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The Trans-national Afghan Conspiracy

Ajmal Sohail

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The deplorable statistics of drug addicted people in Afghanistan exceeded one million and the poppy growth almost doubled since the international community’s call for counter-narcotics to be a #1 mission of the NATO Coalition.

The most outrageous in this context is that one third of the Afghan GDP comes from illegal narcotics.  The large portion of profit comes from drug trafficking. It flows to the pockets of the inner circle of President Karzai, likely including himself.

Official evidence may be hidden or destroyed but the Afghan people know the truth. They are forced into involvement mostly through survival. This lethal killing machine takes its toll on vulnerable and defenseless population of the country.  And the new reports of UNODC illustrates that Afghans have become the leading consumers of their own opium causing a high rate of deaths and addiction each year.

Afghanistan opium, at the international level, has created a drug market worth $65 billion, catering to 15 million addicts contributing to millions of deaths every year.  Consequently, instead of destroying the drug trade, the drug trade has become a pleasant business for the Karzai led government. That is why he time and again turns blind eyes to border and airports honest inspections and controls. Sources close to CIA say that transnational anti-crime and counter drug activities find this blind eye toward the borders and airports causes the appeal of international community mafia and organized crime criminals (Trans-national criminality). They use all land and air portals towards the passage of drug luggage and containers into the international arena. It also serves to resupply the organized crime groups with weapons of war coming into the Afghan territories. South and Central Asia depicts the enormous drug cartels where tons make their way to Central Asia, South Asia, Southwest/Southeast, Middle East and Europe and America virtually unimpeded except for highlighted arrests to make themselves look like they are doing their jobs.  To the international politicos it is all show and spin.

This activity gives the impression that either there are meaningless border/airport inspections or it they do not exist at all. The worst scandal is that President Karzai lashes out at SPA and SOFA to his personal demands. He calls for air-supremacy and ground superiority of the country to be in command of Afghan authorities although scores of sources have proven and there is no doubt that several ministries; counting Borders and Tribal affairs, MOI, MOD, Custom, Security, Police, etc are engrossed in bribery, intimidation, murder, kidnapping and ransom in conjunction with some part of the organized crime illegal narcotics industry. To be candid the entire illegal drugs and narcotics manufacturing goes thru Afghan government. Officials work for organized crime/covert operations allowing narcotics industry to flourish.

Around 70,000 foreign troops help manage security in the country. However, there is significant resistance from so-called Taliban, independent local warlords, drug lords especially in the areas where poppy are cultivated, drugs and narcotics are processed and trafficked. There is no rule of law at the bordering areas which connect Afghanistan and Pakistan. Amid Afghanistan and Iran and the central Asian countries, including the entire Stans’, bullets and violence rule. This in turn disrupts counter-narcotics efforts of US/Coalition. The mainly disgusting tale is that Karzai refuses to permit US/coalition to be involved in any border/airport activity and honest controls and inspections except mentoring and some technological improvements (which are usually inoperative) at the portals.  US and Coalition have been briefed on the situation and refuse to make it an issue on any level of negotiations. Furthermore, senior-most leaders [presidents], secret services and law enforcement agencies of all countries surrounding Afghanistan thru Russia on northern distribution route are complicit in allowing Karzai and his cronies to carry on the illegal narcotics distribution industry. Karzai will likely turn around and blame the international community yet again if he is ever blamed for the criminal activity.

To be frank there are little or no honest inspections on the borders or at the airports of Afghanistan, inside the country or in adjoining countries, allowing 95% of all global heroin commonly free distribution from Afghanistan. One can honestly say that presidents and political pundits of all surrounding countries in the entire region are engaged to consent to this conspiracy to be continued.  All leaders of all countries know where the problem comes from and refuse to act. All of these leaders are complicit with President Karzai in propagating this portion of major Trans-national criminality. They are all complicit in killing children and adults around the world or creating massive addictions. They are all complicit in killing and/or addicting millions of Afghans to heroin and opiates. They are all complicit in allowing President Karzai using Narcotics Industries to support the Afghan GDP and creating a sub-culture illegal job market in Afghanistan. They are all complicit in allowing Karzai to stay in power to protect the illegal narcotics market and the billions of US valued dollars that are illegally made and distributed. This Trans-national organized criminal activity is known by and obviously permitted by a myriad of international leaders who just as obviously must making large amounts of money from Karzai’s ability to run the largest Heroin/Opiate Syndicates in the world. Otherwise, they would stop the entire industry.

