Crude Oil Bearishness Is Here To Stay

Despite seven weeks of inventory withdrawals, the global oil market has failed to translate this effect into a sustainable and significant oil price increase.  Doubts remain.  As reported, OPEC production has edged up. The compliance rate among OPEC and NOPEC members of the Vienna deal, extended to March 2018, has fallen. US production has added more barrels to global production.

Lastly, the speculation about oil demand peaking in 20 or 30 years due to the rise of EVs and renewable energy further suggests an on-going softening of crude prices.

Considering the factors above, it is highly probable that oil markets, in the near future, will remain bearish and prices range bound until or unless there is a drastic change in world oil consumption (Demand) and/or deeper cuts by OPEC-NOPEC members (supply).

Last week oil inventories dropped by 8.9 million barrels as reported by the EIA.  But the huge inventory withdraw failed to impact oil prices in the same way as did the build-up of same quantity of barrels last year when oil prices took a deep plunge on the news. The fact is that markets have now realized that inventory withdraws-  amplified due to the summer driving season which normally sees gasoline demand pick up - are only a temporary relief and that there is no certainty that after summer driving season is over the inventories will not start ballooning up anew.  Such doubts are not unfounded.  We have seen that despite production cuts pledged in November 2016, and the extension of that very deal to March 2018, oil prices have remained at a sub-$55 level.

Of course, rising US production has been a constant factor influencing the effectiveness of the cuts, as the US was able to produce almost an equivalent amount of production that the OPEC-NOPEC producers decided to cut in 2016.   A rising US rig count and an uptick in E&P budgets was a sign of confidence in US oil producers.  According to the latest reports, production has added another 79,000 barrels making the total figure stand at 9.5 million barrels per day.  Only just one year ago the figure was 8 million barrels.  One can see, quite vividly, how US production has been a cause of concern for global crude markets.  The argument that US producers are starting  to feel the pain of low oil prices is difficult to buy when companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron and Eni posted profits in the second quarter of this year.  Exxon’s profits nearly doubled while Eni and Royal Dutch Shell reported strong profits as well.  These results signal that the oil and gas industry has started to recover from lower oil prices over the past three years. According to an article in the Financial Times, “Lydia Rainforth, analyst at Barclays, said such earnings offered reassurance to oil investors that “the sector works at $50 per barrel”, referring to the level where crude prices have largely swung this year.”  

According to a new report from Haynes & Boone oil bankruptcies have slowed down in 2017 with only 14 companies filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy from 50 in the same period in 2016. Another sign that corroborates the recovery process in US Shale industry.  The rig count, at 768, is highest since April 2015 as well.  According to Rex Preston Stoner, an energy analyst with HUB International, the US rig count is a useful barometer of the health of the US oil & gas sector but such health is unevenly distributed with stronger drilling contractors – such as Helmerich & Payne – pulling through this downturn while smaller drilling contractors still struggling.

The IEA has raised concerns concerning demand growth and the OPEC compliance rate which can prolong a much-needed act of re-balancing.  The compliance rate has slipped to 75%.  Oil prices have fallen 9% this year on suspicions that OPEC and NOPEC members are not doing enough to drain the glut.  The United Kingdom, France and India are mulling decisions to ban sales of EVs in the future.  According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, electric vehicles may displace 2 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2023.  While this may be an exaggeration, the threat of EVs to the hydrocarbon industry is not to be ignored.  It may be not a matter of if but when.   In the long term, the rise of EVs is certainly predicted to disturb the oil consumption pattern of the global transport sector.

crudeoil

From the height of triple-digit prices ($140) some years ago, oil has fallen to a range of $40-$55 (touching $26 in January, 2016).  US oil production is expected to rise in the future as well – perhaps exceeding 10 million barrels per day.  According to the IEA,  US production will grow by 117,000 barrels in September as compared to August.  Determination among OPEC members to keep cuts on production is wavering as members have not seen any benefit to their output cuts. Accordingly, the outlook for oil is not strong.  In light of all these factors, one can easily sense prevailing market bearishness in the future to come.  Oil prices are expected to remain ‘range bound.’

More in this category: « Sharing the Economy
Osama Rizvi

Independent Economic Analyst, Writer and Editor. Contributes columns to different newspapers. He is a columnist for Oilprice.com, where he analyzes Crude Oil and markets. Also a sub-editor of an online business magazine and a Guest Editor in Modern Diplomacy.

His interests range from Economic history to Classical literature.

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