Leaders of Tuaregs in northern Mali have formed a new group under presidency of Mohamed Ag Intalla which they say will aim to negotiate with the Malian government, as questions linger over the future of the Kidal region.
In a statement announcing the launch of the High Council for the Azawad, organizers said they are not seeking independence from Mali and instead want dialogue. But the new body appears to be led by several of the same Tuareg dignitaries who earlier backed the National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad, or NMLA, a rebel group which invaded northern Mali last year and declared independence.
The French have since succeeded in liberating all three provincial capitals in the north from extremists. However, they were only able to hand back control to the Malian army of two of the three – the cities of Timbuktu and Gao. French Special Forces are based at the Kidal airport, but they do not control the town, where roadblocks are manned by NMLA fighters. Kidal is now ruled by the Tuaregs, who have refused to allow Mali’s military to return, accusing the army of systematically targeting the lighter-skinned ethnic groups in the north.
In the first decade of May, the spokesman for the Malian military confirmed that the army is preparing for an assault on Kidal, the last rebel-held town in northern Mali. Lt. Colonel Souleymane Maiga refused to give a timeline, saying only that preparations for the deployment are “in an advanced stage”. Kidal is currently controlled by Tuareg separatists from the NMLA rebel group.
In opinion of Da Vinci AG, the new Tuareg’s group is an attempt to create a new appellation that is not tainted by the NMLA’s fight for independence but that consists of repositioned MNLA’s leaders. Mohammad Ag Intalla in January 2013 was a member Of the State of Azawad Transitional Council, responsible for Social Cohesion and National Reconciliation. All members of Council belonged to MNLA. Analysts believe, he could be a relative to the chief of the Ifoghas, the dominant ‘noble’ Touareg tribe in the far north east of Mali.
Intalla declined to provide the names of other Tuaregs who belong to the council, but a local official who had been briefed on the membership of the group said that the new body consists of the same people who were in the NMLA. That means that after defeat rebels are trying to maintain their positions that will allow them to participate in negotiations in Malian government and save political influence in the region. Moreover only rebranding of MNLA could save its legal status and deny any links with radical Islamists in the eyes of Bamako and Paris. Obviously, the group changes strategy, trying to keep distance from the policy of independence of Azavad. The statement of the High Council notes that they are a peaceful movement that does not call for independence for part of northern Mali and is against the whole idea of partition.
Such position could be a present for Algerian government, that views strong and unified Touareg movements in the Sahel as a clear and present danger to the unity of Algeria and an impetus for the long-neglected Algerian Touareg to demand local rule in the Ahaggar. Algerian authorities perceived MNLA success as a threat to the central government fifty-year campaign of ”destruction for assimilation” that targeted the Touareg’s ancestral land.
Those who supported independence during the conflict and more radical in their views than MNLA are themselves fragmented into many fronts and groups defined by traditional tribal and family lines spread across an enormous territory which will take a great deal of inner negotiations and give-and-takes to maintain a unified front.
In Da Vinci AG say, the new group has focused on the development of Tuareg’s self-government in north Mali instead of independence claims. And it should be free of any accusations in connections with radical islamists forces. At the same time we should underline, that Tuareg’s elites consist of tribe’s and clan’s leaders. So it is impossible to expect appearance of new faces there.
This may be an intermediate strategy that will enable the long-term set of de-facto Tuareg governance and to form conditions for changing the idea of independence movement for real governance in legal sheet. Kidal, unlike Gao and Timbuktu, actually has a Tuareg majority, and the MNLA is relatively popular there. After the extremist Ansar Dine rebels fled from Kidal, the MNLA welcomed the foreign troops, cooperating with the soldiers from France and Chad.
In Kidal just announced that they had appointed their own governor, a position outside the framework of the Malian state, indicating that they were going ahead with plans to create their own administration.
The MNLA now also operates a checkpoint in Anefis, on the border of Kidal and Gao regions, and has defended itself against other rebel groups in the surrounding desert as well as in the town of In Khalil on the border of Mali and Algeria. In such way tribal warlords could prove that they are still part of negotiations and Bamako can give them responsibility of control the region.
Because the idea of negotiating with Tuareg leaders remains deeply unpopular in the south, in Da Vinci Analytic Group say that scenario of offensive on Kidal is highly probable. But such offensive is impossible by Malian forces alone without support of French troops. However it seems to be, that Paris looks at MNLA as on partners in peacekeeping process in Mali. Such strategy was underlined in Da Vinci AG’s previous breaking reports on Malian conflict. So analysts think that unlikely the French forces will participate in such operation.
