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Afghanistan socio-economic and socio-political overview

Ajmal Sohail

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Afghanistan‘s economic growth has slowed but remains satisfactory levels to generate rising average standards of living. Real GDP growth is expected to close the fiscal year 2011-12 at 5.7 percent, down from 8.4 percent in 2010-11. The slowdown in growth was mainly due to weather-related condition which lowered agriculture output to below –average levels.

The economy this year (2012-2013) GDP growth-related to pick up again and is projected to reach 7.1 percent , favorable weather condition during the first quarter of the year resulted in good harvest season , which is likely to increase agricultural  output.

The service sector will continue to account for about half economic growth for next year fueled by the growth in the telecommunication sector.

In addition, donor funding and development projects will continue to drive the demand for transportation and distribution service.

Longer-term projections are less positive, aid levels are expected to decline significantly this will reduce GDP growth levels of 4 to 5 percent per year.

A sizeable financing gap will continue to exist through 2012 despite projections of healthy growth in domestic revue collection. Afghanistan’s biggest economic challenge is finding sources of sustainable and equitable growth.

Education: in 2001 after the fall of Taliban, net enrollment was estimated at 43% for boys and a dismal 3% for girls. Moreover, there were only about 21,000 teachers (large under-educated) for a school-age population estimated at more than 5 million-or about 240 students for every marginally trained teacher.

Since 2002, school enrollment has increased from 1 million to 7.2 million children girls enrollment increased from 191,000 to more than 2, 71 million. More than 101,000 teacher qualifications and the overall access to equitable quality education in Afghanistan.

Health: according to recent data from Afghanistan mortality survey 2010 (AMS 2010) life expectancy at birth is at 64 years. Only 27% of Afghans have access to safe drinking water and 5% adequate sanitation, nevertheless there has been considerable progress over the last 9 years, about 85% of the population lives in districts which now have providers to deliver basic package of health facility (based on AMS 2010). Infant and under -5 mortality in 2010 has declined to 77 and 97 per 1,000 live birth respectively from 111 and 161 per 1,000 live births in 2008. The pregnancy-related mortality ratio is about 327 per 100,000 births, which means that every two hours a women dies in Afghanistan from pregnancy-related causes.

Access to electricity: the percentage of population with access to electricity in Afghanistan among the lowest in the world. The ministry of energy and water estimates that about 30% of Afghans have access to electricity from grid-based power, micro-hydro or solar panel stations.

The situation has improved significantly in the major urban population centers along the critical north-east corridor between Mazar-e-sharif and Kabul, following the importance  of power from Uzbekistan and the rehabilitation of three hydro plants (Mahipar and Sorobi completed and Nghlu ongoing) increasing parts of some urban centers, for example Kabul, Mazar-e-sharif, and Pul-e-khomri, now have a 24 hrs power supply for the first time in decades.

Revenue Collection: since the implementation of an Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA), the collection of transit fees in major transit corridors in Afghanistan has improved customs revenues have soared from around $50 million in 2003 (SY 1382) to over US$ 1 billion in 2011-2012 an increase of around 2,000% in 8 years.

Approximately 90% percent of imports and exports are covered through automated processing, the waiting time for trucks at the major border crossings has also decreased. The Afghan Custom Department has started the process to carry out customs performance measurement at Torkhum, Hairatan and Kabul Inland Customs Depots, but still there are vigorous signs of corruption are overseen the local heads of the department are involved in corruption but supported by the ministers within the administration these custom offices allow chemicals used in narcotics an illegal drugs (poppy, morphine) and other type of most dangerous drugs even they allow explosives and ammunitions for the Taliban to later on they are used to attack  coalition forces an Afghan security organizations the said Customs Department is doing just because of money purposes a long with that most of the staff are hired through private relation which has doubled the worsen situation within the system.

Role of commercial banks in the economic development of Afghanistan: in country like Afghanistan which is still in the initial stages of economic development, a well organized banking system is the need of the day. There is acute shortage of capital in private banking sector of Afghanistan; the banks can play an important role in promoting capital formation, in controlling speculation in maintaining a balance between requirements and availabilities and directing physical resources into desired channels.

