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How will demonetization strengthen hands of Indian poor?

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[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] I [/yt_dropcap] ndia is undergoing a serious and strange crisis where poor and common people continue to suffer because they were not taken into confidence by the government by providing them with source of sustenance. Indians do not trust the PM because he had already cheated on them by promising them huge money when the black money etc are recovered from abroad but he is silent about that and began a direct attack on the common people with igniting money cash crisis. Most ATM machines are not functioning and most ones have no money but the rich people have huge sums of money in new currency notes.

Apparently, Hindutva brands RSS and BJP sought to save Modi from any possible punishment in future owing murder of Muslims in the aftermath of the Gujarat riots to appease Hindus. Now the BJP, RSS, VHP and PM Modi are jointly working to save the Hindu criminals from any possible punishment for destroying in 1992 the historic Babri Mosque on 06 December , death anniversary of Dr. Ambedkar, author of Indian Constitution. (The choice of death date of Dr. Ambedkar December 06 for destroying the historic Babri Mosque cannot be just coincidental, considering the importance of choice of dates for India even in cricket matches and joint cricket matches like IPL and ISL, etc).

Hindutva leader Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is now at a crossroads as PM Modi’s demonetization drive has backed its fortunes in the polls in future. If only the rich or corporate lords alone vote to elect a government, BJP or any other party needs not worry about the common people but majority of voters belong to common class.

Corruption, black money and Modi

Indian corruption is a very complicated issue as many forces are at work but government fails to deal with it because it always helps and supports one section of “special” people and refuses to launch a multi-prolonged approach simultaneously to root out the menace. .

Entire system is rotten. But PM Mod ahs attacked the common people in order to ostensibly end corruption and black and fake money. And the government decision is final and even parliament cannot do anything about it. That is Indian democracy.

India’s pride lies in promoting corruption and financial lords in all fields and back and fake money is thriving even when a leading economist Manamohan Singh led the UPA government. . .

Corruption is closely linked with rise of black money and state support for the rich and corporate lords to mint money as much as they want. In fact the central and state governments promote corruption and black money through fake joint sports exercises like IPL, ISL etc (meant for well to do people and all destroying national teams) where blackmoney is being channelized and even made white. In fact, India, after honoring a cricketer Sachin, who made some 100s by official fixings for mutual help, was struggling at the crease for nearly 2 years for his last one hundred runs, with Bharatratna and allows him to make even football a fixed sport. His mafia works for the success of Kerala blastards team which he bought or his own Mumbai team and the teams that play against the Sachin teams help score goals and win. Delhi team helped Sachin team to even in first leg semifinal. With third rate players having been bought by him and other billionaires, India is making a mockery of football showing that not only cricket but football also can be fixed as per a plan.

These fake players are celebrities for Indian media and government.

That is the Indian mischief in the name of sports. But can anyone do anything about these bogus night games?

Indian PM Narendra Modi has been in the news and he and all Hindutva parties need it and love it. Modi said last week his decision to ban old Rs 500 and 1,000 notes was taken to strengthen the hands of the nation’s poor.

As CM of already relatively developed Gujarat state, Modi came to national scene on the eve of parliamentary poll with his own claims of “development of Gujarat”, to which he subsequently added the issue of corruption and blackmoney in the back ground of the famous Anna Hazare-Kejriwal led anti-corruption movement and he as PM candidate of BJP wooed the voters by telling them that they would get a few lacks of rupees every month once black money is recovered from foreign banks.

As his influence began waning, suddenly PM Modi turned anti-corruption crusader. Modi announced the demonetization drive as results of US president elections were coming out and Modi wanted to outsmart the winning Trump and USA in the media. A month into the demonetization drive, there cannot but be a sense of worry in government circles about the unchanging ground realities with no sign of the long queues before banks and ATMs shortening any time soon. There is no unanimity among opposition parties in their ranks about the course of action. A more effective opposition would have had a field day in pillorying Narendra Modi.

Addressing a farmers’ rally in his home state Gujarat in Deesa town of Banaskantha district, Modi said the honest people have been looted for 70 years and that he stands with the poor of the country. “We took the decision on currency notes to strengthen the hands of the poor of the nation,” said Modi without providing any hints about the scheme of making the poor rich. .

