On Saturday, September 10, between Geneva and Munich, the traditional venues for the numberless negotiations on war in Syria, the US State Secretary, John Kerry, and the Russian Foreign Minister, Serghei Lavrov, reached an agreement for truce among the various factions fighting for the spoils of the Middle East State. The agreement will enter into force as from the sunset of September 12 and it will last one week only.
Iran is going to presidential poll in May 2017. Former Iranian hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who held office from 2005 to 2013, has announced that he will run in the spring 2017 presidential election, is expected to launch his comeback campaign. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is trying to make a political comeback, signaled his desire to return to politics in April and attacked current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as incompetent.
Not at all! Not an illusion, at least for time being. Russo-Iran relations are steadily growing and deepening. Moscow and Teheran are changing from the pragmatic business model of "armament supplier-buyer" to military cooperation. The closer cooperation serves both to target opponents of Assad – some of them backed by the USA – while also sending a sharp message to the US as fighting over the divided city of Aleppo reaches a critical point after five years of inconclusive civil war.
The effects of the Skyes-Picot Agreement are still being felt today. It is true that the modern Middle East is a house built by the Europeans but it sits on the foundations of the Ottoman Empire. The history of the Middle East has been characterised by authoritarian regimes and religious zealots, however the Arab Spring has proved otherwise.
The Middle East is undergoing major whirlwinds of change. Two major events in recent weeks are about to bring tectonic shifts in Middle Eastern politics. While the region is known for its continuous turbulence and fickleness, nevertheless certain epochal events can change the tide and trajectory of the region and its politics.
It is a recognized reality that the Middle East is divided into two greater blocs, where Syria, Iraq & Hezbollah are spearheaded by Iran (often addressed as shia bloc) and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey & Qatar are spearheaded by Saudi Arabia (often addressed as sunni bloc). However, a new reality is trending.
Robert A. Heinlein's assertion "A generation which ignores history has no past; and no future," is a good starter to understand the issue of the Vienna Agreement. After the Munich Agreement was signed, in September 1938, Britain and France deliberately abandoned Czechoslovakia to Hitler, believing this was the only way to save the world from another war. However, Winston Churchill: "“You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war. ”Exactly as in 1938, Obama had to choose between dishonor and war, and he chose dishonor. Now we all will have both the dishonor and the war.
The 2016 elections presents a divergence in US foreign policy between the two major candidates. On one hand is the continuance of the status-quo by Hilary Clinton, who is pushing for a value-based foreign policy, as all presidents have done for decades while Donald Trump is looking for a shift in US foreign policy that hearkens backs to a time when the US was less interventionist and more explicit about its interests rather than claiming to cultivate democratic governments.