Dilemma between Kabul and Washington: Meticulous dialogue moves on between President Karzai and President Obama over the authorization of the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) and Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).
Progress has yet to be made because of the divergence among the Karzai led government and the government led by the Obama administration. Again, it is Afghanistan verses the United States instead of Afghanistan working with the United States.
President Karzai agrees in broad-spectrum to approve both SPA and SOFA but he stresses unbelievable preconditions including; political stability, peace building and sustainable economic developments and sustainable growth of economic infrastructures in order to even retain national interest of Afghanistan in either agreement. President Karzai seems to believe he has 2 full years to negotiate all these points and the major points of a myriad of other issues. “President Karzai, this is our country. And you are losing it because you are more interested in yourself than the interest of the people of Afghanistan.”
President Karzai’s wide-ranging difficulties to endorse these agreements are not to preserve national interests of Afghanistan but to hoard his personal wellbeing. He figures that if US forces want to remain in Afghanistan and establish permanent bases in the country they will need to flow capital and funds as it was promised in Tokyo conference. The international community will do this anyway if we are just honest with everyone. This is to assist Afghanistan in the aftermath of a NATO complete withdrawal in 2014. The equivalent of 16 billion USD would be pumped rapidly into Afghanistan. Some NATO forces will remain in the country to maintain economic and political and security stability.
What President Karzai expects is that to make the international communities, led by US, give as much as possible for as long as possible. Karzai will then be able to siphon the capital to pockets of his own. Then, either he or someone from his family or inner circle will remain in power. That is why he shows disparity in the name of defending national interests of Afghanistan. “This is our country, President Karzai.”
This time Karzai’s childish negotiations seem unlikely to succeed. The international community, led by the US, is fed up with his notions. So that same international community decided not to consider him as viable figure anymore. He never brags about Afghan military capabilities. He never cheers on the police for their progress. He never attempts to have real and improved justice. He never tells the Afghan people the progress in health/medical care, housing, or jobs that was caused clearly by the Coalition being in Afghanistan. Instead, persisting corruptions, nepotism, injustice and missed capacity building opportunities has led his administration to extraordinary conditional requirements placed on us by the helpful Coalition for any forthcoming negotiations. This is brazen, erratic and stupid.
There is no reason to make enemies out of people that have helped Afghanistan so much. In order to keep hold of the flow of funds to Afghanistan President Karzai ought to agree with the US to set up international tribunal to keep an eye on spending of all aid. Secondly, he should approve the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) and set up a real time line for presidential elections and approve the SPA. “President Karzai, this is our country, not just yours for your convenience.”
President Karzai’s strain on his personal intuitions in the label of national interests should be retained because of his experience. This will allow the US and its close allies to keep up with their preparations and plans in Afghanistan. Conditionality on all aid will be now necessary. Otherwise, Afghanistan will not get any aid in relation to sustainable economic developments, political and security stability and so forth.
The US will stay in Afghanistan since the US needs to hang about in the country in order to build up Strategic Global Positioning (SGP). Therefore, they enjoy sustainable economic developments, political stability adequacy of security, in order to make Afghanistan another Qatar, Kuwait or Oman. President Karzai needs to abide by what US yearns for otherwise insurgents will take over within six months. There will be a gigantic scuffle flanked by Afghan lawmakers and executive branch of the government. This will lead to the self-destruction of the Afghanistan from inside. Pakistan and Iran they will try to expand territories. Pakistan will take over the eastern Afghanistan and the western part of the country would be over-taken by Iran. They will deal among each other later on to avoid forth coming quarrels. “President Karzai, this is our country. Do you understand?”
Hopefully, this is what President Barak Hussein Obama will openly explain to President Karzai during his next visit to White house, which will happen in up-coming weeks. In order to keep Afghanistan on its right track and strengthen meaningful relations between Kabul and Washington, President Obama will enlighten President Karzai to resign before elections and he will be praised for his heroic act and scores of books would be written about him. Many stories will be written of his greatness for these last years and his whole life. He will be a legend in Afghan history forever. If Karzai walks out in order to delude US and the rest of the international community the entire relationship between US, the IC and Afghanistan’s people will be destroyed. Negotiations for and about the Afghan people are good. Negotiations for Karzai’s benefits are low rent second class and ghetto negotiations.
Here is a likely scenario the President is planning. Karzai will try to make a secret deal with Fahim Khan to maintain his political power and his personal economic wellbeing. Qasim Fahim will obtain the administration as President by Karzai resigning. Fahim secretly promises to take care and protect Karzai. In the result, lawmakers will stumble on a method to systematize a decree to endorse Fahim for the next term. Subsequently, Qasim Fahim Khan will eliminate all requirements for elections and he will call for a new set up occasion for the elections. Or Fahim Khan will call for a manner similar to referendum to stay in power for the next five years. If Karzai will not get agreement with Fahim then Fahim will get under the weather and Karzai will select someone else as a new vice-president in anticipation of elections to be held. Otherwise or also there will be no fair elections because Karzai could not guarantee someone would win that would protect him. “Mr President, this is our country. You are only looking out for yourself not the Afghan people.”