Terrorism, Pakistan and Islam were the key issues to political success of BJP and other Hindutva parties. Modi said that terrorism is promoted by black money and his fight was against terrorism and the menace gets power from fake currencies. “With our step on currency notes we have been successful in weakening the hands of terrorists and those in fake currency rackets,” he said.

Modi knows people of India are fed up with rampant corruption promoted by the ruling parties, especially the Congress but including his own BJP so far. But his demonetization drive doesn’t appear to promote the poor or common people, on the contrary they are facing deadly problems. Defending his decision of demonetization, Modi said: “Who is unhappy with corruption? Not those perpetrating corruption. it is the poor, the common citizens who are unhappy.” Modi said the “honest citizens of this country” have supported his move.

It is not surprising that the BJP is making a complete mockery of democracy by such nuisance.

Confidence or fear?

PM Modi has refused to attend the parliamentary session fearing criticism of his cash crisis project. If he is sure of what exactly he is doing now he could have attended the parliament and explained the government position by revealing the facts and his ideas for promoting the poor in the country. PM Modi is duty bound to tell the people what has been achieved so far and how exactly he wants to proceed further. He must also explain how the BJP has so much of money and why di d it withdraw money from banks on the eve of his night announcement about the demonetization. BJP leaders explain PM Modi doing all these to make India a developed nation – but how? Prices of essential commodities are going up and there is no hope that they will come down.

BJP government has said they are ready to debate but PM Modi avoids parliament and once as he came fearing loud noise, he walked out. In the past BJP had stormed parliament for years, walked out as a routine policy.

Modi said, “I am not being allowed to speak in Lok Sabha so I am speaking in the Jan Sabha Had asked for 50 days. You will see how things will change. This is a major step to rid the nation from corruption. Demonetization, Modi argues, has been done to help the poor. For how long can poor of India be told to pay for houses in cash? He talks about modernization. For how long will poor be asked- you want Pacca bill or Kaccha bill. Today your banks and wallets are in your mobile. This is how things have changed. I want to assure the people of the country that no one will be spared. Merely talking about the poor is different from working for the poor, something that the NDA government is always doing. Happenings in Parliament anguished our President, who has tremendous political experience We are not a selfish nation. We think about future generations.

Modi is fully aware of the fact the he and his party have lost the spot in the public domain as they do not trust them. He now knows for sure that he and his party won the parliamentary poll not because of his popularity but mainly because of popular anger and anguish among people over the corrupt Congress government. Anti-corruption movement created the necessary

Black money and fake notes are as catchy slogans as corruption and crimes. Modi is trying to use as many such slogans as they are appealing to people. Development, corruption, black money, flake currency, etc are Modi’s preferences while for RSS and other BJP leaders use Ghar wapsi, beef ban, mosque destruction, etc but all of them use these only for Hindu votes.

State elections due in a few more state assemblies and BJP wants to win as many seats as possible so that it could increase the seats in and get a majority in Rajya Sabha.

Fortunately for PM Modi, the ruling BJP, which had suffered hugely as a national party until it discovered Modi as the PM candidate, has no alternative to Modi and will have to obey him and help him execute his vote capturing agendas. It is moral boosting for Modi in the m name of a “great India” to resort even harder drives in future to target the common people of India.

While Mamata Banerjee wants a complete roll-back, others favour a Joint Parliamentary Committee to examine the crisis. Even if there is no certainty about how long the hardship of the ordinary people will continue, or whether their patience is inexhaustible, the nomination of Modi as Time magazine’s Person of the Year in an online poll was expected to be a morale-booster for the BJP but unfortunately, US president elect Donald Trump emerged the winner defeating Hillary Clinton even in that online poll.

Perhaps there are not many people who have retained their faith in him and expect him to ride out the present storm.