Drug trafficking has become a pleasurable industry to presidents and political authorities of the intact region. Very unfortunately, when they address the innocent citizens of the countries they applaud work for counter-narcotics efforts. Behind scenes, they cooperate with such a plot to keep on. When they are brazen with the public, they spin and articulate that it is impossible to protect total Afghan borders. Yet most of all narcotics and other black market materials moving out of Afghanistan, along with war formulating material into Afghanistan, comes thru, bought and paid for, by organized crime established borders and airports. To be blunt, this is one of the most prevalent shocking international trans-national conspiracies, in all history of Afghanistan and the entire globe. This in turn destroys all hope of democracy, interrupts free markets, depletes national assets, forces jobs and skills to be connected to criminality and kills or addicts innocent Afghans. As it is said, Trans-national Crime Networks often pick on failed states, states like Afghanistan. In order to tackle down such conspiracy proper inspections need to be placed on all portals of Afghanistan.  According to Louise I. Shelley, director of the Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center at George Mason University, “Transnational crime is a defining issue of the 21st century for policymakers – as defining as the Cold War for the 20th century and colonialism was for the 19th.

In accordance with, Yuri A. Voronin professor of Criminal Law, Urals State Law Academy Ekateringburg Russia, “Transnational criminal rings are becoming more and more powerful and universal and their mobility is growing. The means and resources of any state are not enough to seriously harm them”.

Therefore, participation of US/Coalition for further investigation at airports and borders of Afghanistan is indispensable and absolutely necessary. Otherwise, Trans-national Organized Crimes result in disrupting peace and stability of nations worldwide and a huge part of it originating from Afghanistan.

Ajmal Sohail is Co-founder and Co-president of Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany and he is National Security and counter terrorism analyst. He is active member of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)as well.

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South Asia

Abrogation of Article 370 and Pakistan’s Pathetic Response

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Pakistan, which is a party to Kashmir dispute could not make significant move after the Indian decision to scrap Article 370. The fragile economy, conventional military asymmetry and limited influence in international community restrict the options for Pakistan to take any strong stance against Indian illegal decision.

A month ago the government of BJP illegally dissolved the special status of Jammu and Kashmir through demolishing the Article 370. The article provides immunity to Jammu and Kashmir from Indian laws except foreign affairs, finance and communications. The decision is profoundly rejected by masses of Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan. In the mean time the opposition parties in India also expressed strong dissatisfaction against decision and predicted severe repercussions for Indian state. The decision has also been challenged in the Indian Supreme Court and hearing has already been started. Yet, since the 5th August Kashmir is under siege, curfew has been imposed, communication network, medical and health facilities have been blocked. The international human rights organizations and defenders issued a genocide warning and warned India not to commit genocide.

In this critical situation which is developed by India, Pakistan took stance to stand by Kashmir. Pakistan highlighted the violent action which engulfed the rights and lives of Kashmiri people’s. Although Pakistan expressed strong resistance and proclaimed to use all the means to give Kashmiri’s their right, but there is a huge difference in words and deeds. On behest of Pakistan, China called UN Security Council meeting to discuss the issue and Chinese ambassador strongly condemned the Indian action and urged both parties to resolve the dispute through peaceful means. Yet it is important to point out that permanent members of UNSC refused to issue a post meeting joint   statement.

Here it is wise to highlight that the international politics is dominated by the self-interests of dominant powers and weak states have no say in the system. Pakistan could not compete with Indian power in international relations. After scrapping the article, India immediately sought foreign support and Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to different states. Modi visited France, Bahrain and UAE, while Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan only made phone calls to seek support against Indian action. This clearly disclosed the inefficiency of Pakistan to counter the Indian narrative.

Indian economic and investment potential is another factor behind cool response of international powers. India is trading partner of many countries and most prominent among them are USA, UK, UAE, China, European Union and Australia. The US has invested 9 million in India during the 2016 and UK has signed the commercial deals of 9.3 million recently. Australia is benefitted from Indian students and its education export is 2 billion dollars. EU a group of 27 independent states is another major investor and trade partner of India with 2.5 % international shares.