It seems like this era and the game is over for President Karzai. The US will not snuggle up with him. The US will undertake to find out a best partner for the wellbeing of America and Afghanistan as partners for the future. If this corrupt, second rate ghetto government mentality continues the US and all countries will say good ridden to Afghanistan and we will again be alone at this crucial moment. The world is looking for Afghanistan to say Thank You in some way for assisting these past 10 years for all our growth in so many areas. The world is not looking for Afghanistan to spit in the eye of those who have helped. This continuous corrupt government is killing its own people because of ignorance of the laws of life.
Karzai continues in a dreamland of running to radical Islam countries for help. The conditionality they put on him is to swear off all the countries that have and will help. You are killing us President Karzai as sure as if you held a gun to our heads. Sharing the future with our international friends is a good thing. They don’t treat us like slime and give no services for our hard work. They treat us like real people like the rest of the world. They don’t treat us like poor slaves in a broken governmental system. Our people are proud. We have accomplished many things. You don’t give us credit for anything. “This is our country, President Karzai. And we want it back. And we want you out.”
Modi-fying Kashmir and Historical Facts
The Modi government on 5th august 2019 revoked two key constitutional provisions — Article 370 and Article 35A — which gave the state of Jammu and Kashmir distinctive rights. India moved around 50 thousand military personnel into the valley to avoid any backlash, which shows that the Indian government is afraid of the repercussions of an illegal act. But these curfews and emergencies are not new for Kashmiris. Kashmiri’s will continue fighting for their land and will never compromise. Kashmir is an 86,000-square mile disputed region that is divided between India, Pakistan and China. Kashmir’s independence struggle has a long history.
Historically Kashmiris have not ruled their own land since their last king Yusaf Shah Chak who was defeated by the Mughals in the 16th century. Chak launched guerrilla attacks against the armies of Mughal king Akbar on November 1586, he was certain that “Independence was just a day away”. Since then it’s been 400 years since Kashmir has passed into the hands of Afghans, Sikhs, the British Great Britain and now Indian rulers after partition. Today, the same kind guerrilla attacks continue against Indian occupational forces, although by a renewed insurgency fueled by modern weapons and communications technology.
Thousands of Kashmiri’s are part of the armed freedom struggle against Indian forces. Now in the shape of the Kashmir freedom movement, it is entirely different from what it was during the early years of partition. Now, the use of social media has changed the dynamics of the freedom movement making it extremely challenging for India to curb the voices of Kashmiris in the present era. Though India always blames Pakistan for supporting freedom fighters and stone pelters it has never really applied an introspective approach to what its armed forces are doing.
As Kashmiris continue to reject India and its democracy the Modi government has locked down almost 90 lakh Kashmiris since 5 august. There is a complete media blackout in Kashmir and still India calls itself a democracy. Such Indian actions to erode the basic fabric of the Kashmir freedom movement will only fuel the struggle for independence even more. There are many people inside India which negate this act of oppression by the Modi Government. Modi’s actions are opposite to democratic values which India claims are reason for its unity.
Several Indian activists have condemned the abrogation of articles 370 and 35 A. Till now 6 petitions have been filed in the Indian supreme court, all of which reflect the pure negation of Mr. Modi’s agenda. Hence, the way India is treating Kashmiris will surely have dire consequences for the state in the future. The country which calls itself the largest democracy is treating Kashmiris worse than animals, a democracy where even cows purportedly enjoy more rights than Kashmiris and Muslims.
In 1947 Kashmiris resisted against Dogra forces and around 2 lakh were killed but the Kashmiris refused to be subdued. After partition on 2 November 1947, Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru had promised a plebiscite in Kashmir saying: “The fate of Jammu and Kashmir is ultimately to be decided by the people. The pledge we have given not only to the people of Kashmir but also to the world. We will not and cannot back out of it.”
But India has still not pulled back its troops since then and has continued to forcefully occupy the region. Pakistan and India have fought a number wars and smaller-scale conflicts in 1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999 due to Kashmir with border skirmishes remaining common even today. India is involved in killing Kashmiris while the world remains in silence. Only a consistent struggle can force India to check its decisions otherwise, India is on its way to change the demography of Kashmir. Modifying the status of Kashmir within the Indian constitution won’t change realities which exist historically. Even today, the whole world acknowledges that Kashmir is an international dispute and not just an internal matter of India. By casting even further light and global attention on this issue through his most recent actions, Mr. Modi has gravely miscalculated the outcome of this move.
