Connect with us

Intelligence

The CIA Led War reopens in Afghanistan

Published

on

After the announcement of president Trump new South Asian strategy and according to our sources within the American intelligence community, the US forces will double their offensives on insurgency/Taliban which the Pentagon refers to special operations, known as ‘surge’.

Many US Non-Official Cover (NOCs) or espionage activities will be increased. Furthermore the CIA and US intelligence community will multiply their Afghan ‘Snitches’ and maximize their operations all over Afghanistan. This calls for amplifying of CIA Official Cover Spies (OCS).

Moreover, the Pentagon and US intelligence community will maximize the area of their maneuver not only in Afghanistan but also in South Asia.

The CIA will triple Drone operations and Global Hawks, in other words, technological warfare is going to be used to manage the bustles of insurgency/Taliban.

In accordance with our sources the CIA led war will be regenerated against insurgency/Taliban, because the Insurgents/Taliban have got robust for quite some time and there are narratives that Kabul regime would collapse , if the CIA not to jump in. 

It is obvious the insurgents managed to control around 50 percent of the country.

In addition, both Russia and Iran are paying big amounts of money to Afghans to run hate messages and put up banners and posters against the Afghan government, the NATO Coalition, and all Sunni Muslims in Afghanistan.

Meantime, Pakistani Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) is trying to curtail the role of peace from the process.  It gives the impression that, one should keep in mind the war is far from over for Afghans since, Afghans face four breeds of wars in the country:

Extremist war,

Tribal war,

Sectarian war,

CIA war,

To be sincere, the extremist war is counter-balance to CIA war and vice versa. There is no ground for extremists to expand their maneuvers except for some pockets of resistance of Narco-terrorism, power brokers and jihadists who hang about to “bang the drum of spiritual warriors”.

Regrettably, the bona fide war may last in Afghanistan because of the tribal war and sectarian war or the war between different religious sects; most specifically the war amid Shiites and Sunnis.

Such wars and hostilities will lead this new-fangled Afghanistan to be part of the aged old history once again.

According to the Assessments of Counter Narco-terrorism Germany, there is now a growing sense among the Afghan people that Iran is feeding Shiite unrest and Saudi Arabia is feeding Sunni unrest both against each other.

There really is no insurgency/Taliban as used to be here. It is now outside countries picking either a Sunni or Shiite side to support violence and unrest against each other and the target country is Afghan soil.

What used to be the Taliban Organizational Extremism is now a myth. However, the memory of this myth is being used against the people of Afghanistan, the American and the entire International Community to hide the actions led by Saudi Arabia plus Pakistan and Iran to enlarge the global war between the Sunni and Shiite Islam. 

To avoid the above said quandaries and predicaments and keep the country on the accurate track of political stability, sustainable economic developments,  evolving security and the state sovereignty, the Afghan government is required to:

  1. Call for establishment of joint counter Narco-terrorism team,
  2. Call for a joint counter black market team,
  3. Call for a joint counter illegal weaponry team,
  4. Call for a joint border guard team to halt cross-border terrorism, infiltration of illegal drugs and narcotics as well as permeation of black money.
  5. Call for responsibly utilization of all aids coming into Afghanistan, in order to enhance the lives of all citizens; Sunnis, Shiites and others.

It comes across that the Afghan president, is not willing to comply with any of mentioned prerequisites because, his team members are indulged with drug mafia, black money, illegal weapons and cross-border terrorism.

These have become milking cows for his entire team. If the Afghan President will not come up, Afghanistan will be an arena for neighboring countries and other regional powers to pursue their strategic depth all the way through Afghan soil.    

The only choice left for Americans and Afghans in order to bear a resemblance to the strategic depth of the US with of Afghanistan is to establish counter-balances at different levels in the region to brazen out insurgency, their sanctuaries and sponsors.

Continue Reading
Comments

Intelligence

Islam Between Fatwa and Suicide Attack

Uran Botobekov

Published

on

Doctor of Theology Muhammad Tahir ul-Qadri

Jihad of the Moderate Islam against Salafi-Jihadist groups

Pakistan seems to take active measures against the ideology of radical Islamism after Donald Trump accused Islamabad of playing a “double game” on fighting terrorism and warned it would have to do more if it wanted to maintain U.S. aid.In mid-January 2018, more than 1,800 Muslim clerics in Pakistan issued fatwa against jihad and suicide bombings.