In contemporary international politics, diaspora is a backbone of any nation and same is true for India. It is observed that Indians are residing almost every influential state. More than 3.5 million Indians are working in UAE. During the 2015, Indian share was 16% in expats residing in the US, and Saudi Arabia host 1.9 million Indians. Kuwait having 1 million Indian workers and Oman 777,632 Indians. Europe also host the 1.2 million Indians.

The bilateral trade of India with US, China, EU, Japan, and Australia is impressive. In 2019, bilateral trade of India-China crossed the 100 billion, which expects to grow further. The US is second largest trading partner of India in goods, and the single largest export destination of Indian exporters. The bilateral trade has been grew at 7.59% annually from 68.4 billion in 2008 to 142.1 billion in 2018.

The 8.8 million Pakistanis are residing in western states, 4.7 million are living in EU and 1.2 in U.K. But Pakistan failed to activate its diaspora to promote national interests of the state. The Pakistani leadership never paid serious attention to engage diaspora, which resulted in poor representation of Pakistan in international community. On the other hand, Indian diaspora is much influential and have strong say in policies of US and EU. Their skills and education help them to climb the ladder of success and influence. So, it is high time for Pakistan to devise an effective strategy to lobby the national interests and engage diaspora. The diaspora is considered the defense line as they bridge the gap between their parent and host state. 

Pakistan’s economic structure is fragile with rising debt and prices of commodities. The country is dependent on international monitory institutions to repay its debt which crossed over 100 billion dollars. It is on 150thposition in poverty index among 189 countries according to UN Human Development Indicators. The value of rupee is decreased to lowest level and government is losing its credibility. Pakistan is spending its 20% budget on Army which is higher than education, health and social development allocation. The fragile economy, poor coordination in policy making and influence of military in foreign policy making has reduced the role of other state institutions. Although, current civilian government claims that civilian and military leadership is on same page, but the poor and ill-coordinated response exposed the fault lines. The top hierarchy of civilian and political leadership did not bother itself to convey Pakistani position on Kashmir, except making statements.

If Pakistan really want to influence the international community, then it needs to fix its poor economy, to improve its human and social system, engage diaspora, make effective and inclusive foreign and security policy. The economic, political and military power can guarantee the national interests of the country. So Pakistan work tirelessly on all the fronts to achieve the status of major power.

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Pakistan’s peace-loving gestures are considered its weakness, unfortunately

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Pakistan is a peace-loving nation and a responsible state. The leadership, civil and military. Both are visionary and rational very much. Pakistan was the hub of western tourists in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, due to its natural beauty, friendly and hospitable environment, and affordable living. Economic growth was one of the highest in this part of the world. But suffered a lot since the 1980s, due to the situation in Afghanistan. It was not our war, but unfortunately, we were pushed into this war. As a result, Pakistan offered 80,000 precious lives of Pakistani nationals, an economic loss of estimated up to 250 billion US dollars. In addition to it, extremism, terrorism, trafficking, smuggling, ethnicity, intolerance, gun, and drug culture, etc. were a gift. Due to the war-like situations during the last 4 decades, nations spared all resources, including human resources, financial resources etc on imposed war-front. As a result, industrial agriculture, infrastructure development, education, SW&T, R&D, Innovation, Commercialization, Health Sector, etc all walks of life suffered a lot and as result, today facing the worst economic crisis with over 100 billion foreign debt.

But, after having so many bitter lessons, the nation is even more mature and trained to survive under any circumstances. In fact, has emerged one of the most resilient nation. India staged the drama of “Pulwan” on 14 February this year, and without collecting evidence and investigation, just within hours, blamed Pakistan and threatened Pakistan. Pakistan offered to extend full cooperation in investigation and punish the responsible. But, India, according to pre-plan, attacked Pakistan on the 25th of February and dropped bombs in Balakot a city deep inside Pakistan. The leadership of Pakistan is very much sensible and rational and noticed that India is pushing Pakistan into full-scale war. The visionary leadership in Pakistan realized the consequences of war, especially when, both India and Pakistan, both are nuclear states, possessing enough piles of lethal weapons to destroy each other completely, and its impact on the region as well as global. Formulated a smart strategy to respond on the 27th of February, giving a message to India, that although Pakistan has capabilities and enjoys supremacy over India, it still sticks to “Love-For-Peace” and does not wish to opt for war, successfully averted to escalate to a full-fledged war. Even that, Pakistan released the captured pilot of Indian air force inside Pakistan territory, as a good-will gesture.

