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Prospects for the Development of RF’s Policy in Central Asia

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The results of the official visit of RF President V.Putin to Tajikistan that took place on October 4-5 suggest there is a probability of increased tension in the Central Asian region within the nearest 9-12 months.

Moscow’s attention to Tajikistan should be discussed in the context of building up its presence in Central Asia (CA) within the framework of the attempt to create Eurasian geopolitical project. This project is expected to restore Kremlin’s geopolitical influence on the post-Soviet space under new political and economic conditions.

Availability of sufficient energy resources in the region allows some countries to claim to attempt conducting their own foreign policy. Russia’s loss of control over these countries will pose direct threat to both RF’s geopolitical model in the region and its monopoly/control over regular energy carriers transportation routes.

Today, Russia has opportunities for exercising full-scale influence only in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. However, one may say that Kazakhstan falls under the same influence because pro-Russia moods among local elites and their favouring preservation of Nazarbayev’s regime allows Moscow to overcome the country’s energy independence not least of all by means of involving Astana in the Customs Union. However, due to geographical location, economic potential and political regime Dushanbe still remains the most controlled Russia’s partner in the region helping to efficiently achieve its foreign policy objectives.

Regional Tactical Standpoint. Today, Moscow has faced the issues of developing its geopolitical projects on the territory of Central Asia. Key problems come from official Tashkent (Uzbekistan) which had already suspended its membership in EurAsEu, as well as in CSTO – in 1999 and 2012. As for the latter, Tashkent has not ratified a single significant document. According to our estimations, Uzbekistan’s distancing from CSTO is first of all related to expectations of profitable proposals regarding hosting US military bases on the country’s territory, as well as to the attempts to avoid entering Russia’s geopolitical arena and preserve opportunities for foreign policy manoeuvres. Moreover, Karimov’s regime has been lately under pressure, in particular in respect to businesses related to his daughter Gulnara, and opposition forces in exile declare their plans to organize civil disobedience in Uzbekistan aimed at overthrowing the antidemocratic regime. Similar situation forces Karimov to manoeuvre between Washington and Moscow and remain neutral, at the same time staying interesting and promising for both parties.

Probability of republicans rising to power after the next presidential election in the US will enhance American present in the region in future – especially in the context of conflict with Iran. Moreover, Uzbekistan is the most favourable base for the localization of a part of military forces removed from the territory of Afghanistan in case immediate return and deployment in this country is needed. The US is also expected to relocate to Uzbekistan a part of the armed forces remaining after withdrawing the coalition’s forces in Afghanistan in 2014.

Thus, Russia may face enhanced competition in CA on the part of the US and China within a short-term period. Such changes in the foreign policy situation require more drastic actions from Kremlin aimed at strengthening its influence in the region.

Military and Political Standpoint. According to the signed agreements, Russia has prolonged its military presence in Tajikistan for 30 years. Ministers of Defence signed a treaty replacing the previous one that came into force in May of 1993 and is going to terminate in 2014. Duration of the new treaty is 49 years.

The treaty is of great military and political importance since it stipulates that Russia will keep under control one of the largest exterritorial military groups in Central Asia. Firstly, this will allow Moscow to control security within the region after complete withdrawal of coalition’s military forces from Afghanistan. We believe that withdrawal of ISAF troops from Afghanistan will trigger rise of radical forces on the borders of Central Asian republics and will pose a threat to stability of these countries’ regimes. This process will be probably accompanied by increasing drug trafficking from this country. Therefore, Kremlin in its strategic model sees Tajikistan first of all as a border containing radical Islamic forces from the territory of Afghanistan. Secondly, 2013 will see presidential election in the country participation in which of the current president E.Rachmon may raise a question about legitimacy of the procedure and destabilize the situation in the country according to the “colour revolution” scenario. Thirdly, this will give Moscow a chance to achieve parity under conditions of probable deployment of American military bases on the territory of Uzbekistan.