Revoking Article 370 A has already stripped Kashmiris of their special rights and now there would be single citizenship for Kashmiris. The Indian flag will be the only flag and article 356 and 360 will be applicable. Minorities will be eligible with a 16 % quota. People from other states will be eligible to buy land in Jammu and Kashmir. Assembly duration of the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir will be for 5 years. All the above developments will further estrange Kashmiris in their own land.
From 1586 till now, the Kashmiris defeated many oppressors and none was able to subdue them. Mr. Modi’s modification of its status will definitely fire back in the coming days as India cannot impose a curfew forever. At least 4,000 people have been detained in Kashmir since August 5 and situation on ground as reported by international media is getting worse than ever. More and more Kashmiri youth will join armed groups and the intensity and number of armed attacks is widely expected surge dramatically. Without a doubt such a dangerous and arrogant decision by the Indian leadership has severely compromised the peace and stability of the entire region.
Kashmir: A Victim of the Influence of Major Powers
India-Pakistan relations are constantly tense and India-Pakistan history is full of struggles and rivalries. The problems between the two countries have emerged on the international scene recently when the Indian state decided to abolish autonomy in Jammu and Kashmir and apply full control of the Indian state over the region. The area is known to be the center of a dispute between India and Pakistan over land claims and border demarcation.
The Indo-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir is classified as one of the most dangerous in the world. India and Pakistan are nuclear states. The Kashmir conflict began in 1947 and did not end today, after Kashmir was a former independent region in the Himalayas. Kashmir lies in a strategic area on the Himalayas, bordered by India, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan; it is a region of cultural diversity and contains the most important Eastern religions such as Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism. The region of Kashmir is one of the most beautiful regions of the world and fertile agricultural land with a lot of natural resources, but the political instability and security has ruined the economic situation and the lack of tourists and investors.
Historically, Kashmir has been a Hindu religion, but the connection between Kashmiri people and Afghan families has led to the spread of Islam. Kashmir was ruled by the Mongols from the 16th to the 18th centuries, after which Kashmir returned to be an independent state. However, strong British influence in that period robbed the sovereignty of that country by selling land and people, who are mostly Muslims, to a Hindu warlord, Gulab Singh, for 7.5 million rupees.
This “contract of sale” was quickly legalized in the Amritsar Treaty. Since then Singh has declared himself “Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir”, and imposed on the local population by force Hindu culture and its religious principles. He burned mosques and overthrew anyone who begged himself to oppose his rule and stand up to Hindu principles. After Maharaja “Gulab Singh” took over the rule of Jammu and Kashmir Maharaja “Hari Singh”, who completed the same path of his predecessor in a land where the number of Muslims at the time 94%.
The severe repression of the people of Jammu and Kashmir in cooperation with the British prompted them to raise their voice in the face of the Maharaja and his allies in 1931. On 25 October 1947, after violent confrontations between the Maharaja and the population, the Kashmiri people won and the Maharaja was expelled. Maharaja sought support from India after Britain stopped supporting him.
The British colonial policy divided the area there on a religious basis. Most of the Muslim lands have been annexed to Pakistan, and the Hindu-majority lands have been annexed to India. In 1947, Indian military forces returned to Kashmir by force against weak Kashmiri resistance and little support from Pakistanis.
At that time, Pakistan began to support the rebels and the separatists from India, which led India to complain to the Security Council accusing Pakistan of supporting the rebels in Kashmir. Pakistan has responded that India is trying to promise Kashmir sovereignty, but it is working to annex Kashmir and bring Maharaja Hari Singh back to power. In 1948, the Security Council sought a mutually satisfactory solution, dividing Kashmir territory, one part called Azad Kashmir or Free Kashmir is supervised by Pakistan, and another part is Jammu and Kashmir and is supervised by India
The never-ending wars between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir issue prompted India in 1974 to conduct six nuclear experiments. This means that India has become a nuclear state and is capable of destroying every enemy, namely Pakistan. This has pushed Pakistan to become a nuclear power by acquiring nuclear weapons. In 1988, India and Pakistan signed a non-aggression pact. Military science suggests that the Asian region is the most dangerous on earth and capable of destroying mankind. India, Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran are nuclear states. Religious conflicts and territorial disputes are accelerating the nuclear war. According to the Pentagon, the next nuclear war between India and Pakistan will claim at least 12 million deaths and more than 7 million wounded from the region.
India, as a big country and a major nuclear power in the Asian region, will not concede to Pakistan in this Kashmir conflict. But India is demanding the entire territory of Kashmir, i.e. Pakistani Kashmir and Chinese Kashmir and this is impossible to achieve, and the conflict is increasing today through the legal measures taken by the Indian state to annex Jammu and Kashmir to the sovereignty of the Indian state and wrest autonomy. Therefore, the solution to this issue remains through diplomacy and negotiations because the weapons, force and many wars in that region did not lead to any positive result.