India revoked its own constitution on the 5th of August and imposed curfew in Kashmir. It is an act of war and violation of UN charter, Simla Agreement and all norms & practices of civilized world. Siege of Kashmir, complete black-out by suspending Internet, mobile phone services. Cutting all modes of communication, evacuating all foreigners and visitors from Kashmir. Keeping people under house arrest. Occupying forces are killing, arresting, detaining and raping on a mass scale and draconian laws imposed empowered the security forces to shot at a spot on suspicion only, with any judicial process. After 42 days of curfew, people are facing a severe shortage of food, fuel, electricity, medicines, and life is completely at a halt, stand-still status. It is the largest curfew in the known-history of human beings, as around 8 million people are under siege, and Kashmir has been turned into a big jail, people are treated as prisoners. India’s atrocities and brutalities have crossed all records of human rights violations.

UN, Human Rights Organizations, Mainstream Media, International organizations, NGOs, the whole International community have shown deep concerns on Indian atrocities. Protests, agitations, rallies, and demonstrations, all around the world as solidarity with the people of Kashmir have been witnessed. European Parliaments, UNSC, OIC, SCO, and all other international organizations are worried about the deteriorated situation of humanity in Kashmir.

Kashmir is a dispute between China, Pakistan, and India. India has illegally occupied a part of Kashmir known as Indian Occupied Kashmir. But people of Kashmir are spread all over three parts, i.e in Pakistan known as Azad or Free Kashmir and China. Kashmir is one nation and having blood relations in all three parts. They are charged at peak to enter into India Occupied Kashmir and help their brothers and sister in Indian Occupied Kashmir. They wanted to provide them food, medicines and basic necessities of life. The government of Pakistan is trying its best to stop them to march toward Indian Occupied Kashmir, as they are unarmed and simple villagers, they might have the high spirits to rescue the lives of their brothers and sisters in Indian Kashmir but might face firing by Indian Army. I am afraid, the public pressure is growing with passing each day and they might march toward Indian Occupied Kashmir, and Pakistani Security Forces may not be able to stop them, then they might come under the Indian forces firing range. It might complicate the situation. The government of Pakistan is committed to observing restrains and avert any war, with India, but if its civilians are killed, it may create an unexpected situation, difficult to predict the reaction.

On the other hand, Indian military deployment along the line of control and frequent violations of line of control, use of cluster bombs on civilian population inside Pakistan, and war-preparations are alarming. Indian Army Chief announced that The Indian Army is well prepared to Attack Pakistan and just waiting for a signal from its Government in Delhi.

Pakistan is trying its best to observe restrains and showing maximum tolerance and patience. But India considers Pakistan “Love-For-Peace” as its “weakness”, Unfortunate! Very Unfortunate!

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South Asia

Webinar: Kashmir Outside the Crosshairs- Does Anyone Care about Kashmir?

MD Staff

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Join Modern Diplomacy and our Executive Vice Chairman, Prof. Matthew Crosston, for a Live Intelligence briefing / Webinar, on Sunday September 29 at 18:30 (IST) to learn:

* Why does the US continue to ignore Kashmir but give loads of attention to every country around it?

* Is it necessarily a positive if the US DOES start paying attention to it? 

* What would be GOOD attention and what be BAD? Which one is the US likely to give?

* Can Kashmir ever be left alone to develop independently and not be a pawn of regional neighbors?

These and other controversial but critically important questions will be covered in an exciting intelligence briefing that will still allow for a dynamic, open discussion exchange with one the world’s most recognized, accomplished and sought after Intelligence experts, Dr. Prof. Matthew Crosston, Executive Vice Chairman of Modern Diplomacy.

Reserve your seat here

Dr. Matthew Crosston is Director over all Intelligence programs and Professor of Strategic Intelligence and Global Security in the School of Security and Global Studies at the American Military University. He is an acclaimed author and international speaker who consults with governments, media organizations, and academic institutions on a range of issues covering peace mediation, human rights conflicts, resource dilemmas, intelligence, change leadership, and education innovation. His works overall have been translated into Russian, Arabic, Chinese, Indonesian, Hebrew, Spanish, Turkish, Farsi, Greek, and Uzbek. He has a BA from Colgate University, MA from the University of London, PhD from Brown University, and completed his Post-Doctoral Fellowship at the University of Toronto.

Modern Diplomacy and Center for International Strategic Analyses

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