Commercial banks play an active and important role in the economic development of a country if the banking system in country is effective and disciplined; it brings about a rapid growth in the various sectors of economy  but in Afghanistan a long side the in effectiveness of the banking system corruption and nepotism has played even negative role in the said sector  even worth the Afghan commercial and non-commercial banks are busy with money laundering for bulk money of the terror regime of Iran the worst case is most of such banks with such attitudes are openly supported by the President Karzai administration most blame even him that he is part of all these activities his family members are share holders of the said banks and these banks are established via mafia channels the money which invested are the output of drug dealing and seizing the public and private properties all in all mortified  the economy of Afghanistan , despite of the mentioned challenges the use of online banking is now increasing day by day, it has brought revolution in banking industry. The online banking which is the wave of future is now on the move in Afghanistan and progressing satisfactory to some extent.

Some of the banks already stared providing ATM/MCS to the customers to develop e-banking such as online money transfer, shopping, ease of business and travel tours.

Political perspective: Afghanistan is pretty critical from the political perception full of challenges, war-lords are in place, corruption, and lawlessness tremendously strained Afghan people. Most importantly, the insurgency has become sturdy. Most of the bordering areas between Afghanistan Pakistan and between Afghanistan and Iran are out of the run of the Afghan government. One major portion of the state [the judiciary] has outlawed real discussion and the President has failed to set up its members of government. War criminals and organized crime activists are highly maneuvering and laying more burdens on the shoulder of ordinary Afghans. Dreadfully fewer economic and political developments have taken place. The legislative appendage is not feasible. Most of its members are warlords, drug mafia or criminals. The absence of democratic tenets such as justice, fairness or civil liberties, have outcomes that enduringly collide between sundry limbs of the state. The largest part, notably the unconstitutional proceeds of president, added to the tribulations.

Regional conflict: Contention flanked by US and China on one hand and on the other between US and Russia. The rivalry linking Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as among Pakistan and India continues to be a problem. The panic of losing the war on terror, revitalization of radicalism, Islamization of the society, economic stagnation and unemployment  have caused total failure in Afghanistan and most of Afghans have lost any hope in the current and future of the country. Most imagine the worst. There are no new beginnings for the country. Most of the youngsters endeavor to take refuge in the western world, therefore one can observe gloomy and hazy ambiance of Afghanistan.

Security outlook: As it is obvious that Afghanistan previously facing numerous enemies, defies most specially the vulnerable security circumstances generated here. An open arena for drug dealers, land mafia, economic mafia, war-lords and organized criminals exists to take advantage of situations. Beside corruption, nepotism and dissipations of the national security agencies (such as national police, army and intelligence) have added to the insufficiency of the security sectors even with proper training. Additionally, to the NATO abandonment of Afghanistan, we possibly will adjoin dividedness between tribes and tribal leaders. Furthermore, issues between war-lords, religious fantasist, socio-political fractions and splinter groups as our result total pandemonium will evoke events of the 90’s. Consequently, the NATO withdrawal will escort the country towards arm strife among plenty of tribes, drug dealers, religious political factions which may bring about disintegration of the country. This may occur in addition to a real clash between Sunni and Shia peoples.

Ajmal Sohail is Co-founder and Co-president of Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany and he is National Security and counter terrorism analyst. He is active member of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)as well.

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South Asia

The efficiency of German contribution in the Afghan peace process

Ajmal Sohail

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Germany is heavily involved in the afghan affairs since 9.11.2001; the country has brought in to being the modern Afghanistan thru launching the international Bonn conference “Bonn 1” in December 2001, the said conference toke place right after the collapse of the barbaric regime of Taliban in Afghanistan. Furthermore, it paved the way to engage several rival groups to establish an interim administration under the leadership of pro-American figure “Hammed Karzai”. Albeit the conference was a turning point in the Afghan modern history, but it encompassed numerous shortcomings because Taliban, Haqani Network and Hikmatyar band, who had been the main adversaries to the acting Government, were excluded from the process, which opened Pandora’s Box. Moreover, the national interests and apprehensions of the regional countries were not taken serious, which in turn caused destabilization and gloominess in Afghanistan.