Moreover, 201 Russian Military Base (RMB) and financial aid in the amount of USD 5 million will allow more effective prevention of drug trafficking towards Russia in which – as of today – some representatives of Tajikistan army and border troops are involved which is proved by recent event in Gorno-Badakhshan (GBAR). The same events showed that Tadjik authorities in fact have no control over about 45% of their territory, and there is a probability of another round of separatism and extremism in Gorno-Badakhshan. Back in 2010, confrontation tendencies here were enhanced after the breach of agreement between official Dushanbe and the groups controlling the Rasht Valley which the authorities failed to take under control. According to the operational report prepared by Da Vinci AG analytic group in February 2011, Tajikistan is the most vulnerable state in Central Asia for the implementation of “Arab spring” scenario. Therefore, Russian military presence will guarantee security to E.Rachmon’s regime and enhance stability of the regime and domestic policy situation in the country. This is also important considering the personal conflict between E.Rachmon and I.Karimov which, in our opinion, may turn into a military conflict in case of implementation of water and energy supply projects by Tajikistan which may cause water deficiency within the republic. Therefore, RMB 201 may influence the decision-making process in Uzbekistan regarding planning of acts of violence against Dushanbe.

All this strengthens RF’s position in the region, ensures stable implementation of integration projects for it, as well as enhances the role of CSTO as regional security organization.

Situation Forecast. We believe that Moscow’s medium-term tactics lies in the use of contradictions of Dushanbe for the purpose of strengthening its position in the region. Moscow will seek to keep influence on Tajikistan by means of providing military assistance, security guarantees and economic support in the form of liberalization of labour migration for Tadjiks and abolition of export duties on light oils. Plans to increase labour migration flow from Tajikistan aimed at reducing tension in this country caused by unemployment will probably be accompanied by tightening of migration policy in relation to migrant workers – including from Ukraine and Moldova. Introduction of new migration rules is quite advantageous for RF. 75% of migrants from Central Asia have families on their native land and send them money. Thus, by employing foreigners on its own territory Moscow reduces tension in Central Asian countries where male unemployment can stimulate growth of extremism. Moreover, 99% of them go to Russia seeking some earnings and do not plan on staying on its territory unlike representatives of European post-Soviet republics.

According to our estimations, Kremlin is interested in the creation of confrontation between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (and possibly Kyrgyzstan). For this purpose, Moscow takes measures to support implementation of infrastructure projects which pose threat to Uzbekistan’s security. It concerns construction of Rogun HPS and Kambar-Atin HPS-1. In case construction of dams on these two sites is completed Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will get an opportunity to regulate flows of trans-border rivers Naryn in Kirgizia and Vahksh in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, thus creating water deficiency there. Receiving control over water resources by means of investment projects with the participation of Russian companies RusHydro and RAO UES will allow Kremlin to get bargaining chips in the process of negotiations with Uzbekistan and offset its regional influence as a supplier of energy resources.

We suppose that there is quite little probability of implementation of this project by Moscow. Such implementation is rather risky considering the fact that the dam which is going to become the world’s largest is situated at the point of tectonic fault and high seismic activity. In view of the aforesaid, investments in the amount of about USD 3 billion managed by Russian companies are imposed to high financial and reputation risks and seem to be unreasoned from the economic point of view. However, results of V.Putin’s visit in October show that Russia for the first time got involved in Tadjik-Kyrgyz water-energy project in which it had been persistently staying neutral for several years. We believe that this is a part of a multi-move game in which Moscow provokes escalation of tension between Dushanbe and Tashkent and between Tashkent and Bishkek, and then will become mediator in the regulation process taking up issues of peaceful regulation of regional conflicts.

