The Implication of Brexit to the UK

The smoke did not completely succumb on the Scottish referendum to remain within the United Kingdom (UK). Again, British politics is in the hot spot as the question of whether the UK remains with the European Union (EU) is debated and put to a vote. Regarding this issue, two of the main political parties, the Conservatives and Labour, have divided at the national level and party leaders are found standing with opposition parties, adding a dash of flavour to the proceedings.

Both sides, with the enormous strength, are trying to convince the voters of their views, causing explosions in the social media. The British public are forced to watch this mockery of politics with of major political parties failing to stand with one voice within their own rankings. Subsequently, the major damage is endured by the Conservatives rather than Labour, because the ruling elite have to face the pressure of current affairs. Hence, the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, is facing serious challenges even from the lack of unification his own party.

Furthermore, the domestic politics are currently demonstrating their confused stance. The leader of the UK Independent Party (UKIP), Nigel Farage, is known for his controversial speeches on the subject of the UK membership in the EU, having previously blasted Cameron and George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, by stating that both men are living on “a constant diet of lies”.

The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has voiced his opinion and has stated that the UK leaving the EU will subsequently lead to the decline the value of pound. This statement was met by accusations by the Torries, claiming that the financial forecast stated by Carney was ‘phoney’ and made in the bid to remain in the EU. Additionally, Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London has publically dissociated himself from the statement made by the Bank of England. The resignation of Ian Duncan Smith the now former cabinet minister, from the Cameron government is costing more damage to the prime minister as Duncan Smith leads his exit EU campaign.

The split of the Conservatives is the ‘feel good factor’ for members of the Labour Party at the moment. With claims of the “National Health Service (NHS) at risk from Brexit”, the former Conservative Prime Minister, Sir John Major, is attacking and questioning his former political party for the reasoning behind the “late conversion” to backing to leave. What's more there is the unusual united front of Major and another former Prime Minister and member of the Labour party, Tony Blair as the men stand together against the Brexit. The Guardian reported on the 9th June this year that together, Bair and Major have stated that “If Britain left the EU, border control would be introduced between Northern Ireland and the Republic and the union with Scotland would be threatened”.

The other major concern for UK would be its future economic relations with the EU, should the country vote to leave. Germany and Netherlands are major exporters to the UK with majority of other EU countries being the buyers. If UK withdraws from the EU, it will inevitably have a huge impact on the British economy.

The Labour party has taken a pro-EU stance, however, a recent report says, “Labour voters in the dark about the party’s stance on Brexit”. Research by The Guardian conducted in May showed that the British public “did not know what Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn thought or believed he was for remain but his heart isn’t in it”. To strengthen this argument, Tariq Ali, one of the Corbyn’s long-time allies said that personally Corbyn, “would be campaigning for Brexit if he was not the Labour Party leader”. However, the party publically contradicts this statement by claiming that their leader has always supported the ‘remain campaign’. Only the individuals know the truth about their stance. One thing is clear; their stance is strongly displaying their future political calculations.

If Britain votes for Brexit, the entire nation will be forced to do battle with countless problems in various forms and on numerous fronts. It could be argued that any cultural ties will get more direct influence if the vote is in favor of Brexit. However British citizens will not be able to enjoy the same freedom of EU travel in future with Brexit and should be compelled to get visa while visiting the EU. Communication between the EU and UK will also come under considerable threat. Furthermore perception of the UK will change substantially by EU countries and the rest of the world.

In this big policy debate, a contributing factor for the ‘leave campaigners’ is the recent flow of immigration from the EU into the UK and the currently confusing immigration policies articulated by the British government. If Labour policy bids welcome to the immigrant, then the Conservative government policy tends to ‘kick them out’. Needless to say, the two major political parties do not voice a consensus on the issue of immigration. Under a Labour government, immigrants were seen to be contributing for the UK pension fund. This is not ideal, particularly as the UK has expressed a wish to decrease the level of immigration, as this incentive increases the allure of the UK to immigrants over other countries. Furthermore, many places in UK the immigrants from the Eastern Europe are permitted to fill vacant jobs in the local area. This consequently raises a serious doubt that young British individuals are either able or interested in the same roles, further propelling local business owners to appoint these Eastern European immigrants.

It could be claimed that ‘leave’ campaigners would not realize that if the Brexit got more votes, the UK would potentially lose its moral support in the international system. This will impact the UK in the long run. At the moment the UK enjoys a certain amount of power to negotiate within and with the EU. This cannot continue if the UK is to cancel its membership.

Evidently, this is a crucial time for the British prime minister and undoubtedly Cameron will feel under as much pressure, if not more, than in the 2015 general election. Many believe that he is in the position to save the face value of UK as he knows better than anyone about any of the hidden impacts of a vote for Brexit. For this reason Cameron has come down heavily in reaching with his opponents in this direction, to keep the UK to board on with the EU bus. His style of working with the Labour London Mayor demonstrates this effectively.

A major exam the Prime Minister David Cameron will be writing on today (23rd June 2016). If the UK votes in favor of the Brexit, the opposition will ask the current prime minister to resign. This would have an enormous impact on and within the conservative party and the government, as well as angering millions of British voters across the world. Serious implications are waiting to face the UK. Leadership and economy are the big issues for the ruling elite to encounter. Finally, this would have a long time consequences on the unity of UK. The day will come when Scotland, Northern Ireland and potentially Wales, will make their own, independent call on their future. No one can predict when this would happen, if at all. What we can be more certain of is that United Kingdom in Europe means a united kingdom.

Antony Clement

Antony Clement is currently a student of the International Relations program at the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK

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