Waning Modi’s popularity

The central point of this transformation is the economic development which is Modi’s trump card. Although there is not much to write home at present about the growth trajectory — Manmohan Singh’s government did better in the early years of his tenure — what makes Modi stand out is his commitment to the cause. While his predecessor faltered in the last few years of his stint Modi focused on the market-oriented capitalist path. The demonetization has caused concern about a fall in the growth rate — the latest figure is 7.1, down from 7.6. Earlier governments were unwilling either to follow the capitalist path to help IMF and World bank with anti-poor policy or to crack down on black money because of the banking secrecy regulations and the fear of causing a flutter in the dovecotes of tainted politicians and bureaucrats, among others. The political consensus of parties not to disturb the status quo of allowing corruption as state policy. .

Seeking political mileage for BJP in the polls and improve ailing prestige, PM Modi, in contrast, has confronted the scourge of a parallel economy head-on notwithstanding the “monumental mismanagement” of the economy of which he has been accused by Manmohan Singh and Sen.

Notorious Reddy gang that steals natural resources in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh/Telengana as their right, are also caught by the authorities b for hiding huge cash and gold reserves but the issue would die down soon as these national frauds would be free, forgotten even in media as Indian military and intelligence divert attention to some cross border issue. Media can easily insult and defame Pakistan but cannot question Indian government about its false promises, especially on demonetization drive. Judiciary considering itself a part of government cannot question the government.

Modi and BJP presume that the ordinary people have been willing to undergo the severe inconvenience of standing in long queues because they believe that instead of mere promises as in the past, a firm step against black money is at last being taken. Nor is there an acceptance of the charge about the futility of the step considering that only six per cent of the black money is kept in cash.

The reason is the belief that the latest measure will tell the hoarders of hidden wealth that Modi seems serious about bringing them to book. Modi, therefore, can said to be in the process of passing the most arduous test of all by expecting the people to ignore their present difficulties because of their faith in him.

There is little doubt that demonetization has been a risky gamble for BJP and Modi where he has taken on a section of the opposition in the hope that his popularity will save him when the votes are counted.

Some people who somehow wants to see India a super power as early as possible to overtake China and challenge and Russia do support Modi who wants to be a hero of the media.

Observations

The chief outcome of the demonetization drive launched by Modi is that people spend very less and save a lot that could be used by the Modi government to put the money in global market to help the multinational corporations make more money. In the process, common people suffer while the rich face no problems as they get money as much as they require. Now black money is available in new 2000 currency notes.

There is no evidence to show that common people will benefit from the current cash crisis perpetrated by the government, making common people a beggar class standing in long queues to get their own money for their daily requirements while the rich and corporate lords get their required big cash- how? Corporate lords will certainly benefit. And BJP can eventually blame Pakistan and terrorism for failure of his cashless drive and media would support them. How come black money promotes terrorism when states are funding terror operations against other countries? Does state have black money?

Corruption and black money are being pampered at many levels and by many sources that share the booty. Poor and common people suffer.

Has Modi done anything for the poor in Gujarat where was the CM for many years?

When the Modi government has not yet begun targeting the mafias operating in every domain of the society with state backing and when the cricket match fixings have remained a state honor for the mafias, there is nothing that would make people believe what PM Modi says.

Ever since he assumed power by dethrone the Congress party’s Manmohan Singh’s government, PM Modi has been making strenuous efforts to be in the news and capture the attention of global media and governments and obviously he has achieved some success in that respect but he has put the nation and people in danger by his latest cashless monetary move, forcing the people to throng the banks and post offices like beggars. .

PM Modi’s usual rhetoric of promoting poor and common men has remained a fake stunt. Common people suffer more than ever before while the rich and corporate lords who fund the poll campaigns of both national parties continue to thrive, though a couple of them have been caught concealing illegal money. But how would this help the poor Is not clear though corruption harms the people at large.

Common people, the chief beneficiary of the demonetization attack by the Modi government’s decision to withdraw important currency notes without any prior caution, cannot be expected to buy the false promise of PM to make them strong by his demonetization gimmick.

PM Modi should now reveal his whole logic behind all this and how the poor and common would benefit direct from the drive.

Already the image of Modi as an elected leader has been waning as people do not see him s the tall leader he and his supporters claim to be worth trusting any more without seeing the results.

