The Iraqi parliament voted by majority to reject the Kurdish referendum on the independence that holds on September 25 and authorized the Prime Minister Haider Abadi to take measures that preserve the unity of the country. Off course, measures do not include military actions against and clash with the Peshmerga forces, simply because it will be against Iraqi constitution and bilateral conventions between the United States and Iraq.

The international community is also announced illegality and illegitimacy of the referendum and urged the Kurdish leaders to solve the problems and issues with the Iraqi government through dialogue. On the other hand, the foreign ministers of Iraq, Turkey and Iran agreed on the unconstitutionality of the referendum in Kurdistan, warning against taking countermeasures in coordination with each other, without specifying their nature, because it will cause conflicts in the region to be difficult to contain, and confirmed their strong commitment to preserving Iraq's political unity and territorial integrity. Additionally, the United Nations Security Council announced its opposition to the referendum on independence by the Kurdistan region of Iraq, warned that such a unilateral move would destabilize and reiterated its adherence to Iraq's sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.

The Kurdish referendum throws up questions about the future of the Kurdistan region and its political ties with Baghdad. Thus, what will be the best future ties between Baghdad and Erbil? Is federation still workable? Or Confederation will be the best alternative?

Federalism, like the legal system, is based on clear constitutional rules that guarantee the coexistence of different nationalities, religions, sects, and groups within a single state run by constitutional institutions in the states of law. The Iraqi constitution recognizes the federal system to determine the form of the relationship between the Kurdistan region and Baghdad or between the regions that may be formed later, but the Kurdistan Regional Government accuses its federal counterpart of trying to monopolize power and not to give constitutional powers to the region and the Iraqi provinces, which led to disputes and conflicts between the two sides during the years following the adoption of the Constitution. The implementation of the federal option faces the challenge, the distribution, and sharing of resources and revenues as oil plays a very important role and will remain a central element in the division of sects and ethnics. The marginalization of the Sunnis by the Shiite-led government has contributed to raising insurgency and the takeover of many cities in Iraq, especially Mosul by the terrorists. Overlooking constitution in regarding Kurdish rights and demands has pushed the Kurdistan region to move unilaterally, and hold independence referendum to decide the fate of Kurds in Iraq.  

This referendum can restructure the relationship between the KRG and Baghdad, through adjusting a new form of political system "confederation" between the Kurdistan region and Iraq. If there have two/more confederation states, there will have three equal capitals that do not exceed one another, indicating that, this will put an end to years of conflict and violence. Confederations are often established by treaty between confederation members who enjoy equal status.

The Kurdistan Region may possibly consider put forward a confederation with Baghdad,‏ as it will be a smooth mechanism to separate the Kurds from, and this for many reasons, including:

Either as a transitional arrangement between the both sides. As a transitional measure, this would give Iraqis time to adjust to Iraqi Kurdistan's eventual independence.

Because it deems independence to be impractical given the regional opposition.

Confederations would create breathing space as Iraqis gradually redefine their relations with one another, aggregating interests to achieve greater self-rule through the formation of states: one Kurdish, one Sunni, and one or more Shiite regions.

The Republic of Kurdistan is an autonomous and completed institutionally and capability, but it also suffers from the monopolistic despotism of the Barzani Party and the Talabani Party since 1991. Nevertheless, before this republic is recognized by Iraq and as part of it should solve all the issues that related to the resources and borders, particularly the disputed areas.

Disputed areas, especially Kirkuk, is completely different from the reality of the other three Kurdish provinces because Kirkuk is home to multiple communities in Iraq, several of whom were systematically expelled from the region under the Ba'ath regime, and cannot resolve the issue of subordination to Iraq or the region through proportional voting, because this solution undermine the rights of half the population of Kirkuk - or a little less - non-Kurds, and vital to be Kirkuk a special situation to be agreed upon between Iraq and the region. It has written about several alternatives, including Kirkuk as an independent province or the division of the province between its components in a municipality between a Kurdish municipality and a non-Kurdish municipality, or the option of joint sovereignty by Baghdad and Erbil. Though, after protecting the areas and taking part in September 25th referendum (which 92.73% of voters cast ‘yes' ballots) on support for independence from Iraq, it is difficult to Kurdistan region move back to share sovereignty by the Iraqi government.

However, amending the Iraqi Constitution to ensure the establishment of a Confederal system as the best solution for Iraq, pointing out that it will end the problems between the sects and groups in Iraq, mainly in the disputed areas.

In post-2003 Iraqi political situation has not changed anything and remained problems and differences are stuck between Baghdad and Erbil. Thus, the confederation will solidify the principles of democracy and prevents the occurrence of conflicts and draw the boundaries between regions (North, Middle, and South) while maintaining the national identity and historical privacy of the segments and components in the community all, noting that it can encircle the problems that arise between governments. So that the application of the confederation in Iraq, "very important", because it is a permanent union of sovereign states and joint action among governments within one union through international treaties, the adoption of a common constitution, dealing with the common currency, stabilizing borders and resolving disputes in accordance with the will of peoples, away from the hierarchy of power and dominance.

The confederation also does not give the possibility for divisions, indicating that it encourages the construction, development, and reform of the states (regions) and generate citizens of various components sense of belonging and stability.

Confederation is, however, difficult to achieve. Constitutional changes require a referendum and approval by the majority of voters. Any three governorates can defeat a referendum on a constitutional amendment with a two-thirds vote.

 To sum, the post-September 25th Kurdistan situation will never be the same as past. Obviously, the federation is not successful in Iraq; the Kurdish referendum brings a new debate about the future ties between Kurdistan region and Baghdad. Kurdish leaders have had absolute overwhelming yes support for independence for Iraq, but they will be agreed on remaining in a confederation union with the Iraqi government.  Predictably, this will be the start point of future dialog between the both sides.   

Farhad H. Abdullah

Farhad H. Aabdullah obtained his MA in Strategic and Defense Studies at Malaya University in Malaysia. Farhad is currently a lecturer at the University of Sulaimani, Faculty of Law and Politics, Department of Politics and International Relations. He has published policy papers in Modern Diplomacy, Masher Politics & Culture, Journal, and Foreign Policy News. He is a Strategic expert and observer on Kurdish affairs.

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