The text of the legal religious decision specifies that “suicide bombings are ‘haraam’ and violate key Islamic teachings.”“This fatwa provides a strong base for the stability of a moderate Islamic society,” Pakistan President Mamnoon Hussain told at an official ceremony. The fatwa has been developed by 30 clerics, and another 1,829 prominent representatives of the Islamic clerics have supported this position, as AlArabiya has written in its message.

As a scholar analyzing the process of radicalization of the Islamic ideology and the activities of Salafi-Jihadi groups in Central Asia and in the Middle East, I’d like to emphasize that this measure taken by the Pakistani authorities have been approved by many ulamas of moderate Islam in the region. Only Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani criticized the anti-terror fatwa issued by religious scholars in Pakistan, saying the anti-terrorism fatwa should have covered the entire Muslim world, including his country.

It should be noted that prominent theologians, muftis and ulamas of the Islamic world before had issued similar Islamic directive or fatwa against suicide bombings used by terrorist groups. For example, in 2010, a prominent Islamic preacher, Doctor of Theology Muhammad Tahir ul-Qadri issued a global fatwa against suicide bombings. In his book, “Fatwa on terrorism and suicide bombings”, issued in English in London, he has organized theological arguments based on ayats of Quran against killings of civilians and against suicide bombings. He set out a point-by-point theological rebuttal of every argument used by al-Qaeda inspired recruiters. At that time Tahir ul-Qadri told that his 600-page judgment, known as a fatwa, completely dismantles al-Qaeda’s violent ideology.Unfortunately, after 8 years, we have to admit that the promises made by Tahirul-Qadri have not been accomplished. His fatwa didn’t destroy the radical ideology of al-Qaeda, which keeps on succeeding in recruiting new supporters throughout the world and using suicide bombings.

In 2014, Saudi Arabia’s senior clerical leadership has issued a new fatwa, or legal ruling, declaring terrorism a “heinous crime” under sharia law to undermine the legitimacy of ISIS insurgents in Iraq and Syria and to discourage support for the extremists.In 2013, Afghan and Egyptian Muslim scholars raised the issue of the release of a fatwa prohibiting suicide bombings, which are actively used by the Taliban militants.In March 2015, Spiritual Directorate of the Muslims of Russia also issued a fatwa against ISIS, which said that the creation of the Caliphate was the haraam without the approval of all the Muslims of the world and approval of the shurah. Russian ulamas have noted that Islam forbids the announcement of the Caliphate without the “shurah” procedure (approval) with all the Muslims of the world. Announcement of the caliphate without approval is deemed a fitnah (revolt). Similar fatwas against the use of suicide bombers by al-Qaeda and ISIS have been issued by Islamic ulamas of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, India and other states.

Yet the efficiency of Islamic directive or fatwa against jihad issued by muftis and ulamas of the Islamic world remains low. Because of their methods of countering the ideology of Islamic radicalism and the ways of fatwa,the explanations given to the people are not sufficient to convince them. Unlike them, the Islamic radicals use social media efficiently and treat various categories of people exactly.

It is naïve to think that if religious scholars issue a fatwa against al-Qaeda and ISIS, the ideology of Islamic radicalism would be delegitimized, while their supporters would lay down arms and would not use suicide bombings.

I have always argued that the ideology of radical Islamism, which allows the use of suicide bombings “against crusaders, Jews and other enemies of Islam”, first of all, must be fought by the Islamic countries, prominent ulamas and recognized muftis that know well the theory and practice of the Islamic religion. However, a burst of the violent ideology of the Islamic radicalism and the active use of suicide bombers in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan last year prove that the Islamic countries and their clergy lose out significantly to transnational groups of al-Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS in an ideological struggle. The downfall of the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria does not mean that the ideology of the militant Salafism has been prostrated in these countries and suicide bombings have stopped. Vice versa, the activity of the supporters of the Islamic State has increased significantly in social media where they call for jihad against the United States, Russia, Israel and other countries in the West.

It is the call for jihad that is the ideological weapon in the arms of terrorist groups. In the traditional moderate Islam, jihad is not among the five pillars of the faith and is understood as the defensive war against harassment of the Muslims. However, the Islamist radicals try to make jihad as the sixth pillar in the Islamic science, after Shahada (a declaration of faith), Salat (daily worship), Zakat (almsgiving), Siyam (fasting during the Ramadan), and Hajj (the pilgrimage to Makkah).

