The number of disputes has risen over the decades in the region known for dynamic economy, competition, rich waters, possible big oil and gas reserves, important international roads, global trade flows, distrust, inability to define territory boundaries and lack of share of information between countries. Various actions, including harassing vessels, blockading islets and shoals and destroying equipment have increased diplomatic tensions.
A dispute over Kuril Islands is the reason why Russia and Japan still after more than 70 years have not signed a peace treaty to end the World War II. Could compromise about so long stagnating conflict which was so far discussed by Gorbachev, Yeltsin and also by Putin, be found this year during Russian planned visit in Japan?
Geopolitics: enmity, rapprochement, concrete political or military decisions besides straightforward interests are often based on perceptions and influenced by the (lack of) understanding of the counterpart. That is what call the geopolitics of perceptions which is probably more important than we think. It is true in the Sino-European relations that have a long history.
In the nineteenth century Europe's key cultural impact on China has probably been its influence in modernizing the Chinese state. In the 1870s and 1880s, Chinese engineers who visited Europe realized in no time that Europe's successes were not just due to technological advances but were more deeply rooted.
“I predict that it is in Asia where the fate of the future will be decided.”-Tsar Alexander III
Needless to say, forecasts are extremely difficult to make in international relations, and all the more so when so many factors are in play. The author does not have any special information that he could use to forecast the future. The different miniscenarios are very wide and therefore any of these could reasonably, or unreasonably, be expected to occur.