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This Is Our Country, President Karzai

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Dilemma between Kabul and Washington: Meticulous dialogue moves on between President Karzai and President Obama over the authorization of the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) and Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).

Progress has yet to be made because of the divergence among the Karzai led government and the government led by the Obama administration. Again, it is Afghanistan verses the United States instead of Afghanistan working with the United States.

President Karzai agrees in broad-spectrum to approve both SPA and SOFA but he stresses unbelievable preconditions including; political stability, peace building and sustainable economic developments and sustainable growth of economic infrastructures in order to even retain national interest of Afghanistan in either agreement. President Karzai seems to believe he has 2 full years to negotiate all these points and the major points of a myriad of other issues. “President Karzai, this is our country. And you are losing it because you are more interested in yourself than the interest of the people of Afghanistan.”

President Karzai’s wide-ranging difficulties to endorse these agreements are not to preserve national interests of Afghanistan but to hoard his personal wellbeing. He figures that if US forces want to remain in Afghanistan and establish permanent bases in the country they will need to flow capital and funds as it was promised in Tokyo conference. The international community will do this anyway if we are just honest with everyone. This is to assist Afghanistan in the aftermath of a NATO complete withdrawal in 2014. The equivalent of 16 billion USD would be pumped rapidly into Afghanistan. Some NATO forces will remain in the country to maintain economic and political and security stability.

What President Karzai expects is that to make the international communities, led by US, give as much as possible for as long as possible.  Karzai will then be able to siphon the capital to pockets of his own. Then, either he or someone from his family or inner circle will remain in power. That is why he shows disparity in the name of defending national interests of Afghanistan. “This is our country, President Karzai.”

This time Karzai’s childish negotiations seem unlikely to succeed. The international community, led by the US, is fed up with his notions. So that same international community decided not to consider him as viable figure anymore.  He never brags about Afghan military capabilities. He never cheers on the police for their progress. He never attempts to have real and improved justice. He never tells the Afghan people the progress in health/medical care, housing, or jobs that was caused clearly by the Coalition being in Afghanistan. Instead, persisting corruptions, nepotism, injustice and missed capacity building opportunities has led his administration to extraordinary conditional requirements placed on us by the helpful Coalition for any forthcoming negotiations. This is brazen, erratic and stupid.

There is no reason to make enemies out of people that have helped Afghanistan so much. In order to keep hold of the flow of funds to Afghanistan President Karzai ought to agree with the US to set up international tribunal to keep an eye on spending of all aid. Secondly, he should approve the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) and set up a real time line for presidential elections and approve the SPA. “President Karzai, this is our country, not just yours for your convenience.”

President Karzai’s strain on his personal intuitions in the label of national interests should be retained because of his experience. This will allow the US and its close allies to keep up with their preparations and plans in Afghanistan. Conditionality on all aid will be now  necessary.  Otherwise, Afghanistan will not get any aid in relation to sustainable economic developments, political and security stability and so forth.

The US will stay in Afghanistan since the US needs to hang about in the country in order to build up Strategic Global Positioning (SGP). Therefore, they enjoy sustainable economic developments, political stability adequacy of security, in order to make Afghanistan another Qatar, Kuwait or Oman. President Karzai needs to abide by what US yearns for otherwise insurgents will take over within six months. There will be a gigantic scuffle flanked by Afghan lawmakers and executive branch of the government. This will lead to the self-destruction of the Afghanistan from inside.  Pakistan and Iran they will try to expand territories. Pakistan will take over the eastern Afghanistan and the western part of the country would be over-taken by Iran. They will deal among each other later on to avoid forth coming quarrels. “President Karzai, this is our country. Do you understand?”

Hopefully, this is what President Barak Hussein Obama will openly explain to President Karzai during his next visit to White house, which will happen in up-coming weeks. In order to keep Afghanistan on its right track and strengthen meaningful relations between Kabul and Washington, President Obama will enlighten President Karzai to resign before elections and he will be praised for his heroic act and scores of books would be written about him. Many stories will be written of his greatness for these last years and his whole life. He will be a legend in Afghan history forever. If Karzai walks out in order to delude US and the rest of the international community the entire relationship between US, the IC and Afghanistan’s people will be destroyed. Negotiations for and about the Afghan people are good. Negotiations for Karzai’s benefits are low rent second class and ghetto negotiations.

