T
urkey has been suffering from terrorism for a long time, losing over 40,000 people in the last 40 years. When the Syrian uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad began in 2011, Turkey was enjoying a peaceful era with the least causalities lost to terrorism in its recent history. However, this less-violent period quickly started to deteriorate due to new regional conflicts and Turkey’s flawed domestic and international policies.

Published in Intelligence

L
ibya is planning to double its crude oil production next year. Although it has been an OPEC member since 1962, as well as the African country with the largest (and best quality) oil reserves, for obvious geopolitical reasons it has not been involved in the recent agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which favours the Russian Federation, reconnects Russia to Saudi Arabia, thus avoiding too close a link between Russia and Iran, and make Russia play a primary broker’s role in the Middle East.

Published in Middle East

T
he Syrian civil war has been raging for close to six years, fueled by a tangled web of alliances, the regional ambitions of foreign powers, and an increasingly bitter power struggle between various armed rebel and Islamist groups. The conflict has claimed an estimated 400,000 lives in that time, but there are signs that the fighting may be tenuously coming to an end due—in part—to an unlikely détente between Turkey and Russia.

Published in Russia

Authors: Matthew Crosston & Kagusthan Ariaratnam

A
merican political scientist Joseph Nye wrote in his famous book, “Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics,” that political or social power can influence others to get them to behave in ways that you want by either coercion and/or payment - elements of hard power - or through attraction and/or persuasion - the foundations of soft power.

Published in Intelligence

T
he agreement between the Libyan factions signed in Morocco on December 17, 2015 has not been implemented yet. It implied an enlightened "process of national reconciliation" - obviously bottom-up - that no one wanted to put in place while bullets were whizzing and the self-styled "Caliphate" of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi established itself in the Sirte region.

Published in Middle East

I
n reading Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) of the ongoing counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Syria, and Libya, I have noticed a pattern in Islamic State’s “modus operandi”, that of an analogical spider.

Published in Intelligence

A
s defining terrorism in any particular case implies a political component, this very category becomes quite extensive - a subject to different readings and understandings. Having permanent – primarily political – disputes over the category and scale of ‘conflict’, contemporary international community repeatedly failed over decades to agree upon a single and comprehensive but universal instrument determining, prescribing and combating terrorism.

Published in Central Asia

F
rom Friday, January 20th 2017. the United States have a new President – for many, not only in America, still at least controversial and in the extreme version: totally unacceptable Donald John Trump. In a precise ceremony in front of the Congress Trump gave his oath and delivered his first speech as head of state. And for everybody who is not biased or has not become prisoner of prejudices, he announced a complete turn in regard to the US policy, as it was until now.

Published in Americas
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