Consequently, Pakistan and Iran who have been pursuing strategic depth in Afghanistan began to regroup, fund, train and outfit the Afghan government antagonists, which unfortunately incited a proxy war in the country. 

The second Bonn conference

Germany hosted the second Bonn conference in December the 5th 2011 to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the first Bonn conference, in order to renew the so-called mutual commitment to a table, democratic and prosperous future for Afghanistan.

In addition, the participants of the conference ought to shed lights on some issues such as governance, security, economic developments, regional cooperation, peace process and the way forward. The participants called for a political solution to achieve peace and security in Afghanistan, in order to ensure durable stability.

Additionally, it was discussed to promote capacity building in the country to uphold   a political process, to endorse negotiation and reconciliation. Unfortunately, the conference primarily focused on economic developments and continuation of democratization in the country, so that the peace process was sidelined and the root-cause of the instability and insecurity was not identified. Which ended up with further destabilization and blood-shed in addition, sparked fears and violence in Afghanistan.

Doha conference

In July the 7th 2019 Germany and Qatar hosted a conference in Doha Qatar, which was labeled intra-afghan dialogue. The hosting countries endeavored to bring about a framework in order to support the peace process in Afghanistan. In accordance with the joint statement, that the country is at a central crossroad to snatch the chance to accomplish peace, so the shortest concord linking the afghan adversary groups could be one of the essential factors of any process leading to such an objective.

It was also expect, that the conference would contribute to confidence-building amid chief rivals to hold up peace and constancy in Afghanistan. Although the conference did not have a tangible agenda, but at the end a resolution was released calling for reducing violence, avoiding to assail public institution and bringing civilian causalities to “zero”.  Despite the efforts of the conference hosting countries, the conference comprised inadequacies; the Afghan government, which ought to be the main party, was excluded from the direct-intra-afghan-dialogue.

Not only the ceasefire, which has been the only wish of the Afghans, was not sincerely addressed, but also no-part of the outlined resolution has been implemented. Regrettably convening of the conference did not put into practice the expectations of the Afghan people, so that the security situation fundamentally deteriorated.  

The third Bonn conference

Subsequent, to the walk out of the US president from the Afghan peace deal, Germany wants to jump in exerting its leverage to bring the Afghan rivalry bodies to the negotiation table. Germany is really concerned, if the US troops withdrawal will take place Kabul government would collapse and the positive developments have so far came about would be lost. Thus Markus Potzel Germany’s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, since some times endeavors to hold meetings with the representatives of both Taliban and the Afghan government, in order to initiate another round of peace talks.  

 Consequently, If Germany genuinely put forth its efforts, it will help to avoid political vacuum in Kabul, let the democratization process to flourish, women rights to thrive and the economic prosperity to boom. Germany enjoys full-scale leverage in the entire region and beyond, because Germany stationed the second largest troops in Afghanistan, the country is one of the main initiator of the NATO Resolute Support Mission for Afghanistan and it is one of the top 10 contributors to the reconstruction process and humanitarian assistance in the country.

Germany has very good diplomatic relations with almost all of the surrounding countries of Afghanistan; it has influence on all of the gulf countries including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE, which are supposed to be the major patrons of Taliban.

In addition, Germany leads the EU commission and it is the number one economy in Europe and number 4 economy in the world. If it will put in 2% of its GDP to the NATO annual budget, Germany would be the second leverage enjoyer within NATO following the United States of America. So Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany (cnt-alliance) express the need for the initiation of the third Bonn conference, which should include all opponents to be brought to the negotiation table, in order to form a framework of lasting peace, continuation of the political process, stability, Good and lean governance, economic prosperity, revival of democratic norms and revamping of human and women rights as well as confidence building amongst regional countries.   

