T
he US is concentrating on the Middle East, Eastern Europe, the Baltic States and the Scandinavia region to segregate Russia. The US is, also, focusing on Asia-Pacific to contain China. America, and Its NATO allies, gave an end to the combat operations in Afghanistan and pulled back their combat forces in order to protect the Middle East Europe and South China Sea. This implies that America is unable to simultaneously wage war on a number of fronts.

Perhaps this is because of a military personnel deficit or lack of funding. With such an unpopular decision, the US lost its land-superiority and air-supremacy in south-central Asia, especially in Afghanistan, which it enjoyed for more than a decade. According to some intelligence sources, a few months ago a Russian made helicopter packed with Federal Security Committee (FSB), Federal Bodyguard Service (FSO), Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Russia and Inter-Intelligence Service (ISI), Military Intelligence (MI), and Intelligence Bureau (IB) officials of Pakistan traveled from Pakistan to Russia thru Afghanistan and crashed in Taliban-controlled Logar Province of Afghanistan.

Taliban later handed over the occupants, to Pakistan when this secret assignment became public. The Pakistan statement said that they wanted to repair the helicopter in Russia.

The information indicates the Russian and Pakistani intelligence officials discussed the possible intelligence and military cooperation between Pakistan and Russia to curb US forward policy in the region thru their proxies in the region, especially in Afghanistan. Moreover, due to lack of US air supremacy in Afghanistan, Russia, Iran and Pakistan continue to supply Taliban to disrupt US strategy.  

Before the US decided to reduce their footprint in the region, they developed Plan B. Plan B formulated a strategy to further control the region and establish a counter balance against China. This plan was developed to limit dependency of its allies, India and others, on Iranian energy sectors. The US invented a Tie-binding strategy, or regional inter-dependency plan. With such an arrangement, the US desire was to attach Central Asia with South Asia and Europe via Afghanistan.

To fulfill its wish, America has launched number of projects:

1. The gas pipeline project named TAPI (Turkmenistan , Afghanistan, Pakistan and India), to bring Turkmen gas thru Afghanistan to India and

2. The electricity project called CASA 1000, to pass electricity from Central Asia to South Asia and

3. The New Silk Road project to sustain free flow of goods in the region and connect the region with Europe.

American strategists believed that with such a policy they could fasten the regions (Central-Asia and South-Asia) with geo-economic and geo-strategic projects and further isolate Iran, China and possibly Russia. They assumed that the regional countries, due to the energy needs and economic priorities, would leave aside their geo-political objectives and divergences to build full cooperation. For these reasons the US abandoned Afghan villages, districts and provinces. Then, the US, NATO and regional allies revolutionized the strategy to control only transit roads, GT roads and major cities. To accomplish this goal they have supported the Afghan National Army to secure areas where TAPI, CASA 1000 and New Silk Road traverse.

As soon as Iran and Russia learned that they were excluded from the major regional projects they increased their focus to cause provocations. The Iranian and Russian intelligence organizations have been assembling leaders of Taliban. As an example, “A few month ago Mullah Mansur (leader of Taliban), after visiting Iran, on his way back to Pakistan, was hunted by US drone.” Generally, from time to time, Mansur would pass along plans to take over the major cities and transit roads and GT roads to disrupt US strategy and curtail US geopolitical objectives in the region.

According to some sources at STRATFOR, a US-based private intelligence agency, Taliban have changed their tactics. In the earlier periods they were focusing on remote areas. But after gathering with Russian and Iranian intelligence networks the Taliban have launched a massive offensive mission under the title of Umari Operation. Umar is one of the will-known disciples of Prophet Muhammad. The Taliban instigated aggressive attacks on major cities and transit roads this year. They took over Kundoz province in the north to cut-off Kabul with northern Afghanistan. In the mean time, they attacked Helmand province to bring to a halt Hilmand with Kandahar province.

At the same time, they started operations in Maidan-Wardak and Ghazni Provinces to bring to an end to Kabul rule by means of Southern Afghanistan. Then they launched missions in Laghman Province to cut off Kabul with eastern Afghanistan. Also, they have launched major assaults in Logar Province to disconnect Kabul with North-eastern Afghanistan. The overall plan is to round up Kabul to over-throw the Afghan Government and interrupt the US on-going plan.

Thus it is incumbent on the new administration of America (Donald Trump administration) to rejuvenate its regional forward policy for South-Central Asian before we see a complete loss of over 15 years of support. The current adversaries to the US, NATO and Supporting Allies have a growing sense of success. Also, they have no intention of freely cooperating with the larger plan of the US, NATO and Supporting Allies and will do everything possible to disrupt and destroy all plans. If the current situation described above does not change through strong US leadership the Afghan people will suffer greatly. The Afghan people will never progress. The Afghan families will be thrown in to a destructive tailspin. The Afghan government evolution will never progress to a leadership role in the region as the centerpiece of cooperation, trade, diplomacy and commerce.    

If America will not invigorate its strategy for the region, the Afghan built/US supported Kabul regime will collapse and the US Tie-binding strategy would be really at risk, as it seems the US has no Plan C.

Ajmal Sohail

Ajmal Sohail is Co-founder of Counter Narco-Terrorism Alliance Germany, co-founder of Afghan Liberal Party, Director General Centre for Strategic Research-Diplomacy Afghanistan and he is frequently on National and International news outlets as socio-economic, political, strategic, national security and intelligence analyst and researcher.

Top