Moreover, as 2014 is approaching I.Karimov’s regime will seek foreign support and security guarantees on its southern borders. Despite the fact that the length of borders with Afghanistan for Uzbekistan is significantly less than for Tajikistan, infiltration of radical Islam into its territory, intrusion of armed troops into its territory from Afghanistan aimed at destabilization of the situation within the country and spread of influence of Uzbek sub-ethnic groups and clans of Afghanistan on Uzbekistan are quite likely. At the same time, Tashkent has no resources to maintain its positions on the southern border with Afghanistan and 100% of control over its own part of Ferghana Valley where chances are high that the activity will revive, nor to prevent revitalization of opposition forces. In view of the above, Moscow probably hopes that under such conditions Tashkent will not be able to show active resistance to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and will agree to trade-off alternatives of settling the issues, including within the framework of pro-Russian geopolitical projects.

However, we believe that the situation is not likely to take such turn. Moscow has 9-12 more months until the situation with the construction of hydro-energy sites brings Dushanbe to understanding of the fact that Kremlin uses it in its geopolitical strategy. There was a similar situation in the past when Russian companies refused to complete the construction of the very same Rogun HPS which caused cooling down of relations with Tajikistan. This may result in significant strengthening of China’s positions due to investment infusion in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and construction of transport communications in Ferghana Valley.

In our opinion, Russia’s policy in the region will result in the fact that Tashkent will use a manoeuvre aimed at imitation of return under Russia’s wing. In such case, Kremlin will face an issue of fulfilling obligations to Dushanbe because the strategic plan suggests that the importance of Uzbekistan for Kremlin is more significant. Such games will hardly bring a happy end to Moscow because weakness of national economies of most Central Asian countries facilitates growth of radicalism and reduction of stability, and variety of tribes and clans complicates consolidation of power and implementation of efficient domestic policy which allows to predict further development of the situation in some of them according to Libyan scenario. Moreover, RF uses contradictions of CA countries under conditions of non-conflict infiltration of PRC into this region. Therefore, Russia’s influence in the region may be significantly reduced in case of change of power in one of the countries: Uzbekistan or Tajikistan which will strengthen positions of China and the US.

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Central Asia

Kazakh President Tokaev introduces reforms

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Authors: Srimal Fernando and Kirtan Bhana* 

Political transformation will make Kazakhstan a success story. Political reforms will ignite progress in economic reforms this, according to President Tokaev  as he met with the National Council of Public Trust in Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana), the Kazakh capital on December 20.

The Council, created by President Tokaev .   in July is entrusted with facilitating the reforms through interactions and discussions with the general public, political parties, civil society and business. Composed of 44 public figures the Council is representative of the broader Kazakh demographic.

‘Different Opinions, One Nation’ said the President as he introduced new measures that guarantee the fundamental rights and freedoms to all its citizens. These measures will deepen the public discourse allowing for debate and open engagement on issues that affect all Kazakhs.

The emotive issue of land and its effective use was top on the list of challenges to be tackled by the Tokaev  Presidency.  Apart from the unbreakable link to ancestry and heritage the economic value of the land is priceless. Kazakhstan is listed as the 9th largest country in the world with a relatively small population of around 19 million people. On this issue, my position is adamant: only those who are able to cultivate the land deserve to be its owner stated Tokaev. The Ministry of Agriculture is implementing a pilot project to monitor unused land through remote earth sensing, and to increase the base tax rate for those who own but do not use their land from 10 to 20 times.

Growing the private sector and reducing the economic involvement of state businesses in competitive markets and adjusting the quota of foreign labour by 40% were also proposed.  

On Foreign debt President Tokaev  instructed The Ministries of the National Economy, Finance and the National Bank to develop a Unified Register of External Debt in the form of a digitised database by April 2020.

Stabilising the Tenge (the currency in Kazakhstan) to increase public and investor confidence, a new monetary policy strategy will be adopted. The National Bank will, from 1 January, announce the exchange rate of the National Fund’s currency market on a monthly basis.

