S
yria has been passing through the throes of civil war. Due to this crisis, out of approximately 23 million Syrian population, about 500.000 people have been killed. The Syrian refugee crisis has been conceived more critical in the post-World War-II era. About 7 million people have been displaced internally, and about 3 million people had left the country,

Turkey being the largest refugee-hosting country. Currently, Syria has lost infrastructure, economy, along with exponential increasing poverty sans basic necessities. Although, the Syrian crisis has started at the local level, but now it has taken the shape of a global problem.

Currently, the Syrian War has been divided into major two groups, one led by the US and the other one by Russia. Most of the countries from the Middle East Asia have joined the US group, and some of the countries from the same region have joined the Russia side to oppose and support the Syrian regime. On 6th April 2017, the US attacked Syria’s Shayrat Airbase by 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Russia has warned the US with grave consequences if these attacks will continue. Many electronic and print media reports anticipating that it could turn into a World War-III. The main focus of this piece is to see, what shape it could take and how it can be sorted out?  

What is a Syrian Crisis?

Though the Syrian minorities had played a pivotal role in the liberation of it from the millennium subjugation, but these minorities (Sunni Islam -68.4%; Shia Islam -3.2%; Alawism -11.3%; Druze -3.2%; Nusayrism -1.3%; Alevism -0.7%; Yazidism -0.2%; Christianity -11.2%; Others -0.5%) have felt betrayed upon taking over the Assad regime by the Baath Party under the leadership of Hafez al-Assad (1970-2000). Assad’s long reign of authoritarianism and totalitarianism since the 1970s, characterized by the lack of political freedoms, high unemployment, limited opportunities for upward mobility, corruption, nepotism, and exponential growing poverty which had fuelled the public disgruntlement. The Sunni people (74%), have been ruled by an Assad family belongs to a minority -the Alawites (11.3%), a part of the Shia sect. Moreover, Arab Spring and successful boisterous demonstration and protests in Egypt, Tunisia, and in other neighboring countries have encouraged the Syrian people to rise against the authoritarianism regime. The peaceful demonstrations against the incumbent regime of Bashar al-Assad (2000-till date), has been started in March 2011 as the Syrians were encouraged and inspired by the successful protest marches against the governments of Egypt, Tunisia, and several other Arab states.

Syrian War –A Humanitarian Crisis

The unrest has been started on 15 March 2011. The boisterous demonstrations and protests have organized by the rebel groups, demanding the oust of the President Bashar al-Assad along with the relinquishment of political power by the Ba'ath Party, which has been ruling Syria since 1971.

To pacify the protests and demonstrations by the rebels, the Syrian Army was deployed in April 2011. In reciprocation, the Syrian Army has opened the fires on civilian protesters. As the suppressions ensued, some of the Syrian Army officers had formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA). It was formed with the objectives of protecting the Syrian people from the Assad regime’s suppression and repression and overthrowing the totalitarianism government. The law and order situation had deteriorated into a complete armed rebellion. Now, the Syrian crisis has been involving two groups. On the one hand, the incumbent government led by Bashar al –Assad has been supported by the Russia, Iran, China and Hezbollah (Shi'a Islamist militant group and political party based in Lebanon ) and wheras on the contrary, liberal groups like Free Syrian Army, Southern Front Forces, Army of Islam, and Kurdish Forces fighing against the Assad regime supported by the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries. The terrorist groups like Al-Nusrah Front (A Syrian Al-Qaeda branch) and ISIS have also been fighting against the Syrian regime

After the World War-II, the Syrian crisis has been known as the biggest humanitarian crisis. More than half of the population has been one or the other way has been affected by the crisis. As per the reports of the UNHRC, the war crimes have been committed against the Syrian people. The violations of human rights and crimes against the Syrian people included such as murders, atrocities, rapes and enforced disappearances. The civilian peoples have been denied the access to the food, water, and health services along with sexual violence throughout the war by the rebels as well as the authoritarian regime. There are an approximately 1/3 of the Syrian population have been displaced internally. About 4.1 million people had fled to neighbouring countries, including Jordan and Turkey, to escape the violence since 2011.

Is it a Beginning of the Third World War?

Now the major question arises, does the Syrian Civil War become a launching platform for the World War-III? The US has been standing with the Syrian rebel groups with a programme of “train and equip.” The countries such as the UK, France, and Saudi Arabia are standing with the US side. On the other hand, Russia and Iran have been supporting the Syrian government with strategic support. China is also helping Syria and supporting countries by providing diplomatic support.

A chemical attack by the Assad government in Idlib province in which 80 people have been killed, invited the US missile attack on 6 April 2017. Even the US President gave future actions indication by saying that “something should happen” to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad being responsible for the heinous attack. It shows the paradigmatic shift in the Trumps’ Syrian policy. It was further substantiated by the statement of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, wherein he said, Assad would have “no role” in the Syrian government and “steps are underway” to oust him.

The supporter countries of the Assad regime took a serious note of the US missile attack on 7 April, 2017. Russia has issued a stern warning to the US by saying that further such actions would seriously challenge the global security. Moreover, the Russian FM Sergey Lavrov hosted his Syrian and Iranian counterparts in Moscow to review the prevalent situation. Lavrov said, "We call on the US and its allies to respect Syria's sovereignty and refrain from actions similar to what happened on April 7, and which have serious ramifications not only for regional but also global security.”

Some strategic thinkers and senior journalists are of the opinion that involvement of the major powers in the Syrian conflict could turn into to a third world war. Turkey was of the firm opinion that the world would entrap into a global conflict, had America and Russia not restricted themselves in the Syrian conflict. The Daily Mail quoted Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus, wherein he said, "If this proxy war continues, after this, let me be clear, America and Russia will come to the point of the war." Many strategic thinkers, commentators, politician etc. have expressed concerns over the engagements of major powers in Syrian crisis and consequent evolving situation.

At last, it is concluded that if this crisis lingers on, then it would have serious consequence not only the regional security but at the global level as well. It has also been affecting seriously the Syrian people, who have been obligated to lead a miserable life. They have been living a life of refugees, a life sans education, health, and many other basic needs. It is, therefore, recommended that the major powers should try to ferret out the solution to the crisis through the dialogues and deliberations. Use of the military option (missile attack/s is/are not the solution. Double standard policies by the major powers related to political regime/counter-terrors to be avoided. Like a war, if Syrian crisis turned into, would have grave consequences for regional security. Thus, the neighboring countries are exhorted to restrain the geopolitical entanglement in the crisis. A regional approach to the crisis would be an option. Moreover, the Syrian government should make some adjustable changes in the political system to avoid the unwanted interferences on the part of the major powers. A solution to the Syrian crisis could avert the probability of turning it into a major war!!  

Dr. Bawa Singh

Dr. Bawa Singh is teaching in the Centre for South and Central Asian Studies, School of Global Relations, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, India-151001. bawasingh73[at]gmail.com

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