Here is a likely scenario the President is planning.  Karzai will try to make a secret deal with Fahim Khan to maintain his political power and his personal economic wellbeing. Qasim Fahim will obtain the administration as President by Karzai resigning.  Fahim secretly promises to take care and protect Karzai. In the result, lawmakers will stumble on a method to systematize a decree to endorse Fahim for the next term. Subsequently, Qasim Fahim Khan will eliminate all requirements for elections and he will call for a new set up occasion for the elections. Or Fahim Khan will call for a manner similar to referendum to stay in power for the next five years. If Karzai will not get agreement with Fahim then Fahim will get under the weather and Karzai will select someone else as a new vice-president in anticipation of elections to be held. Otherwise or also there will be no fair elections because Karzai could not guarantee someone would win that would protect him. “Mr President, this is our country. You are only looking out for yourself not the Afghan people.”

It seems like this era and the game is over for President Karzai. The US will not snuggle up with him. The US will undertake to find out a best partner for the wellbeing of America and Afghanistan as partners for the future. If this corrupt, second rate ghetto government mentality continues the US and all countries will say good ridden to Afghanistan and we will again be alone at this crucial moment. The world is looking for Afghanistan to say Thank You in some way for assisting these past 10 years for all our growth in so many areas. The world is not looking for Afghanistan to spit in the eye of those who have helped. This continuous corrupt government is killing its own people because of ignorance of the laws of life.

Karzai continues in a dreamland of running to radical Islam countries for help. The conditionality they put on him is to swear off all the countries that have and will help.  You are killing us President Karzai as sure as if you held a gun to our heads. Sharing the future with our international friends is a good thing. They don’t treat us like slime and give no services for our hard work. They treat us like real people like the rest of the world. They don’t treat us like poor slaves in a broken governmental system. Our people are proud. We have accomplished many things. You don’t give us credit for anything. “This is our country, President Karzai. And we want it back. And we want you out.”

Ajmal Sohail is Co-founder and Co-president of Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany and he is National Security and counter terrorism analyst. He is active member of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)as well.

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South Asia

India’s Unclear Neighbourhood Policy: How to Overcome ?

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India has witnessed multiple trends with regards to its relations with its neighbours at a time vaccine diplomacy is gaining prominence and Beijing increasing the pace towards becoming an Asian superpower, whereby making these reasons valid for New Delhi to have a clear foreign policy with respect to its neighbourhood.

Introduction

The Covid Pandemic has led to increased uncertainty in the global order where it comes to power dynamics, role of international organisations. New Delhi has tried to leave no stone unturned when it comes to dealing with its immediate neighbours.  It has distributed medical aid and vaccines to smaller countries to enhance its image abroad at a time it has witnessed conflicts with China and a change in government in Myanmar. These developments make it imperative for New Delhi to increase its focus on regionalism and further international engagement where this opportunity could be used tactically amidst a pandemic by using economic and healthcare aid.

According to Dr. Arvind Gupta, New Delhi has to deal with threats coming from multiple fronts and different tactics where it is essential for New Delhi to save energy using soft means rather than coercive measures.. India under Vaccine Maitri has supplied many of COVAXIN doses to Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka where many have appreciated this move. The urgency of ensuring humanitarian aid during these periods of unprecedented uncertainty are essential in PM Modi’s Security and Growth For All ( SAGAR) initiative, which focusses on initiating inclusive growth as well as cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region.

This pandemic witnessed various threats coming in India’s neighbourhood through multiple dimensions which include maritime, land, cyber as well as air threats where adversaries are using these to put pressure on New Delhi to settle land as well as marine disputes as per their terms.  These encirclement strategies have made it necessary for India to open up various options such as holding maritime joint exercises with like-minded countries, developing partnerships, providing economic as well as healthcare support to weaker countries plus having a clear insight about changing global dynamics and acting as per them.