The Salafis consider jihad mainly as an armed struggle, placing emphasis on the attacking aspect of the holy war. They declare participation in jihad as the sacred duty of every true Muslim. Ideologists of radical Islamism Sayyid Qutb, abd al-Salam Faraj, Ayman al-Zawahiri have developed jihad strategy and tactics for the modern world, emphasizing the methods of using of suicide bombers. In social media, terrorist groups from Central Asia Katibatal Tawhidwal Jihad, the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), Katibatal-Imam Bukhari call the Muslims to join jihad in Sham and defend Islam instead of sitting at home. They claim that only after the overthrow of kafirs and restoration of the unity of all Muslims (ummah), like it was in the golden age of Caliphates, peaceful relations can be established within the ummah.

The Quran as the Source of Truth in the Ideological Struggle

To defend their own positions, both parties – prominent scholarsof moderate Islam and leaders of radical Islamist groups – appeal to the ayats of the Quran and hadiths. In their fatwas, the ulamas and muftis of Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as prominent theologian Tahirul-Qadri claim that Islam has nothing to do with terror and the Quran does not allow suicides by means of bombs. As an argument, the authors of fatwas refer to the famous surah 4:29 of the Quran, which reads as follows,“And do not kill yourselves [or one another]. Indeed, Allah is to you ever Merciful.”

However, ideologists of radical Islamism also refer to the Surah Ali ‘Imran [3:169-170] of the Quran for the purpose of recruiting new suicide bombers and inspiring them to the acts of violence and terror:”And never think of those who have been killed in the cause of Allah as dead. Rather, they are alive with their Lord, receiving provision, rejoicing in what Allah has bestowed upon them of His bounty, and they receive good tidings about those [to be martyred] after them who have not yet joined them – that there will be no fear concerning them, nor will they grieve.”

The leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has become the leading theoretician of suicide terrorism by rhetorically blurring the line between suicide and martyrdom. In essays such as “Jihad, Martyrdom, and the Killing of Innocents,” among others, Zawahiri differentiates the two on the basis of intention: Ending one’s life “out of depression and despair” is suicide, but ending one’s life “to service Islam” is martyrdom. Zawahiri told that “the death of a martyr is not the end of the jihad, but rather a clarion call to the witnesses of truth. Martyrdom has come to pour fuel on the fire of rage blazing in the hearts of his troops against the Crusaders.”He goes on to state that anyone who joins the UN is not a true Muslim, calling them Henchmen of the Crusaders.

Zawahiri calls the governments of Muslim states the betrayers of Islam. To intensify his thoughts, he refers to ayat 60:4 of the Quran, in which Allah via his Messenger, Muhammad, summarizes the Muslim-Infidel relation as plainly exampled by Abraham, when he states: “We disown you and that which you worship besides Allah.  We renounce you. Enmity and hate shall forever reign between us–till you believe in Allah alone.”

The Foggy Future of Fatwa

Thus, as the analysis has shown, the efficiency of fatwas against suicide bombings issued by prominent religious scholars and Islamic clergy of Pakistan, Russia, India, and some Central Asian states remains low. To speak simply, the impact of fatwas on terrorist groups of al-Qaeda, ISIS and their branches in Central Asia, Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), Katibat al-Imam Bukhari remains very low. The Islamic extremist groups do not consider the authors of fatwas as prominent authorities in sharia law.

Moreover, they think that these fatwas have been issued by order of the governments of Islamic countries, which they consider Irtidad, i.e. renegades of Islam.According to Islam, apostasy is punished by death.Sahih al-Bukhari [52:260]: “…The Prophet said, ‘If somebody (a Muslim) discards his religion, kill him.’”Therefore, terrorist groups of al-Qaeda, ISIS and Taliban do not recognize and do not accept the fatwas against suicide bombings issued by the spiritual leaders of moderate Islam. Radical Islamist groups have their own advices on religious affairs and they follow their own commandments. This is another sign that confirms that radical Islam does not accept the principles of modern society and the democratic legal order.

In my opinion, the fatwas against suicide bombings used by terrorist organizations have a positive impact on the struggle against the ideology of Islamic radicalism for several reasons. First, the positive aspect of fatwas issued is their impact on public perception. Despite the fact that they cannot strike a devastating blow to the ideology of terrorist groups, this initiative of Pakistani religious scholars can in some way prevent the recruitment of new jihadists.