Modernizing the pension system, jobs for disabled people, state allowances and social packages for low-income households will be increased by over 70%.  In addition school going children from these families will receive free school meals, uniforms and kits, as well as free transportation to and from school. These were among other social services measures presented to the council.

Political reforms were central to the President’s remarks. A draft law on political rallies will outline the correct registration procedures of political rallies and will determine the status of the organiser(s), participants, observers and their respective rights and obligations. A minimum membership threshold needed to register a political party will be reduced from 40,000 to 20,000 members. Women and Youth candidates must make up 30% of party election lists. A law will be passed to allow representatives from other parties to hold Chair positions on some Parliamentary committees, in order to foster alternative views and opinions.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is tasked to begin the process of acceding to the Second Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which deals with abolishing the death penalty. Article 130 of the Criminal Code on defamation will be decriminalised and transferred to the Administrative Code.

Key Domestic reforms include the transition of the Kazakh language from a Cyrillic to a Latin alphabet will necessitate a modernising of the language system and require a scientific approach.

“Much depends on simple values that are cherished by our people, in the family, in everyday life. Frankly speaking, today people are tired of the world full of aggression and conflict. Therefore, we must spread good intentions and good actions. We should be kind, benevolent and principled – this is the driving force of sustainable development and spiritual revival,” said President Tokaev as he concluded his speech.

*Kirtan Bhana in the Founding Editor and Travel Envoy for the Diplomatic Society of South Africa.

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Central Asia

Kazakhstan: Celebrating 28 Years of Independence

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Pictured cutting the celebratory cake are (l-r) Mr Kanat Tumysh, Ambassador of Kazakhstan, Mr Joseph Gerard B. Angeles, Ambassador of Philippines and Dean of the Asian Group, Mr Bene M’Poko, Ambassador of the DRC and Dean of the Diplomatic Corps and Dr Monde Tom, Director-General of the Department of Trade and Investment of South Africa

Authors: Srimal Fernando and Kirtan Bhana

In Kazakhstan, like in many other nations around the globe, Independence Day is commemorated by conferring awards, national orders and medals on those that have made exemplary contributions to statehood. On December 16, 1991 the Constitutional Independence Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan was passed making Kazakhstan the last of the Soviets to leave the Union and declare sovereignty.

Many other milestones followed this historic date for the Kazakh people, including membership of the United Nations (UN), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1992 and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1994. This year also marks the tenth anniversary of the closing of the world’s second largest Nuclear Test Site at Semipalatinsk by the historic decree of Nursultan Nazarbayev, First President of Kazakhstan, which paved the way for the adoption in 1996 of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty – CTBT. The country was declared a nuclear weapon free country.

Located strategically in the heart of Central Asia, Kazakhstan shares a 6800km border with Russia and a1700km border with China. Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are the other three regional neighbours. Kazakhstan is considered a landlocked country but adjoins a large part of the Caspian Sea in the west.

The Kazakh people elected a Presidential system of government with two chambers of parliament. There are 14 political parties; Nur-Otan is the current ruling party. The lower house is the Mazhilis, with 107 seats and the upper house is the Senate which has 47 members. Women representation in national and local government is steadily increasing.

Having diplomatic relations with over 120 countries, Kazakhstan has a clear multi-vector international relations policy and has achieved much on the global stage in almost three decades of independence. Being elected as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Kazakhstan was further crowned by being elected as president of the UNSC for 2018. Its stance on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons is well known and so is its support for the transformation of the UNSC. Kazakhstan also presented a proposal for ending terrorism in the world by 2025 during its presidency.

Kazakhstan has become a fully integrated member of the international community joining many multilateral organizations, and bilateral treaties and agreements. Turkey was the first country to present letter of credence for the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador to Kazakhstan.

The radical transformation of the economic to a free market has seen large foreign direct invest flows into the country, growing the economy to become the most significant in the Central Asian region. New president KassymJomart Tokayev has introduced a raft of new measures that are directly aimed at stimulating enterprise, entrepreneurship and small business development. Other reforms introduced are motivation for Kazakhstan to become one of the top 30 economic nations.

