Osama Rizvi

Osama Rizvi

Independent Economic Analyst, Writer and Editor. Contributes columns to different newspapers. He is a columnist for Oilprice.com, where he analyzes Crude Oil and markets. Also a sub-editor of an online business magazine and a Guest Editor in Modern Diplomacy.

His interests range from Economic history to Classical literature.

In my latest article I mentioned the factors one needs to keep an eye on to track the trajectory of oil prices, for the rest of the year . Geopolitics, of-course, was one of them. Keeping this factor aside, there has not been any significant development pertaining to oil as to affect the prices substantially.

A hermit kingdom where government officials flatter their leader with odd songs. A lady in pink, in an enthusiastic tone, announcing some “successful” missile test or the video of the test it-self is the most we get to see of it. North Korea is a different country. Criticism and sanctions has done little to stop its ambitious nuclear program.  

China and India. Home to the world’s largest population and vying to overtake other in the race for economic ascent, military might and regional supremacy. Mr. Xi and Mr. Modi both are gung-ho to attract investment, diversify their economies and ramp up military. China is viewed as one amongst the world leaders whereas India is on its way to become one. However, this competition calls for tensions and conflicts.

Despite seven weeks of inventory withdrawals, the global oil market has failed to translate this effect into a sustainable and significant oil price increase.  Doubts remain.  As reported, OPEC production has edged up. The compliance rate among OPEC and NOPEC members of the Vienna deal, extended to March 2018, has fallen. US production has added more barrels to global production.

The winds blowing from the Indian Ocean towards sub-continent brings along the southwest monsoon season in Pakistan. Now-a-days, dark clouds gather all of a sudden on the horizon, giving an impression that a storm is coming. But hitherto there only have been pleasant showers. However, on the political horizon things are different.

G
one are the days to fret over the fact that you have no car and the weather is perfect to dine out tonight. Call yourself an Uber. If you are in China Didi will work. Peer to peer lending, fashion sites like Le Tote allowing women to “rent designer gowns for a special event at a fraction of the price of buying a new one” and Neighborgoods that allow you to borrow resources are changing the way we use to do and perceive business.

I
n my last article I covered different prospects/facets that signaled towards the extension of an oil deal. Of late there are developments that not only serve as a testimony to the possibility of an extension but also its probable segue into the year 2018 (until March).

I
t has been a topsy-turvy story for the most traded and (politically and economically) significant commodity in the world. Welcome to the world of Crude Oil. Back in 2014 when the war between Sheikhs and Shale begun, Saudi Arabia deliberately balked to play the role of, what has been called, Swing Producer of the world. By refusing to turn off the taps Saudis envisaged a future that will, acting out of the principle of survival of the fittest, drive out high-cost producers (most importantly US Shale).

First Brexit, then Trump. The elections in Netherlands, recently, gave a breather to nationalism. But then the tide of nationalism bestrode the Middle-East. The victim was India. There were symptoms similar to the above victims. Like US and EU who want to be the champion of global trade and global diversification, India tries to imitate the same.

I
t has not been a happy story hitherto for oil markets as the prices continue to be under pressure. The recent inventory build-up of 5million barrels has once again made the total number of stock piles touching a historic high i.e. 533 million.

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