Second, fatwas contribute in some way to the public debates among the leaders of traditional moderate Islam and violent jihadists, which can lead to the revision of contradictory interpretations of some important elements of the Islamic science.

Third, after the issue of such fatwas, the Islamic world gradually comes to understand that the Muslim community of the world plays the decisive and defining role in the struggle against the ideology of radical Islamism and destruction of jihadist groups. Responsibility for the destruction of Islamist terrorist groups and jihadist ideology lies on the shoulders of the governments of Islamic states.

We can say quite literally that current Islamic civilization goes through a critical and crucial point in its history and the fate of this civilization directly depends on its ability to cope with radical ideology of the ISIS, al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups.

Continue Reading

Intelligence

What Role Should Criminology Play in Government Policymaking?

Alina Toporas

Published

on

At this very moment in time, there is not much agreement over what the role of criminology should be in society. Therefore, in this academic article, an attempt will be made at portraying what the author considers to be a more appropriate picture of the role of criminological research in government policymaking based on multi-disciplinarity, multi-professionality and multi-institutionality.

For the purpose of this analysis, I will employ the notion of public criminology as the type of criminology which ‘takes as part of its defining mission a more vigorous, systematic and effective intervention in the world of social policy and social action’. The reason why public criminology seems to be the perfect fit for the conduction of a proper discussion on the relationship between criminological theory and government policy is that it attempts to give meaning and context to social facts, moving beyond ‘administrative criminology’ or ‘policy criminology’ which is considered to be practiced in an optimal fashion when it uses experimental evidence that leads to easily proven benefits.

The Influential Role of Theory in Politics

With the advent of all the changes occurring in the 21st century, there is a need for a stronger bond between criminological research and government policymaking. There have been scholars advocating for an insulation of crime and punishment institutions from the political arena, together with other leading criminologists which have concluded about the criminological industry that it is politically and socially irrelevant and does not have much to add to the big debates on crime and justice   However, most criminologists recognize the benefits of getting involved one way or another in the process of governmental policymaking. As a case in point, Kitcher (2001) tried to answer the question of what collective good is criminology enquiry aiming to promote and came up with a long and, perhaps, inexhaustive list of added benefits, namely reduction in crime, improved efficacy of criminal justice institutions, heightened public security, the protection of the rule of law, individual liberty and human rights and responding to crime in a reasoned manner while dispelling myths.

Multi-disciplinary Criminological Research

Treatments of multi-disciplinarity in the development of criminology throughout history do not exist in the academia. Nor has any other branch of knowledge (i.e. psychiatry, psychology, law, sociology, forensics, medicine, anthropology) been able to claim criminology as its own. For this reason, it is important to bring to the forefront the problematiques of multi-disciplinarity regarding the production of criminological research and of multi-professionality concerning the government policymaking.

At one side of the spectrum, criminology has accustomed itself so far to operating in arenas, which have already been inhabited by other disciplines, while being delineated as constantly ‘raiding’ these disciplines. Nonetheless, not possessing enough ‘autonomy’ and being more outward looking has been looked at as a strength. Thus, it can be argued that it is crucial for the strength in relevance of criminological research in governmental policy for it to be multi-disciplinary, as opposed to morphing into a single discipline. In the unfortunate event of the latter, criminology would risk an increase in insularity from key debates in the political science and on the political scene. Since many scholars agree with the fact that criminology does not engage in the distribution of a shared conceptual language or a basic theoretical tradition, methodological and theoretical pluralism are not only preferred, but should be endorsed and promoted by criminologists in the governmental policy sphere. This can be achieved through the engagement of economists, sociologists, developmental psychologists and operations researchers, among others, in the creation of professional criminological knowledge.