Islam was introduced to Kazakhstan in the 7th century. Its ancient history is steeped in nomadic life of hunters and animal rearing. The philosophy of Al-Farabi and the poetry of Abai is legendary and filled with folklore. The dombra, a string instrument, is at the very essence of Kazakh culture and resonates with the music of love and heartache.

Modern and contemporary art forms, classical music and ballet have also found place in Kazakh society as the younger generations narrate poetry in restaurants. This together with the Kazakh’s nomadic heritage, Islamic traditions and modern art and culture has become an attraction for tourists looking for new and dynamic destinations to experience and explore. Its breath-taking landscapes and abundant natural beauty and the snow-capped mountains offers much to the intrepid traveller as it emerges as a unified nation with much potential, opportunities and prospects.

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Central Asia

Poverty Continues to Decline, but Pace of Poverty Reduction is Slowing in Central Asia

MD Staff

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Although poverty rates in Central Asia continue to decline overall, the pace of poverty reduction is slowing, according to new data released by the World Bank. High levels of poverty remain in pockets of rural and remote areas, which also suffer from lack of employment opportunities, say new Poverty Outlooks for Central Asian countries, released ahead of International Day for the Eradication of Poverty on 17 October.

“The good news is that Central Asia continues to make progress towards eliminating poverty,” says Lilia Burunciuc, World Bank Country Director for Central Asia “However, poverty reduction is happening much less quickly than before. Rekindling inclusive growth should therefore be among the region’s most urgent priorities.”

Since the 2000s, all Central Asian countries have made significant progress in reducing poverty, but most of this progress occurred in the first few years of that decade. In the eight years from 2002 to 2009, the poverty rate dropped an average of seven percentage points per year in both Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic – down from nearly 70 percent to 25 percent in Tajikistan and to 20 percent in the Kyrgyz Republic. Since then, however, poverty rates have fallen much more slowly: by only one percentage point per year on average in Tajikistan (from 25 percent to a projected 13 percent in 2019), and by nearly zero in the Kyrgyz Republic, stalling at about 20 percent from 2009 through to today.

Poverty in Kazakhstan was already lower in the early 2000s and declined at a rate of four percentage points per year from 2002 to 2009, at which point the country had almost eliminated poverty, as measured by the low-middle-income indicator of $3.20 per day. However, when measured by the upper-middle-income indicator of $5.50 per day, the poverty rate in Kazakhstan reached its lowest point in 2013, at about 6 percent, and since then has remained stuck above 7 percent.

The slowing rate of poverty reduction in Central Asian countries reflects several economic challenges, as well as difficulties securing jobs with decent incomes for vulnerable groups of the population.

Youth and women in the region are most likely to struggle with unemployment or low incomes. In Uzbekistan, World Bank data shows that over 25 percent of women aged 15-24 were unemployed in 2018, compared to 13 percent of men in the same age group. In the Kyrgyz Republic, 15 percent of women aged 15-28 were unemployed at that time, compared to only 9 percent of men in the same age group.

Recently published poverty maps for Central Asian countries reveal that many of the remaining poverty hotspots in the region are in rural areas that lack close integration with urban growth centers. This is especially pertinent for parts of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, where poverty rates are above 40 percent in the most remote districts.

The analysis also finds that the middle-class in Central Asia is almost entirely concentrated in and around a handful of big cities: Nur-Sultan, Almaty, Tashkent, and to a lesser extent, in Dushanbe and Bishkek. One of the main challenges faced by all countries in the region is ensuring that people are not excluded from these dynamic labor markets.

The World Bank recommends policies that provide greater employment opportunities for people, expanding the availability of affordable housing in growing and prosperous cities, encouraging faster wage growth, and supporting vulnerable groups so they can be more competitive in the labor market.

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