However in the case of Malian troops enter Kidal, the negotiations with the Tuareg’s factions will reach an impasse and the conflict will be frozen.
Experts think that if Paris will continue to insist on MNLA or High Council for the Azawad participation in dialog and convince Malian authority to enlarge the political integration of Tuaregs in Northern Mali, the possibility of stabilization of situation in the region is very high.Activation of attacks by militants in the past three months indicate that to date they have regrouped their forces on the territory of contiguous states and established logistic base for the sabotage operations in northern Mali. So such relocation has the potential to further destabilize the conflict in Western Sahara.
Ethiopia and Russia Need to Catch Up
“There is a need to catch up. We agreed to hold meetings regularly,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a media conference after diplomatic talks with his counterpart, Gedu Andargachew in Moscow. According to official reports, Lavrov and Andargachew held wide-ranging talks that were constructive and substantive, and focused on broadening cooperation between Russia and Ethiopia.
Ethiopia is one of Russia’s main partners in Africa. Both countries are tied by years of solidarity with the African countries in their fight for independence and decolonization. The creation of the African Union headquartered in the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, was the culmination of the decolonization processes in Africa.
Throughout their partnership, they have gained extensive experience in mutually beneficial cooperation that meets the interests of both countries in various areas. As a result, Lavrov said they both agreed to stimulate the work of the joint economic commission and to encourage it to implement joint investment projects across a variety of fields, including energy, such as hydrocarbon energy, hydroelectric energy and nuclear energy.
They further noted the importance and interest of companies such as Rosatom, Inter RAO, GPB Global Resources, Russian Railways, KAMAZ and UAZ in working in Ethiopia.
There is a potential for cooperation between Russia and Ethiopia in science and education. Russia pledged to support biological research under the Joint Russian-Ethiopian Biological Expedition, which has been operating there for more 30 years.
Many Ethiopian students study at Russian universities, including civilian universities and those operated by the Defence Ministry and the Interior Ministry. Russia will expand this practice. And at the request from the Ethiopian government, Moscow will conduct two specialized courses for Ethiopian diplomats at the Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy next year.
With regard to other promising areas of interaction, which has a rich history, include military-technical and military cooperation. Ethiopian Minister of National Defence, Aisha Mussa, took part in the talks as part of the delegation. Discussions here was about agreeing on additional regulatory documents which will allow more effectively to promote cooperation in supplying military equipment and in other areas.
Lavrov and Andargachew exchanged views on regional and global questions. “We are on the same page on most issues, consistently advocate for strengthening fair and democratic principles of international relations, and searching for collective answers to large-scale challenges and threats, and respecting the right of each nation to independently determine its future,” top Russian diplomat said.
With regard to the African countries and the African continent, Lavrov and Andargachew strongly support the idea that Africans should have the decisive role in deciding on the paths to resolve African problems. There is no alternative to resolving these crises, or crises in any other part of the world, through peaceful political means, while relying on an inclusive national dialogue. The situation in Africa and the goals that need to be vigorously addressed in order to overcome several crises and conflicts, primarily, on the Horn of Africa, South Sudan and Somalia.
Africans Must Focus on What Unites Them Not What Separates Them
The majority of South Africans are appalled at the attacks on African migrants and refugees in the country by South Africans, said its Finance Minister Tito Mboweni at the opening plenary of the World Economic Forum on Africa.
“We welcome all Africans who have come to this conference; we welcome all Africans who live in South Africa. We are all Africans. We need to tell our people that what they are doing is wrong. These artificial barriers we have created and the hatred among ourselves must really become a thing of the past,” he said.
Responding to a question about the African Continental Free Trade Area, Mboweni said if Africa wants the free movement of goods, it also needs to ensure the free movement of people. “If free movement is supposed to happen, one cannot be in a position where you allow this person and not the other.”
Mboweni was standing in for Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, who was at Parliament to address protestors demanding action from the government on violence against women. Elsie Kanza, Head of Africa at the World Economic Forum, said that addressing systemic violence against women is a top priority for the meeting and she urged all leaders to act against the problem.
Amina Mohammed, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, said leaders at all levels, not just at the political level, must “dig deep to bring back social cohesion. We need to look at what binds us and not what separates us.”
Speaking on the issue of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Mohammed said that, while advances in technology are exciting, “the picture has shadows as well as light.”