Modi must ask every political party to declare their assents, both movable and d immovable and state the sources from which they got the money. He must immediately ask his BJP to declare the assets and the funds it has along with the sources. Once party funds are accounted properly and made known to public, the level of corruption can be contained. People are fed up with piecemeal approach in containing and ending corruption by catching a few individuals and let them escape in due course by funding the ruling party.

Since the BJP is dreaming of making India super power, naturally poor will have to perish and only rich and corporate lords should shine. Developed nations just crush the common people and poor disappear.

Recovering all black money from the defaulters will not automatically make poor and common people rich or self reliance-only governmental action to upgrade them with money can.

Educated people could be fascinated by the slogans like removal of black money and corruption

Removal of black and fake money is a must. But will that alone make the poor happy?

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South Asia

Into the Sea: Nepal in International Waters

Sisir Devkota

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A visit to the only dry port of Nepal will immediately captivate busy scenes with hundreds of trucks, some railway carriages and huge Maersk containers at play. Trains from the Port of Kolkata in India carry tons of Nepal’s exports every week. Every year, Nepal is fined millions of rupees for overstaying its containers at the designated dock in Haldiya Port of Kolkata. Nepal pays for spaces inside Indian ships to carry out its exports via the sea. This is the closest Nepal has come in exploiting economic opportunities through sea waters. Prime Minister KP Oli went one step further and presented an idea of steering Nepal’s own fleets in the vast international sea space. While his idea of Nepal affording its own ship was mocked; on the contrary, he was right. The idea is practical but herculean.

To start with, Nepal has a landlocked right to use international waters via a third country for economic purposes only. Law of the Sea conferences held during the 80’s, guarantees Nepal’s right to use the exclusive economic zone all around the globe. Article 69 of the Law of the Sea convention states that Nepal could both use sea as a trading route and exploit the exclusive economic zone of its sea facing neighbors. Nepal’s closest neighbor, India has a wide exclusive economic zone which consists of 7500 km long coastline. The article also allows landlocked nations to use docking facilities of the nearest coastal nation to run its fleets. An exclusive economic zone in sea waters is designated after a coastal nation’s eleven mile parallel water boundary ends; which is also a part of the coastal nations territory. Simply put, Nepali fleets can dock at India’s port, sail eleven miles further into international waters-carry out fishing and other activities, sail back to the Indian coast and transfer its catches back to Nepal.

Floating Challenges

Before ships can carry the triangular flag into sea waters, Nepal will need treaties in place to use coastal nation’s water to take off and build shipment facilities. Law of the Sea convention clearly mentions that the right to use another nation’s coast will depend solely on the will of the hosting coastal nation. Does Nepal have the political will to communicate and forge a comprehensive sea transit agreement with its coastal neighbors? Nepal’s chance of securing fleets in and around the Indian Ocean will depend on whether it can convince nations like India of mutual benefits and cancel any apprehension regarding its security that might be compromised via Nepal’s sea activity. The convention itself is one among the most controversial international agreements where deteriorating marine ecosystems, sovereignty issues and maritime crimes are at its core. Majority of global and environmental problems persist in the high seas; ranging from territorial acquisitions to resource drilling offences. Nepal is welcome into the high seas, but does it comprehend the sensitivity that clouts sea horizons? Nepal needs a diplomatic strategy, but lacking experience, Nepal will need to develop institutional capacities to materialize the oceanic dream. Secondly, the cost of operating such a national project will be dreadfully expensive. Does the Nepali treasury boast finances for a leapfrogging adventure?

How is it possible?

The good news is that many landlocked nations operate in international waters. Switzerland, as an example might not assure the Nepali case, but Ethiopia exercising its sea rights via Djibouti’s port could be inspiring. Before Nepal can start ordering its fleets, it will need to design its own political and diplomatic strategy. Nepal’s best rationale would lie in working together with its neighbors. The South Asian network of nations could finally come into use. Along with Nepal, Bhutan is another landlocked nation where possible alliances await. If India’s coasts are unapproachable, Nepal and Bhutan could vie for Bangladeshi coastlines to experience sea trading. Maldivian and Pakistani waters are geographically and economically inaccessible but Sri Lanka lies deep down the South Asian continent. If Nepal and Bhutan can satisfy Sri Lankan interests, the landlocked union could not only skim through thousands of nautical miles around the Bay of Bengal without entering Indian water space; but also neutralize the hegemonic status of India in the region. If such a multinational agreement can be sought; SAARC- the passive regional body will not only gain political prowess but other areas of regional development will also kickstart.

