UK has always been an opponent toward the discussion about the supranational structure of EU. Since 1949, when Winston Churchill started the discussion about the Union, the position of Britain was prompt and opposed to federalism and supranationality.
In recent years, Europe, at the United Europe level and not just the eurozone, had to face political and economic financial crisis that threatened national economies of the EU. Building the solution, Commission and European Central Bank pioneered and evolved to the main pillars, forming a European support mechanism. This mechanism has taken economic decisions with a political formula, which were, first, entitled by the Commission and European Parliament and then were become state law on all EU national parliaments. The German vision of political integration, till federal integration, in EU and of transferring powers to democratically elected bodies such as the Commission (election of the President) and the European Parliament, began routed in a way.
Last summer (June 2015), when at the EU Summit, the third Memorandum and the bailout on Greece was discussed, the British side expressed clear disagreement with respect to the obligation of UK to contribute to this loan. Moreover, European Central Bank is autonomous and the central policy planning for the next period is the consolidation of the European banking system. Although UK does not have adopted the euro, the European System of Central Banks include both the European Central Bank and all the national central banks of the countries in EU, which leaves little room for the British side not to accept the side or main effects of bank consolidation on eurozone.
In other words, the political integration seems to start in a way, slowly and steadily, as slowly and steadily, eurozone and EU have evolved throughout the years.
For Britain, “Brexit" does not seem to be the rational choice in this negotiation between UK and EU. For this reason, British Prime Minister, David Cameron, came to the European Council, which is the European institution which Britain recognizes as the body from which each European political decision must be expressed and be routed, to negotiate. The most important pledge he received is the right national parliamentaries to veto a European policy, coming from Commission and European Parliament. This veto gives the power Britain to abstain from policies that promote the political integration of the Union, or simplier, this veto gives British the right to transform any European policy that is contrary to British virtue for the EU intergovernmental structure.
Under what Britain won, Cameron tried to form an unattractive setting for all new employees, not British ones, who wish to settle in the UK. In the same direction is also the position of Britain on the refugee issue, on which the small controlled influx of refugees in Britain is the Cameron official position.
Apart from the conservative political position of Cameron, his policy in relation to Europe, is moving to get the part of voters who are opposed to the thought of Europe, and who, if Cameron was not strict with Europe, will be capitalized by nationalist political parties and groups in the UK. In other words, towards constructing the conservative Yes for the upcoming referendum, Tories, that will vote Yes, could not exclude the euroscepticism from their agenda. Rather, they must upheld euroscepticism. As paradoxical as it may sound, no one should ignore that euroscepticism is a structural, inherent element in the international identity of the United Kingdom.
All of what was described above constitute the most important battle, which EU has to give in the near future. Donald Tusk collaborated with David Cameron, in order Britain's Prime Minister to hold in his hands a narrative, which will declare that “we, as Britains, have to stay in EU, but with our terms.”
It is doubtful even how many were convinced by Cameron’s effort and under what arguments the Yes and No will be expressed. And you know, there will be a further discussion on the Yes of Tories and the Yes of Labour.
Finally, one would wonder all this time, what is the German position in all of this issue. Germany developed a hegemonic political figure in the last decade in the EU. Essentially Germany pioneered at making a political platform for the management of fiscal crisis and they will accept with political peace and anticipation the next step of the banking union. Angela Merkel had reacted negatively to the initial signs of Cameron, in autumn of 2015, on his demands about restrictions on the movement of people in the EU. The decision, however, Cameron to join the part of Yes, basically makes him her ally.
Moreover, the intensity with which UK seeks restrictions on the movement of people in the EU, the reduced influx of refugees in the country and their detachment from the continuous external bail outs in deficit economies, are all elements of an agenda, which is not at all unattractive by her political opponents inside her party, and to extra right-wing parties in Germany. It would be wrong not to recognize that the package that was given to Cameron has the Merkel seal, the Merkel legitimacy and that it is not one of her moves. What her opponent express, she pushes it to Britain in order they to stay in Europe. Merkel is fighting on three fronts, on the economic situation of the euro zone, on the proper management of the refugees and on her ever decreasing popularity in Germany.
The central and possibly northern Europe, except from Sweden, in the majority, appear to be opposite and to promote their national agendas over Europe. The European south seems to be her ally, in an attempt to distract further economic benefits as well. EU institutions, such as the European Commission, is under the control of Merkel. In this picture, Merkel could not have conflicting agendas with British Prime Minister, as regards question of “Brexit”. The involvement of NATO, and, here, the additional presence of the US, is to dress up the situation that is at stake, and to facilitate Merkel in refugee issue.
In security issues, ΝΑΤΟ has the absolute legitimacy of all its members, especially in central-eastern Europe, which is the current opponent of Merkel at this point on the refugee issue, and its presence in the Aegean sea is about to act as a catalyst. First reassuring the insecurity, which is pushing to the construction of the wall and the closure of borders between EU countries and second requiring a control system in the flow of refugees from the coast of Turkey.
This picture of the moment in these times of Europe.