India’s Constitutional Revocation and Prevalent Security Environment of Kashmir
During Prime Minister Imran Khan’s first ever visit to the US on July 23, 2019, President Trump had offered to mediate the outstanding Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan. This move was greatly appreciated by Pakistan with President Trump publicly stating that Prime Minster Modi had requested him to mediate between the two countries over Kashmir during the sidelines of 2019 G20 Summit held in Osaka in June this year. With President Trump’s offer to mediate at such a crucial time, the issue has once again achieved global significance. Moreover, President Trump’s mediation offers, and India’s recent move constitutionally revoke the special status offered to Kashmir would likely have serious implications within the prevalent security environment throughout the region.
India has often rejected such offers claiming Kashmir as its internal matter. Taking a step forward, on August 5, 2019 the government of India revoked the special status of the Kashmir region that has been previously granted under Articles 370 and 35(A) of the Indian constitution through a presidential order. Referred to as the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill that was later approved by parliament despite the opposition’s criticism. Under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution the Kashmir region had been awarded special constitutional rights and a ‘so-called’ autonomous status of decision making. Following the abrogation of Article 370, the Kashmir region would be divided into two ‘Union Territories’ i.e. Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh governed by the Indian central government.
The timing of this constitutional abrogation might have been influenced by President Trump’s offer of mediation between India and Pakistan that was reiterated by the US President despite India’s rejection. This abrogation was also part of the Bhartiya Janata Party’s (BJP) election manifesto as promised by Prime Minister Modi during the 2019 general election. By fulfilling this electoral promise, Mr. Modi is trying to assert that Kashmir is entirely an internal matter for India and that it would not allow any third country to interfere in the Kashmir issue irrespective of its relations with India.
Based on this notion India is inclined to project this political and constitutional change as its internal matter. By revoking the special status of this disputed region, India also intends to change the demography of Kashmir as much of the current population is Muslim. India has been involved in various tactics to change the demographic structure of Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) which includes a steady stream of Hindu migrants relocating and settling in masse from other parts of India in this predominantly Muslim region.
This trend is also evident in the region’s population numbers. In 1947 for instance, the Muslim population of IOK was about 79 per cent. As of 2018 this figure has been reduced to 68 per cent. In this regard the abrogation of Article 35(A) would likely intensify this trend as in the future, non-residents of Kashmir would be able to purchase property in Kashmir and would become permanent residents with a right to vote.
The security environment of Kashmir has been at stake in recent years due to India’s desire to oppress the freedom movement militarily. During Prime Minister Modi’s first term from 2014-2019 the Kashmiri freedom struggle has seen greater military suppression, especially since 2016 when a prominent freedom fighter Burhan Wani had been brutally assassinated. However, it seems that India has still not succeeded in achieving its desired objectives. After a landslide victory in the 2019 elections and with Mr. Modi once again in office as Prime Minster, the military suppression of the freedom movement in Kashmir has further intensified. Recently, India has deployed an additional 38,000 paramilitary troops in the region to join more than half a million troops and paramilitary forces already present. Along with this increased military presence in Kashmir, India has also been involved in continued aggression across the Line of Control (LoC) as evident by its use of prohibited ‘cluster bombs’ against the civilian population. These could have seriously provoked Pakistan to respond in an offensive way and might have resulted in another February 2019 episode.
At the present, Indian aggression along the LoC poses a major threat to peace in the region. India might believe that it could carry out a limited attack or ‘surgical strike’ against Pakistan which would stay below Pakistan’s nuclear threshold as evident from the February 2019 military engagement and the recent attacks along the LoC. India has repeatedly attempted to dominate the escalation ladder as was shown in the recent escalation instance the recent escalation following the Pulwama attack. Prime Minister Imran Khan has warned about the possibility of a ‘false-flag operation’ in Kashmir carried out by India for which Pakistan might be blamed. Based on such blame India could launch a limited attack or a low intensity conflict across the LoC. Consequently, Pakistan would be left with no choice but to respond in kind to any such aggression by India.
India’s abrogation of Kashmir’s special constitutional status and its military offensive in Kashmir could trigger another politico-military escalation between India and Pakistan within a year. India’s policy to forcefully make Kashmir an integral part of the Indian Union by annexing it through political and military means would serve a very dangerous precedent which would likely pose as a serious detriment towards the peaceful settlement of the Kashmir dispute. This change in the constitutional status of Kashmir would greatly limit the prospects for third-party mediation in the future especially for the United Nations, whose resolutions on Kashmir clearly provide a right of self-determination to decide Kashmir’s future. Unfortunately, the prevalent security environment in Kashmir is dominated by India’s aggressive behavior which ultimately would have long lasting implications for strategic stability throughout the South Asian region.
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