This piece will discuss about various changing tactics, pros and cons which India has with respect to developing its national security vis-à-vis its neighbourhood, why should it prioritise its neighbourhood at the first place?

Background

India’s Neighbourhood is filled with many complexities and a lot of suspicion amongst countries, some viewing India because of its size and geography plus economic clout as a bully where it is wanting to dominate in the region putting others aside. This led to New Delhi play an increased role in nudging ties first with its neighbours with whom it had multiple conflicts as well as misunderstandings leading to the latter viewing Beijing as a good alternative in order to keep India under check.

Ever since PM Modi has taken charge at 7 RCR, India’s Neighbourhood First Policy has been followed increasingly to develop relations, to enhance understandings and ensure mutual cooperation as well as benefit with its neighbours. The relations with Islamabad have not seen so much improvement as compared to other leaders in the past. Even though former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was invited for PM Modi’s 1st Swearing In ceremony in 2014, terrorist activities have never stopped which could be seen through Pathankot, Uri and Pulwama terror attacks which killed many of the Indian soldiers. Even though surgical strikes were conducted on terror camps in retaliation to these bombardments, Islamabad has not changed its heart at all about its security or regional demands. New strategies and friendships are being developed where Beijing has played a major role in controlling power dynamics.

The Belt and Road initiative, first time mentioned during President Xi’s 2013 speech in Kazakhstan, then officially in 2015,  lays emphasis of achieving a Chinese Dream of bringing countries under one umbrella, ensuring their security, providing them with infrastructure projects such as ports, railways, pipelines, highways etc. The main bottleneck is the China Pakistan Economic Corridor when it comes to India’s security threats, passing through disputed boundaries of Gilgit and Baltistan in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir till Gwadar. Other projects have been initiated in Chittagong, Hambantota, Gwadar , Kyapkyou. These projects form a String Of Pearls in the Indo Pacific where New Delhi is being balanced against through economic plus development incentives being given to the member countries under the project. That’s why in the recent past, New Delhi is asserting its influence in the region, looking at new dimensional threats where Beijing’s threats in the maritime domain in the islands in East as well as South China seas are not being seen favourably in many countries such as ASEAN, US, Australia and Japan which is giving India an opportunity to look towards countries with a common threat. Amidst this great power struggle between Washington and Beijing, New Delhi is stuck between a rock and hard place i.e., having a clear and strong foreign policy with its neighbours.

In this region, India has a sole threat which is mainly Beijing where the latter has achieved prowess technologically and militarily where New Delhi lags behind the latter twenty fold. So, there is a need for improvising military technology, increase economic activities with countries, reduce dependence on foreign aid, ensure self-reliance.

Situation

South Asia is backward when it comes to economic development, human development and is a home to majority of the world’s population which lives below poverty line. The colonial rule has left a never-ending impact on divisions based on communal, linguistic and ethnic grounds. Even, in terms of infrastructure and connectivity, New Delhi lags behind Beijing significantly in the neighbourhood because the latter is at an edge when it comes to bringing countries under the same umbrella. Due to these, many initiatives have been taken up by New Delhi on developing infrastructure, providing humanitarian aid to needy countries.

There have been numerous efforts made by India with respect to reaching out to the Neighbours in 2020 through setting up of the SAARC Covid Fund where many Neighbourhood countries such as Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka gave contributions to ensure cooperation, joint scientific research, sharing information, healthcare kits where the countries contributed USD $ 18 million jointly towards this fund where New Delhi made an initial offer of USD $ 10 million.

New Delhi has even mustered ties with the Association of Southeast Asian countries during the pandemic under its Act East Policy where proper connectivity through the Northeast could be useful in easing movement of goods but currently, the infrastructure in Northeast needs more improvement where issues such as unemployment, poor connectivity are prevalent whereby disconnecting it from rest of the other states. This region could play an important role in linking Bangladesh, Myanmar to New Delhi along with the proposed India-Thailand –Myanmar Trilateral Corridor. Focus has also been laid to develop inland waterways, rail links and pipelines to ease connections between countries, making trade free and more efficient.