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Popularity-Graph of PM Imran Khan has not dropped down

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Although the economy of Pakistan has deteriorated, price hike, increase in utility bills, food prices and consumer prices of daily used items has grown up, the job market has deteriorated. According to a survey, mostly people are complaining about price-hike and the unavailability of jobs. Some people are complaining about the bad practice of nepotism and especially targeting “hired electable and technocrats”. It is a fact that the PTI government has failed to meet the expectations of its voters. PTI workers and supporters have been cornered and ignored.

What so ever the government is presenting economic parameters, to defend themselves. What so ever reasons or logic and explanation are provided by the Government to defend themselves? How much blame is put on previous governments, but the failure of the PTI government cannot be justified. The common man in Pakistan is a victim and suffering.

Yet, the popularity of Prime Minister Imran Khan has not deteriorated. According to a small scale survey, the public will vote for Imran Khan in the next general election. As per Survey, no one was willing to accept Maulana Fazl-u-Rehman, leader of JUI-F, as prime Minister of Pakistan. The popularity of PPP and PML-N has also deteriorated sharply.

Strange! It is really very strange, while people are complaining about the performance of PTI Government, but still, praise PM Imran Khan. Some people blame his team, while other analyses as the nature of issues inherited by the previous government are so complex that no one can manage quickly. It might take more time to reach any conclusion and favors that the PTI government should complete its term of 5 years and wait till 2023, for the general election.

Pakistan is a democratic country and the constitution of Pakistan protects the right of every citizen to protest, express his/her opinion, criticize the government and its policies, can organize any procession, demonstration or Dahrna – sit-in.  “Azadi March” is permissible in our system and legal, and the government has not offered any resistance in it. The government will not disturb them as long as they stay within the law and peaceful.

Such agitations are part of the Pakistani political system and has a long history. Whenever some of the political parties lose in the election, they blame the winner party or ruling party for rigging and asks them to resign and dissolve assemblies. Even the currently ruling party PTI has been protesting the Government in 2014 and so on. But history has witnessed, no Prime Minister one prime Minister resigned or assemblies dissolved in past as a result of opposition pressure. It is expected, that this time also the PM will not resign, and not dissolve the assemblies.

However, the opposition always gains millage and concessions through negotiations and deals. This time is also no exception and it is guessed that some way out will be explored soon.

But there is a lesson for PM, to pay more attention to the issues of the common man in Pakistan. He has to give due importance to PTI workers and supporters. He must respect the merit and create opportunities for qualified people.

There are 1.5 million fresh graduates every year entering the job market, but the creation of jobs is not in accordance with it. As a result, youth are desperate and unfortunately may involve in negative activities. It is worth mentioning that the biggest vote bank and political force for PM Imran Khan were “Youth”. Pakistan’s demography consists of 70% of youth under the age of 40.

It is suggested that PM may take serious notice of the ground situation. Realize the problems of the common man in Pakistan. May initiate major structural changes and deep reforms in all dimensions.

Pakistan possesses huge potential for growth if enabling environments are provided and right policies are implemented, there is no reason that Pakistan’s economy take-off rapidly.

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Pakistan,a Victim of Vicious Circle: The Container Politics

Asad Ullah

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It’s pretty tough to comprehend Pakistan’s politics or the behavior of Pakistan’s political leaders. The example of Pakistan’s political system and politicians can be tacit with Robert Jervis’s astounding words. “When you pick up one piece of this planet, you find that one way or another, it’s attached to everything else-if you jiggle over here, something is going to wiggle over there… We need this sense of the continuing interconnectedness of the system as part of the common knowledge so that politicians feel it and believe it, and so that voters feel it and believe it, and so that kids feel it and believe it so that they’ll grow up with an ethic.”

