I
ndia’s willingness to pursue a Ballistic Missile Defense shield was justified by a number of reasons, like its desire for global power status, using China as a bogey for this and to counter an imminent threat from Pakistan or all of these. Aside, the United States’s intention to extend BMD to its emerging allies i.e. India is laden with serious repercussions for Pakistan and China. According to a recent study by South Asia Analysis Group, this region has almost one-third of the total ballistic missile capability present in the world.

India has a dubious No First Use nuclear doctrine by retaining a right to use it against any perceived threats. A US-sponsored BMD will surely alter the deterrence capability in India’s favor. Indian BMD will also start an arms race in the region and would reduce the chances of drawing a conclusion on a fissile materials cut-off treaty (FMCT). Supposedly, If Pakistan needs ‘X’ number of missiles for its targeting strategy, it shall need X+3 missiles for defeating an anti-ballistic missile system. That would, in turn, incentivize Pakistan to produce more fissile material.

India’s pursuit of the BMD and the fact that Pakistan is not safe from the missile threats originating from India compels Pakistan to look for other security options. To counter India’s BMD, which is still in development, Pakistan on 24 January conducted a successful test flight of the Ababeel surface-to-surface ballistic missile capable of delivering multiple warheads using Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technologies.

The testing of Ababeel with the range of 2,200 kilometers have accomplished fundamental innovative and strategic feet by reinforcing capability to counter an active BMD. The testing of MIRV technology enabled Pakistan to become the seventh country in the world to own the particular technology. Now for India, the cost of keeping up a compelling defense against MIRVs would fundamentally increment with respect to military and financial terms. Indian BMD system from onwards has to acquire the capability for executing the successful interception of each incoming offensive missile. The protecting side additionally needs to consider the likelihood of hit per interceptor, and there is ambiguity involves whether the warhead is a fake or not, thus diminishing the adequacy of BMD system.

Most of the international analysts have contended that acquiring BMD will reinforce destabilization and that it could bring about an arms race in South Asia. They contend that BMD can change the basic concepts of nuclear deterrence and will give India a false sense of security and it may nudge it towards a first strike option. This is not certain whether this system has any utility against a nuclear attack as BMD is not war tested.

The vital pragmatic argument against the BMD is psychological confidence that the adequacy of a first strike indeterminate. Therefore, to shatter this confidence, enemies will probably create innovation to upset BMD frameworks and will likely develop technologies like larger arsenals, penetration devices, or countermeasures against BMD systems.

Acquiring a BMD system will strengthen the notion that presence of anti-missile shield will force the shielded state to adopt an offensive posture. The shielded state can also preempt an attack with the nuclear first strike while taking aggressive engagements on the false supposition that it is totally invulnerable to retaliation. In this context, Rajesh Basrur elaborated that:

“One critic observes that missile defense is not a truly defensive system, but is, in fact, a ‘means for bolstering offense’ with no design for disarmament, and Indian support for it shows that ‘[w]e have now deflected sharply from the elimination goalpost and are now adrift in the uncertain and dangerous course of a new weapon system.”

There was a need for Pakistan to enhance existing capabilities by including new technology for avoiding an Indian BMD and it has been displayed by Islamabad's trial of Ababeel test. Specifically, as BMD provide a false sense of security, India could opt preemptive first strike. Therefore, to counter this emerging threat Pakistan has to pace up its efforts to start from strengthening the silos – which is called point defense – and missile sites protection to the defense of corridors against possible attacks. Though Pakistan has taken economically efficient option to counter BMD, other powers (China) with greater resources will look for more offensive counter-strategies to penetrate the defensive shield of India. It is better New Delhi does not go down that course and avoid an unnecessary arms race.

Rabiyah Shafique holds MBA degree in Human Resource Management from BUITEMS, Quetta Baluchistan.

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