Most importantly, a transit route (such as the Rohanpur-Singhdabad transit route) from Bangladesh to Nepal and Bhutan will need to be constructed well before ships start running in the Indian Ocean. In doing so, Nepal will not only tranquilize Nepal-Bhutan relations but also exercise leadership role in South Asia. A regional agreement will flourish trade but will also make landlocked Nepal’s agenda of sailing through other regions of international sea strong and plausible. A landlocked union with Bhutan will trim the costs than that of which Nepal will be spending alone. Such regional compliance would also encourage international financial institutions to fund Nepal’s sea project. Apart from political leverages, Nepal’s economy would scale new heights with decreasing price of paramount goods and services. Flourishing exports and increased tourism opportunities would be Nepal’s grandiloquence. Nepal’s main challenge lies in assuring its neighbors on how its idea would be mutually beneficial. Nepal’s work starts here. Nepal needs to put together a cunning diplomatic show.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hug Diplomacy Fails

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s enthusiasm is only to capture power; the same, however, cannot be said of foreign policy administration, especially in dealing with our immediate neighbors, and China. The best examples of his policy paralysis are the way in which demonetization and GSTs are implemented, or his sudden visit to Pakistan in December 2015. He is always in election mode. During the first two years, he was in the humor of a general election victory. Thereafter, he has spent much of his energy in establishing himself as the sole savior of the BJP in state elections, and this year he will turn his attention to the 2019 general elections.

Two years ago, without doing any homework or planning, Modi travelled to Pakistan from Afghanistan to greet his counterpart, the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to wish him well on his birthday. He hugged Sharif and spent only two hours with him to try to sort out the 70 year outstanding divergence between India and Pakistan.

Modi strategically hugs fellow world leaders. He has no strategic perception. He believes only in the power of his personal charisma in dealing with foreign policy matters. This strategy has failed considerably with China and with our other immediate neighbors, but he neither intends to accept these mistakes, nor is he interested in learning from them. More importantly, an alternative diplomatic strategy is necessary to maintain our international position; through prudent policy articulations. Let us examine the impact of his hug diplomacy.

During the 2013/14 general elections campaign he attacked the Congress-led UPA government on multiple fronts, including towards former Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh’s policy on Pakistan. He proposed that the BJP government would have more guts to better deal with Pakistan. Under his administration, we lost numerous soldiers in fighting with Pakistan terrorists, experienced a 100-day shutdown in Kashmir, blindly allowed a Pakistan team to inspect our Pathankot Air Force Station, and generally continued down a visionless path in foreign policy. These indicate that Modi’s defensive and offensive strokes against Pakistan have failed completely, including the most politicized ‘surgical strike’ that did not contain the terrorists from Pakistan. Today, the Modi government is searching for policy directions in handling Pakistan, but sat in a corner like a lame duck.

In the beginning, when he took office, Modi perhaps believed that ‘everything is possible’ in international affairs simply by virtue of occupying the prime minister seat. Further, he thought that all his visits abroad would bring a breakthrough. His hugs with counterparts, various costume changes, and the serving of tea, indicate that our prime minister is using soft power approaches. These approaches were used by our first Prime Minister Nehru whilst India did not have a strong military or economy. However, India is not today what it was in the 1950/60s. Presently, hugging and changing costumes will not necessarily keep India influential in international relations, especially at a time when the world is undergoing multi-polar disorder. However, he is in continuous denial that his paths are wrong, especially in dealing with our neighbors.

What is the BJP led-NDA government policy on Pakistan? Does this government have any policy for Pakistan? Since 2014,Modi has not permitted the Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj, to contribute to any foreign policy articulations. As long as Sushma fulfills the duty of Ministry of Indian Overseas Affairs she will receive praise from the prime minister’s office.