Since 1947 Pakistan is trapped in a vicious circle, and it’s hard to get rid of this wicked circle with the current political system. Immense tension with neighbor countries, internal political instability, high inflation rate, massive unemployment, poverty, discrimination, corruption, human rights violation, economic problem, low level of domestic and foreign direct investment, energy shortage, wrecked infrastructure, weak and self-centered political leader ruined the country. Now we are witnessing a massive number of lessening faiths on the institutions of almost all kinds. People don’t trust the government; they don’t believe any corporation and virtually no political leader — the reasons why people’s trust is declining in government. The govern leaders do not fulfill their promises, they always raise different slogans spreading fake news to convince the voters for votes, but things are not still the same after elections; all the obligations remain broken. Thus, people certainly don’t believe politicians.

After 71 years of a bumpy hard and tough journey, the people of Pakistan in 2018 elected a new prime minister with much new hope, to fight against corruption and other serious challenges. This hope was up to the greatest extent achieved when the supreme court of Pakistan took action against the corrupt leaders and imprisoned them. With such enormous weight, the oppositions are now vindicating a mean to get rid of the present administration; the adversaries have started a long march called Azadi-March, with the aim to takeover Khan’s (Imran Khan Niazi current Prime minister of Pakistan) government. The majority of the people are against the so-called Azadi-March, as they are aware of situations. To sidetrack Imran Khan’s consideration, these opposition leaders have started Azadi-March, where thousands of protestors are marching to the capital city Islamabad, calling on prime minister Khan over the weak and fragile economy and corruption.

Some religious groups organized the Azadi-March and political rivals, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F) party prearranged the protests, almost all parties have used the march to show their complaints throughout what they call the Azadi March (or Freedom March).The main aim of the Azadi-March, calling Imran Khan to resign, they believe that the current government ruined to satisfy their promises, and the administration is amateurish, inexpert, and doesn’t distinguish how the state-run. While addressing the people, Fazal said all Pakistani, from Karachi to Islamabad, want that prime minister Imran Khan should resign, further stated that prime minister still has time to deferentially submit his resignation because the Pakistani will not give him also time to do so.

The purpose behind such Azadi-March isn’t only that they want to overthrow the prime minister, but they want him to stop disparaging the adversaries. The opponents, according to most of the local people, are corrupt and crooked, and they are responsible for the country’s weak institution and corruption. Since now, Khan is taking legal actions against the oppositions with the support of millions of Pakistani people, thus permit the opponents formed a coalition to stand against Khan. With the help of millions of people Khan isn’t against their Azadi-March, but it’s something everyone knows, the country is going through tough time, skirmishes with India and recently with Afghanistan, ongoing economic reforms, working to encourage tourists and foreign direct investment, and many other developmental projects, such actions or the so-called Azadi-March will ruin the hope of the current administration and people. The immediate adverse consequence of the Azadi-March is also on the recent Kashmir issue. Currently, the prime minister and his administration are working to find a solution for IOK,by voicing on a different medium, such domestic scuffle will not only hamper the objective but will instead encourage the neighbor states to take advantage of domestic unrest.

The time being Khan is dealing with massive problems, the oppositions should stand with Khan, instead of creating other domestic violence and discontent. The continues Azadi-March will do nothing more than internal turbulence and other dangerous predicaments that will hit the country with more severe difficulties. Democracy means the government of the people, by the people, for the people, which specify that the people of Pakistan elect the current government. Pakistan is a democratic country where people can choose any leader they trust. To make it more vibrant, Pakistan is not the legacy of some elites to govern all the time.

A country with more than 200 million people ought to decide their future; they should stand with Khan and support his campaign of fighting against corruption and corrupt people to bring peace, political stability, economic development, and employment opportunities. Fora very long time, we have experienced different government and their fake promises; they have tumble-down the state’s institutions, nepotism, favoritism, and cronyism, all were the hidden agendas of the previous government. Thus, it is clear that the present government is fighting against all the above problems.

Finally, let us begin anew — recalling the current Azadi-March, which is not a sign of being active or reliable, but rather a sign of weakness. Sincerity is always subject to proof, and when you don’t have a single proof, you are lucky enough to have needles in your chopsticks. Let us never negotiate with these political leaders who are involved in the march out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.

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