Multi-professional Government Policymaking

On the one hand, the side of policymaking and the “circumstances of politics” are exceedingly relevant and need to display certain ‘multi-professional’ traits in order for criminological research to be easily put into practice. The issue of who is on the receiving end of all of this criminological research has been initially brought up together with Harold Laswell’s concept of the ‘science of democracy’ in which he draws attention to the necessity of establishing specific audiences for criminological research .Hoppe (2005) attempts to answer this dilemma by framing ‘the policy analyst’s operational task as focusing the attention of all those involved in policymaking so as to bring about their maximum rationality’ . In the category of ‘all those involved’, we should be able to include politicians, police, penal professionals, international political agencies, private security companies, pressure groups, non-governmental organisations, social research companies, consultancy firms, media organisations and the public opinion (i.e. crime victims) which should all both sponsors and recipients of criminological research. Therefore, academics should not be so hung up on engaging externally solely for the purpose of informing public policy, considering the possibilities offered by commissioned research from the part of NGOs and businesses or the prospects brought about by consultancy work. As a whole, these newly-forged networks should provide a great source of multi-professional engagement in the production, mediation and usage of criminological research. In terms of production and usage of criminological research, it might prove valuable to keep in mind that government policymaking should encompass a wide operation of ‘practical rationality’ in which all concerned voices are able to come to ‘reasonable decisions’ Moreover, their participation in the formulation of the criminological policy discourse could provide ‘reality checks’ which help prevent scholarly insulation found in other social sciences apart from criminology.

Since democracy is at the heart of governmental policymaking in the 21st century, the ‘professional’ knowledge needs to be supplemented by knowledge from a broad spectrum of sources such as science, the media, party preferences and opinion polls in order for a proportionate and representative policy response to be formulated. In this sense, one can argue that governmental policymaking is not as much of a science, as it is a craft, not as much of an ‘art of the optimum’ as it is an ‘art of the possible’. As discussed above, it is impossible to escape politics if criminologists want to be included in the crime policy discussion since ‘the only legitimate way for anybody’s views about principle or policy to be put into practice is through the dirty and messy business of politics’.

Multi-institutional Collective Decision-Making

This is best represented by Loader and Sparks’ concept of the ‘democratic under-labourer’. This idea contains an ‘institutional-critical dimension’ responsible for facilitating the interaction process between criminology, criminal justice institutions, the government, the media and the civil society organisations. This comes in the shape of an effort to try and ‘explain how criminological claims are likely to fare when translated into ‘communication formats’ of other social organisations and thereby shed light on the obstacles that stand in the way of a more informed politics of crime’

When translating criminological research into policy, decisions should be taken collectively, bearing in mind the prevalence of ‘self-interest, ignorance or prejudice’ of different stakeholders in the policymaking arena which might impede the process of reaching an agreement between policymaking parties. Conversely, these various know-hows different policymakers bring to the table also imply different lenses around crime controversies which, as opposed to gridlock, could set forth alternative manners of ‘thinking and responding to crime’. Using Wegner’s concept of ‘boundary’ as both the border between two ‘communities of practice’ and a way to ‘develop ways of maintaining connections with the rest of the world’ and applying this concept in relation to criminology as put into use by Jones (2012), specific practical ways of forming interlinks between disciplines, professions and institutions surface. Jones (2012) proposes that some of these could encompass ‘industry work placements, academic exchange, visiting scholar programmes[…]conferences, workshops, work programmes, seminar series, secondments, or consultancy work’ . Taking it a step further, he goes on to suggest that even social activities, communal newsletters, email distribution lists or office and site visits could potentially aid in the process of connecting various practices. Furthermore, by exploiting the notion of ‘boundary work’ as employed by Henry and Mackenzie (2011), it becomes clear how boundaries between criminologists and non-criminologists lead to a ‘failure of academics to make research comprehensible to external audiences’

One of the best mechanisms employed for the inclusion of more stakeholders in the translation of criminological knowledge into policymaking is interactive governance. This method helps facilitate ‘relational interaction’   between state and non-state contributors to the dissemination of criminological work through, for instance, ‘reflexive monitoring and dynamic social learning’ since in the dynamic age of globalisation people tend to trust in the ‘reflexive monitoring of action’ to guide us. The benefits of connecting with particular governmental, academic, civil society groups, and even corporate actors, can aid in the creation of alternative justice policy proposals (i.e. remaking of criminal justice institutions).To go a step even further, the creation of a ‘market in crime control’ populated with ‘consultants’ and ‘entrepreneurs’ selling their expertise to criminal justice and law enforcement agencies is something to strive for and not fear because of potential loss of academic integrity  . While these proposals might not be implemented in the next couple of years, they will certainly create more space for an active presence of criminologists in contemporary controversies.Nevertheless, collective decision making should be exercised with caution considering the dangerous prospect of deadlock due to potential ‘burdens of judgement’ such as troubles deciding upon what can be deemed as relevant evidence or competing values of policymakers as a result of various life experiences