Mohammed said technology is moving faster than the world’s ability to manage its impact and it is adding to the uncertainty of a world already unsettled by challenges such as climate change. “If governments cannot proactively manage the impacts, it will make our growth less inclusive with severe security implications.” Partnerships will be critical in addressing the challenges emerging from this new world.
Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, said the rapid pace of technology requires renewed frameworks for cooperation to be developed to deliver an inclusive and sustainable future for Africa.
“Africa cannot afford to be left behind. The Fourth Industrial Revolution can solve many of the issues that came with the first, second and third industrial revolutions. It is a catalyst for Africa to leapfrog into the 21st century,” said Schwab.
Cyril M. Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, in remarks read on his behalf by Mboweni, said Africa, along with the rest of the world, is dealing with the same question: how to harness the potential of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in pursuit of development and economic growth. “And importantly, how to ensure that, as we take this quantum leap into the future, we do not leave society’s most marginalized behind.”
“Disruptive trends and technologies are changing the way we live, the way we work and do business, and the way we govern. We must respond with agility to craft a roadmap for navigating this new environment. We must ensure that our citizens are prepared, and, if necessary, that they are shielded from any adverse consequences. Our response must be collaborative, multisectoral and inclusive,” said Ramaphosa.
Ramaphosa said South Africa is not only working with its neighbours to develop a continental strategy led by the African Telecommunications Union, but it has also established a Presidential Commission on the Fourth Industrial Revolution to position the country as a competitive global player in this new space.
Three new Forum initiatives were also announced at the plenary session: platforms dealing with youth and employment, risk resilience and e-commerce.
Youth and Women Key to Making This Africa’s Century
Africa can achieve a step change in economic growth by addressing shortfalls in governance, reducing barriers to trade and – crucially – embracing the potential of its youth and women, heads of state from across the continent told the World Economic Forum on Africa today.
“We have the wherewithal to be able to reach for higher levels of growth,” said Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa. “The future is great. It looks very bright for the African continent. If there ever was a time when Africa definitely could be said to be on the rise, this is the time.”
Optimism about intra-African trade is on the rise following the creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which includes nearly every country on the continent.
However, Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Eric Keabetswe Masisi warned that leaders must now focus on the practicalities of easing cross-border commerce. “We need to remove all the barriers and put in the enablers to facilitate free trade, beginning in our neighbourhood,” he said.
If countries deliver on this, Ramaphosa said, AfCFTA could be “the greatest opportunity for economies on the continent to generate growth through trade.”
In a world where Europe faces shrinking workforces due to ageing and much of Asia soon will, Africa’s fast-growing population also offers a “demographic dividend” to drive future growth. Crowds of young Africans represent a huge resource to man the factories and service industries of the future, as well as a big potential market.
But that demographic dividend will only pay out if the young can find jobs – and that, in turn, will depend on skilling up the young.
“We need a rebirth of education for the 21st century,” said Amina Mohammed, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations.
At the same time, women must be brought into the fold to a much greater extent, requiring a root-and-branch fight against gender discrimination. This must include opening up previously restricted areas of education such as science to women, said Ethiopian President Sahlework Zewde.
“The important thing is to invest in our young people … and empower women,” said Mandulo Ambrose Dlamini, Prime Minister of Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland. “I learnt that if you include women in leadership in your team, the level of intelligence increases.”
Hopes for Africa’s economy have been raised before. The continent enjoyed boom times prior to the financial crash of 2008, thanks to a commodities “super cycle” that saw sustained high prices for its raw materials. But prices for Africa’s minerals are well down on those heady days, while few countries have yet to escape the extractive model by managing to add value to their commodities. Now, however, there is a growing determination to achieve this, with Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Namibia’s President Hage Geingob both calling for value to be added to their country’s minerals before they are exported.
“The problem of investors or foreigners who come to Africa is that they come on their own terms. From now on, Africa must tell investors when they come, they come on our terms,” said Geingob. “Why should my diamonds go out in raw form?”
Mnangagwa, who said he is striving to rebuild Zimbabwe’s “collapsed economy”, said it is vital to understand the needs of the private sector for investment in technology that could add value locally.
The over-arching requirement is for African countries to reassure their own populations and investors that they can offer a framework for stable growth, said Seychelles President Danny Faure. “We need to deepen the reform that we are doing to better reflect the need for Africa have what is necessary in terms of good governance, transparency, accountability and the rule of law,” he said.
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