During 2015 he met Sharif at his residence in Islamabad to give him a hug. This happened exactly two years ago. Further, this is a very serious question that the Media and Modi-supporting TV channels forgot to raise. Instead, without hesitation, they praised him for touching the sky, and described the moment as a diplomatic initiative for a breakthrough with our neighbor Pakistan. The Media will realize this mistake when their traditional viewers switch over to other channels to get centrist news.

What are the outcomes of Modi hugging Sharif at his residence? The results are terrible. India’s relation with Pakistan touches the lowest ever level in a history of 70 years. The Mumbai terror attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed was released from house arrest and has started a political party to contest the general elections in Pakistan next year. This government does not have the guts to put pressure on Pakistan to provide the evidence – as requested by the Pakistan’s Court – essential to keeping the trial alive against Saeed. Modi has often preached that his government succeeded in isolating Pakistan in the international domain. The reality would be as much India diplomatically isolating Pakistan from the international community as the vacuum has been comfortably filled by China without any difficulty. These are the achievements that Modi’s hugs have brought to India.

The stability of Afghanistan is in India’s long-term strategic interest. India’s ‘aid diplomacy’ to Afghanistan in various fields has been increasing day after day, including infrastructure development and the training of Afghan security forces. Yet, India’s influence in Afghanistan is in disarray. Former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai said, “India should have its own policy on Afghanistan”. However, Modi’s policy makers in New Delhi are expecting the US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to maintain India’s active and significant role in Afghanistan.

India showed its displeasure during the constitutional crisis in Nepal, in halting energy supply to Kathmandu. This forced the land-locked country to obtain easy support from Beijing. Nepal was once the buffer state between India and China; it is now sitting on China’s lap and steering India. Modi’s mute approach to the Rohingya crisis speculates India’s major power ambition. This is a serious setback to India’s diplomacy: it is now pushing Myanmar to get support from China, along with our neighbor Bangladesh, in resolving the crisis with Rohingya refugees.

The first democratically elected government under Mohamed Nasheed was toppled unconstitutionally in Maldives. Since India has failed to raise any substantial voice against this atrocity, China has jumped onto the scene. New Delhi ought to have designed a policy to resolve the political crisis, but India, the world’s largest democracy, has watched this incident as a movie in the Indian Ocean Theatre. The highlight was the decision of our Prime Minister to skip a visit to the Maldives whilst on his tour of the Indian Ocean islands.

In Sri Lanka, China is designing its future battlefield against India. As the war against LTTE was over, Colombo started travelling in a two-way track, with India and China. Beijing’s love affair, apparently with Colombo, but with an eye on New Delhi, is no secret. Since Modi has allowed these developments without exercising any diplomatic resistance, he has given China a comfortable seat inside Sri Lanka. China has now realised that her weaved network against India can be strengthened easily in the Indian Ocean, because New Delhi only displays silent concern. After Modi took office, India – China relations have remained static. The border talks are on stand still. Beijing holds on to extend a technical hold on Masood Azhar, a UN designated terrorist. The dragon pulls our immediate neighbors to her side. These developments indicate that our foreign policy articulations are not supported by any clear strategic trajectory.

Modi’s diplomacy is like an air balloon which, once torn, cannot be refilled; a new balloon is needed. Hugging a leader does not lead to any commitment in foreign affairs. Personal charisma does not work as a foreign policy tool in dealing with a world power. For this reason, Modi cannot understand the setback he is facing with China, Pakistan, and our other neighbors. In comparison, Vajpayee’s or Dr. Manmohan Singh’s combined simple charisma as leaders or economists with appropriate home-work in the past; has caused tremendous results in foreign policy, including expected results in Indo-US nuclear negotiations. This is completely missing in Modi’s administration.

Hence, the newly elected Congress Party President Rahul Gandhi has said, “Modi’s hug diplomacy fails”. It was a valuable comment that the ruling elite should consider as a meaningful insight. Alternative approaches are vital to regain our neighbors’ trust, as opposed to China’s. However, Prime Minister Modi’s this year of work will be focused on the 2019 general elections, compromising the proper attention due to India’s international diplomacy.