All things considered, criminology can truly play an influential role in informing public policy as long as it learns how to engage with other disciplines. However, nothing will bring great results if the government policymaking machine does not do its part in inviting multiple professions to the decision table. These two actors (i.e. criminology and government) should learn how to work in a multi-institutional fashion commissioning a variety of stakeholders for the policy consultation process. Bearing in mind the “catastrophic trajectory of contemporary policies”, this short essay served as a platform to envisage a multi-disciplinary criminology, a multi-professional government policymaking and a multi-institutional engagement in order to successfully respond to the trials of living in the era of globalisation. Thus, the main inference that we draw from this paper is that the relationship between criminological research and government policy should, in its turn, occupy a multi-disciplinary arena. It should fearlessly and unapologetically acknowledge that it contains a ‘subject matter but no unique methodological commitment or paradigmatic theoretical framework, fact which can only move the debate forward in order to design the ideal type of criminological engagement with government policymaking.

This short paper was written on the back of an extensive academic bibliography. For a full list of references, please contact the author on Twitter or Linkedin.

Continue Reading

Intelligence

Iranian Intelligence response to the new security challenges in the West of Asia

Published

on

During the years after the Islamic Revolution of Iran, national security considerations have undergone various changes. Changes have been conducted in the light of the pursuit and continuation of some of the great features of the Islamic Republic’s holy system. The country’s security considerations are divided into three axis-driven discourse-driven, center-driven and growth-driven divisions. In each discourse, four basic variables, namely, “national security goals and principles”, “national power”, “national security threats and vulnerabilities”, and finally “national security policies” have been considered. Islamic loyalty, how it originated and speed its growth was so sudden and shocking that most analysts and observers were shocked. How self-immolation by a simple street vendor in Tunisia has led to the emergence and growth of democratic democracies in the Middle East and the fall of the dominoes of North African countries, and how none of the world’s leading analysts and future scholars failed to make the slightest speculation about its emergence needs a debate Another is to review the methods of analysis and approach to dealing with political phenomena. On the other hand, the emergence of radical Islamist groups emerged in the wake of the lockup and stalemate of the liberationist movement in Syria, and the rapid growth of a group such as ISIL, which, until two years ago, was one of the names of extremists al-Qaeda, The whole area of ​​the game changed completely from western Iraq and eastern Syria, turning it from a guerrilla group to overnight. Of course there is no doubt that this cannot happen without the coordination of security systems in the countries of the region and the world.

Thus, the challenges of the region changed from one to two years from soft to hard. In analyzing the causes of emergence, leading challenges and, consequently, determining the orientation of defense strategies, two basic approaches can be considered. In the first approach, the weight of analysis is given on the scene of global power, and the regional forces are the majority of the vertebrae playing on the enemy’s ground. Questions like this:

  1. Are these superpowers of the world seeking to change the fabric of political powers in the Middle East?
  2. Does the Trump government follow what its Republican self-government governments, father and wife Bush wanted to do?
  3. Are the Arab Gulf states, in the form of traditional and closed spaces, cannot be a good alliance for the West bloc and its head in the United States?

All of them will have a fairly positive answer. If we look at the cases with this hypothesis, conspiracy theory, color and smell become more pronounced, and its predecessor comes back decades ago, and it can even be traced back to World War I. Returns The emergence of Islamic extremist groups, the September 9th, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Iran-Iraq War, the Arab-Israeli wars, and even the rise of Israel, are all examples that can be analyzed in the context of conspiracy theory and can explain the Middle East’s current situation. Be In this approach, the tip of the Iranian intelligence movement will go to the world powers more than their puppets in the region.

However, without intending to abandon this approach, one can look at another window, and at least since 2000, on the other, as well as the fact that Western countries, and at their head, the United States more than the beginning and the end These currents have a role to play, in their benefit, in the framework of their own interests, have become stronger. If we deal with this approach, we can take responsibility for part of the political game in the region and see the impact on the political trends and trends in the region. Accordingly, our defensive strategy will also be regional. Based on the approach that the question in the above lines once again reminds us, why our tentacles have been so weak in getting weak signals? If we even admit that these probabilities have been investigated in the think tanks, then there should not have been any signs of public diplomacy.