India is focussing on developing the Sittwe and Paletwa ports in Myanmar under the Kaladan Development Corridor, at the cost of INR 517.9 Crore in order to provide an alternative e route beneficial for the Northeast for getting shipping access

Summing Up

 These above developments and power display by a strong adversary, give good reasons for New Delhi to adopt collective security mechanisms through QUAD, SIMBEX and JIMEX with a common perception of having safe and open waters through abiding to the UNCLOS which China isn’t showing too much interest in, seen through surveillance units, artificial islands being set up on disputed territories which countries likewise India are facing in context to territorial sovereignty and integrity. These developments make it important for India to look at strategic threats by coming together with countries based on similar interest’s vis-à-vis Chinese threat.

There is a need for India to develop and harness its strength through connectivity and its self reliance initiative ( Aatmanirbharta ) so that there is no dependence on any foreign power at times of need . Proper coordination between policy makers and government officials could make decision making even easier, which is not there completely because of ideological differences, different ideas which makes it important for the political leadership to coordinate with the military jointly during times of threats on borders. Self-reliance could only come through preparedness and strategy.

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India is in big trouble as UK stands for Kashmiris

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 A London-based law firm has filed an application with British police seeking the arrest of India’s army chief and a senior Indian government official over their alleged roles in war crimes in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Law firm Stoke White said it submitted extensive evidence to the Metropolitan Police’s War Crimes Unit on Tuesday, documenting how Indian forces headed by General Manoj Mukund Naravane and Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah were responsible for the torture, kidnapping and killing of activists, journalists and civilians – particularly Muslim – in the region.

“There is strong reason to believe that Indian authorities are conducting war crimes and other violence against civilians in Jammu and Kashmir,” the report states, referring to the territory in the Himalayan region.

Based on more than 2,000 testimonies taken between 2020 and 2021, the report also accused eight unnamed senior Indian military officials of direct involvement in war crimes and torture in Kashmir.

The law firm’s investigation suggested that the abuse has worsened during the coronavirus pandemic. It also included details about the arrest of Khurram Parvez, the region’s most prominent rights activist, by India’s counterterrorism authorities last year.

“This report is dedicated to the families who have lost loved ones without a trace, and who experience daily threats when trying to attain justice,” Khalil Dewan, author of the report and head of the SWI unit, said in a statement.

“The time has now come for victims to seek justice through other avenues, via a firmer application of international law.”

The request to London police was made under the principle of “universal jurisdiction”, which gives countries the authority to prosecute individuals accused of crimes against humanity committed anywhere in the world.

The international law firm in London said it believes its application is the first time that legal action has been initiated abroad against Indian authorities over alleged war crimes in Kashmir.

Hakan Camuz, director of international law at Stoke White, said he hoped the report would convince British police to open an investigation and ultimately arrest the officials when they set foot in the UK.

Some of the Indian officials have financial assets and other links to Britain.

“We are asking the UK government to do their duty and investigate and arrest them for what they did based on the evidence we supplied to them. We want them to be held accountable,” Camuz said.

The police application was made on behalf of the family of Pakistani prisoner Zia Mustafa, who, Camuz said, was the victim of extrajudicial killing by Indian authorities in 2021, and on behalf of human rights campaigner Muhammad Ahsan Untoo, who was allegedly tortured before his arrest last week.

Tens of thousands of civilians, rebels and government forces have been killed in the past two decades in Kashmir, which is divided between India and Pakistan and claimed by both in its entirety.

Muslim Kashmiris mostly support rebels who want to unite the region, either under Pakistani rule or as an independent country.

Kashmiris and international rights groups have long accused Indian troops of carrying out systematic abuse and arrests of those who oppose rule from New Delhi.

Rights groups have also criticized the conduct of armed groups, accusing them of carrying out human rights violations against civilians.

In 2018, the United Nations human rights chief called for an independent international investigation into reports of rights violations in Kashmir, alleging “chronic impunity for violations committed by security forces”.

India’s government has denied the alleged rights violations and maintains such claims are separatist propaganda meant to demonize Indian troops in the region. It seems, India is in big trouble and may not be able to escape this time. A tough time for Modi-led extremist government and his discriminatory policies. The world opinion about India has been changed completely, and it has been realized that there is no longer a democratic and secular India. India has been hijacked by extremist political parties and heading toward further bias policies. Minorities may suffer further, unless the world exert pressure to rectify the deteriorating human rights records in India.