First published in Congress Sandesh

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Potential Consequences of Nuclear Politics in South Asia

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Established in 1948, Indian atomic energy commission turned towards United Kingdom for their first help in the making of Apsara. Subsequently, with a similar vision, the CIRUS reactor was supplied by Canada, where, the heavy water came from the United States.

India, over the years, has built a nuclear program that has led to the making of a number of reactors. India’s 1974 “Peaceful nuclear explosion” implies to their hegemonic ambitions as India has the capacity to produce around 300-400 nuclear weapons. The continuous upgradation of weapons by India could lead her as a hegemon nuclear power that can deeply unsettle Pakistan and China.

Calling into question India’s stated intentions, when it comes to nuclear tests, the plutonium for its 1974 and 1998 tests was diverted from its “civilian” nuclear facilities. After 1974, India continued to claim its explosion was “peaceful” and advocated global nuclear disarmament, even as it rejected proposals by Pakistan to denuclearize South Asia.

From Pokhran-I to Operation Shakti, India has traditionally relied on plutonium and thermonuclear technology. In 1992, the then Chairman of Department of Indian Atomic Energy  acknowledged that India had succeeded in the past for achieving the target of highly enriched uranium, while the centrifuge program was facing critical and technical hindrances. Also, it was admitted by the former Chairman of AEC, Raja Ramanna that India was working to produce more efficient centrifuges which were used for military purposes.  At the peak of all these developments, it is important to note that thermonuclear weapons have far more destructive power than a nuclear bomb.

India may also be considering using its civil power reactors to increase its stock of weapon-grade plutonium. Robert Einhorn, the State Department’s former top nonproliferation official told the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference in March that the officials in the Bush administration had the ambition to sign a nuclear deal with India, to “work together to counter China- to be a counterweight to an emerging China.” He further expressed his views that the nuclear deal had unfortunate repercussions, because other nations concluded that Washington was playing favorites with India.

India is the only country in the region having uranium reserves that are higher than what other countries in the region hold. India has already received roughly 4,914 tons of uranium from France, Russia, and Kazakhstan, and it has agreements with Canada, Mongolia, Argentina, and Namibia for additional shipments. It also signed a uranium deal with Australia that has sparked considerable controversy at home.

This massive production of uranium annually can support its nuclear submarine program and current weapons grade plutonium production rate indirectly. These uranium reserves are enough for approx. 6-10 bombs per year.

Adding a twist to the existing fissile material build-up process, the Indo-US strategic partnership supplemented it. Under this dangerous bargain, it would continue to not only allow India to increase its fissile material but also the capacity to increase the build-up of nuclear weapon material.

Hence, the strategic stability in South Asia has been negatively impacted since the initial stages due to the hegemonic designs which India pursued with the start of CIRUS reactor. With the passage of time, the Indo-US nuclear deal and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver have already added more repercussions and now the discriminatory move to try to facilitate Indian NSG membership will further erode the strategic stability in South Asia.

Indian NSG membership and its potential exemption has adverse implications on non-proliferation regime. This has allowed India to expand its military program. As a result of 2008 exemption it has signed a number of agreement in nuclear domain with different countries. Interestingly, Mansoor Ahmed states that India has the capacity to utilize the uranium it is importing from these countries to produce more bombs.  The aforementioned reasons sum up India’s keenness to obtain NSG’s membership. This U.S.-backed move to make India a member of the NSG will be good neither for Pakistan nor for China, and it would set off nuclear instability in the region.

While looking at the dynamics of left alone Pakistan since late 1990’s, starting from Indo-US strategic partnership to now this geoploliticising of NSG. Consequently, this shall allow India to use all this a means of making the most optimum use of all its natural uranium stocks for weaponization. To offset the stakes, it might be prudent to have a close check on the international architects of India’s nuclear build-up. The alleged misuse of U.S. and Canadian controlled items by India must be enough to refrain from any cooperation if it is not abiding by group’s guidelines and commodity control list.

Furthermore, the more discriminatory the international nuclear order becomes, the less would be the effectiveness of deterrence and strategic balance in the region. The NSG will have to identify that India’s 1974 nuclear explosive test was the reason that nuclear supplier states established the NSG. It must also emphasize upon its commitment to uphold the principles of the nonproliferation.

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