s initial reluctance to CPEC was transformative in nature and heavily came down with the unfolding of new geoeconomic realities.
Iran’s inclination for the CPEC project even becomes the part of official discourse. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan Mehdi Monardost showed keen interest to participate in the CPEC and named it as one of the greatest projects in the history of the region. He envisioned a great boost to bilateral trade between Pakistan and Iran under the framework of this regional connectivity corridor. In 2017, Iran’s economy minister Ali Tayyebnia participated in the New Silk Road summit. He praised the New Silk Road concept for regional connectivity.
Iran’s economy is already clutched due to the international sanctions invoked by the Trump administration after pulling back from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018.Downplaying the perception of geopolitical competition between Gwadar and Chabahar, Iran higher officials negated the impression of competition falsely exaggerated by International and India media and insisted on the complementary nature of two ports.
In 2016,Iran and India signed an agreement for the development of Chabahar port and it was view as the counterweight to Gwadar port. Without explicitly mentioning India by name, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan Syed Mohammad Ali Hoseeni defended the decision of his country to drop out India from the project in Chabahar by stating “when some foreign governments found reluctant in their relations with Iran and need other’s permission for even their normal interactions, for sure they would not be capable of planning and implementing such long-term cooperation contracts”.
The same rhetoric appears in the views of Chinese leadership. Brushing aside the allegations of Iran’s perceived resistance to CPEC and Gwadar port, Iran’s foreign minister Jawad Zarif dismissed the allegations and supported growth and development anywhere in Pakistan.
Chabahar is often seen as a rival to Gwadar port. However, Indian discourse has got an altogether different lease of life in the media compared to the Iranian one. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan Mehdi honardoost utterly disregarded the narrative of competition of two ports. He invited both Pakistan and China to closely work in Chabahar port.
China considers Iran as an important country for its energy security, BRI and in the larger context of global competition with USA. China dual role both in Gwadar and Chabahar, according to the analysts, will likely reduce the impression of competition between two ports. Chinese stance on the Chabahar port also complement the Iran’s position on Chabahar. Chinese premier Le Keqiang rejected the notion that Chabahar port is in competition with the Gwadar. He is convinced with the idea that both ports have the potential to complement each other.
Tehran global status goes upward with the emerging financial and diplomatic backing of China. Beijing openly backs Tehran in the face of U.S. might. On March 26, 2021, China and Iran signed an agreement expressing a desire to increase cooperation and trade relations over the next 25 years. Wang Yi, Chinese foreign minister, said that USA should rescind the sanctions against Iran. The 25 years deal is considered as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to Tehran Times analysts Peyman Hassani and Ammar Hossein Arabpour, this deal is considered a relief to Iran’s gas and oil sector against USA sanctions.
USA sanctions forcefully bar the countries from purchasing oil from Iran. The US Department of Defense’s report notes that China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) focus on pipelines and port construction. Pakistan’s reluctance to follow the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline which is stalled due to American pressure can be reviewed, too much sigh of relief for Tehran’s energy export.
Triangular relations of China, Pakistan and Iran will likely put Iran on the strong footing. Richard Caplan, a professor of international relations at the university of Oxford, notes, “The agreement which predates Biden, undercuts U.S. efforts to isolate Iran economically and, to some extent, diplomatically.
Diplomatic and economic isolation remain at the center of Iran’s foreign policy under the severe U.S. sanctions. Iran’s perceptions of CPEC revolves around the same fact that through regional engagements under CPEC and BRI, it can tackle its global problems to some extent.
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