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S. Jaishankar’s ‘The India Way’, Is it a new vision of foreign policy?

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S. Jaishankar has had an illustrious Foreign Service career holding some of the highest and most prestigious positions such as ambassador to China and the US and as foreign secretary of India. Since 2019 he has served as India’s foreign minister. S. Jaishankar also has a Ph.D. in international relations from JNU and his academic background is reflected in this book.

His main argument is simplistic, yet the issues involved are complex. Jaishankar argues that the world is changing fundamentally, and the international environment is experiencing major shifts in power as well as processes. China is rising and western hegemony is declining. We are moving away from a unipolar system dominated by the US to a multipolar system. Globalization is waning and nationalism and polarization is on the rise (p. 29). The old order is going away but we cannot yet glimpse what the future will look like. This is the uncertain world that Dr. Jaishankar sees.

Dr. Jaishankar also argues that India too has changed, it is more capable and more assertive. The liberalization program that began in 1991 has made the Indian economy vibrant and globally competitive and it is well on track to becoming the third biggest economy in the world, after China and the US.  The war of 1971 that liberated Bangladesh, the liberalization of the economy after 1991, the nuclear tests in 1998 and the nuclear understanding with the US in 2005, Jaishankar argues are landmarks in India’s strategic evolution (p. 4). So given that both India and the system have changed, Jaishankar concludes, so should India’s foreign policy.

But his prescription for India’s foreign policy, in the grand scheme of things, is the same as before – India should remain nonaligned and not join the US in its efforts to contain China. India will try to play with both sides it seems in order to exploit the superpowers and maximize its own interests (p. 9). But he fails to highlight how India can find common ground with China other than to say the two nations must resolve things diplomatically. He also seems to think that the US has infinite tolerance for India’s coyness. In his imagination the US will keep making concessions and India will keep playing hard to get.

Jaishankar has a profound contradiction in his thinking. He argues that the future will be determined by what happens between the US and China. In a way he is postulating a bipolar future to global politics. But he then claims that the world is becoming multipolar and this he claims will increase the contests for regional hegemony. The world cannot be both bipolar and multipolar at the same time.

There is also a blind spot in Jaishankar’s book.  He is apparently unaware of the rise of Hindu nationalism and the demand for a Hindu state that is agitating and polarizing India’s domestic politics. The systematic marginalization and oppression of Muslim minorities at home and the growing awareness overseas of the dangers of Hindutva extremism do not exist in the world that he lives in. He misses all this even as he goes on to invoke the Mahabharata and argue how Krishna’s wisdom and the not so ethical choices during the war between Pandavas and Kauravas should be a guide for how India deals with this uncertain world – by balancing ethics with realism (p. 63). Methinks his little digression in discussing the ancient Hindu epic is more to signal his ideological predilections than to add any insights to understanding the world or India’s place in it.  

One aspect of his work that I found interesting is his awareness of the importance of democracy and pluralism. He states that India’s democracy garners respect and gives India a greater opportunity to be liked and admired by other nations in the world (p. 8). Yet recently when he was asked about the decline of India’s democratic credentials, his response was very defensive, and he showed visible signs of irritation. It is possible that he realizes India is losing ground internationally but is unwilling to acknowledge that his political party is responsible for the deterioration of India’s democracy.

This is also apparent when he talks about the importance of India improving its relations with its immediate neighbors. He calls the strategy as neighborhood first approach (pp. 9-10). What he does not explain is how an Islamophobic India will maintain good relations with Muslim majority neighbors like Bangladesh, Maldives, and Pakistan.

The book is interesting, it has its limitations and both, what is addressed and what is left out, are clearly political choices and provide insights into how New Delhi thinks about foreign policy. So, coming to the question with which we started, does India have a new foreign policy vision? The answer is no. Dr. Jaishankar is right, there is indeed an India way, but it is the same old way, and it entails remaining nonaligned with some minor attitudinal adjustments.  

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