Indeed, the rapid growth of a group of insurgents who does not consider itself to be bound by any international law, and which has been taking part in large parts of eastern Iraq and western Syria, over a period of several months, the total size of which is in the country’s size and size Britain, cannot be justified in the form of spontaneous and radical group movements. Accordingly, if we accept that countries in the region, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are somehow drawn from the curvature of the transfer of power, financial support and military equipment, should I accept that their policies as influential powers in the region Maintaining stability and balance of power has changed? Is Saudi seeking gendarme in the Gulf region? Is Turkey looking to revive the Ottoman Empire in the region? Does the Qatari government seek huge financial resources to become an influential pole in the region? Does this mean that the discourse of the twentieth century, in which Israel was the most pivotal enemy, has been altered, and the reorganization and redefinition of the regional map of the region with the triangle of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have been on the agenda of these countries? Where is the position of Iran? What role is Iran to play? Should security policy focus on preserving domestic security, or the importance of regional unilateral security shrinking into Iran? If the maintenance of impartiality is not fulfilled, how much should participation in the process affect the events, in what way, should our strategy be set up?

The point here is that if ISIL, which is free from any kind of adherence to any international treaty and treaty, is the executive arm of this policy of emerging powers in the region, and then the situation will be a little more complicated and complicated. ISIS has, as it has shown, exerted its greatest energy in its area of ​​influence and influence, in other words, ISIS’s policies are largely outspoken and the least attention has been paid to the satisfaction and welfare of the citizens of their occupied territories, which could be potential for Iran is very dangerous. Because of it provides not only the incentive for this group to violate the borders of Iran, but also the possibility of its actualization at all.

As evidence suggests, ISIS is not committed to any international treaties and norms in the war, and basically believes its war with the Western domination system in the world. So, given the attractiveness of this group among Muslims in different levels of power in Central Asia, and in particular Pakistan, and even Syria, the ISIS’s scenario of unusual and massacre weapons, such as nuclear, chemical and microbial weapons, is unlikely to happen. That realization can completely change the playing field.

Whether ISIS met with its supporters and sponsors can also be decisive in determining Iran’s security strategy. Is this alliance between these countries and ISIS a temporary and short-term solution or a long-term strategy? In the first assumption, with the provision of relative stability in the territory of this group, the challenges and conflicts will flood the Arabian countries of the Persian Gulf in the south and Turkey in the north. In the latter case, ISIS will play the role of a puppet or a puppet element of Iran’s regional rivals who can challenge the western borders of Iran by provoking religious motives.

What is important that the possibility of occurred these challenges is all, simultaneously and in the near future. And this also greatly adds to the complexity of the issue. On this basis, it is well worth the point that Iran’s security strategy is very smart, flexible and operational. In addition, Iran’s national security considerations have been subject to various developments, which can be summarized as follows from the transformation of the “extravagance to the introspection” from the “ideological approach and pure devotion to more realism”, from the “Ummah-axis to Iran-centered” From “simplicity to complexity”, and from the “Threat to Threat – Opportunity in the International System”. In these developments, we are paying more attention to the need for a balance between the implications and limitations of national security considerations.

Continue Reading

Latest

Newsdesk18 hours ago

Focus on GDP Fuelling Inequality and Short-Termism

Decades of prioritizing economic growth over social equity has led to historically high levels of wealth and income inequality and...

Economy23 hours ago

The geopolitical and financial significance of Bitcoin

Bitcoin and the other “cryptocurrencies”, namely Ethereum and Litcoin- although there are 33 additional currencies arriving on the Internet –...

Middle East23 hours ago

Iran at the top of the new regional order

Syria’s field developments have practically changed regional equilibrium, as analysts today report the new regional order in Western Asia. The...

Intelligence24 hours ago

Islam Between Fatwa and Suicide Attack

Jihad of the Moderate Islam against Salafi-Jihadist groups Pakistan seems to take active measures against the ideology of radical Islamism...

Middle East1 day ago

Whither Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ‘moderate’ Islam?

Recent Algerian media reports detailing Saudi propagation of a quietist, apolitical yet supremacist and anti-pluralistic form of Sunni Muslim ultra-conservatism...

Economy1 day ago

Reskilling Revolution: A Future of Jobs for All

The global economy faces a reskilling crisis with 1.4 million jobs in the US alone vulnerable to disruption from technology...

Newsdesk1 day ago

Connecting Armenia’s Regions with Technology to Ensure Greater Opportunities for Young People

Just over two months ago, an economist, an IT specialist, a historian and a linguist teamed up at the Vanadzor...

Newsletter

Trending

Copyright © 2018 Modern Diplomacy