At the outset one crucial issue should be stressed right here. The caste factor among Hindu voters still plays key in Indian politics and this would play out fully in regional polls, more than the national parliamentary election. Indian elections are mind-bogglingly complex. Economic class, ethnicity, regional identity, religion – sometimes even politics – all play a role. But the key factor is still caste.
Each political party, national, regional and local, has over years built up vote banks to rely on for votes during the polls. Traditionally the Congress party holds the major chunks of vote banks, Hindu castes, Muslims, Christian, Sikh, and all other communities. Of late, projecting Hindutva as the only legitimate Indian ideology BJP has captured many vote banks of Congress and other parties at national and regional levels by misusing Hinduism as Hindutva. Earlier, Congress party promoted the Hindutva parties like BJP in order to contain and silence Indian Muslims and also corner their vote banks by using the Hindutva forces as serious threats. BJP made full use of Congress help and alter defeating it and replacing it in many states and winning majority in parliament it made Congress almost irrelevant in Indian politics.
Muslims who used to vote for Congress party enmasse have for the first time in Indian political history, like Hindus voted against both Congress and BJP in Delhi assembly poll which brought the new AAP of Arvind Kejriwal to power with a massive mandate. While the then ruling Congress could not win even one seat in Delhi assembly, the former ruler BJP somehow managed scrap through in three constituencies.
The Modi government at the centre as well as BJP party in the country is not as comfortable as both did last year when the BJP swept the poll taking full advantage of anti-corruption movement spearheaded by Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal that targeted the hopelessly corrupt Congress led UPA government,.
The caste-based politicians have learnt that by ruthlessly targeting their message at the narrow slice of the population they represent they can win state elections. The BJP and its national rival the Congress party, meanwhile, have to water its message down to attempt to appeal from select castes to almost everyone.
In Bihar polls held last year, the Grand Alliance of Nitish-Lalu defeated BJP alliance. Lalu or Laloo as he is universally known in India is a very shrewd politician who ruled Bihar for 15 years thanks to the seemingly impregnable electoral alliance he forged between the state’s Muslims and the large, traditionally cow-herding, Yadav caste that delivered 30% of the vote at every election. But the appeal to caste identity tends to be linked to appeasement in India: politics becomes almost exclusively about what you can deliver – jobs, housing, subsidies – for your fellow caste members.
Nitish Kumar built his support in Bihar by cleverly picking off disaffected lower caste voters and Muslim voters from Congress vote bank. Like Laloo he styles himself a socialist, but unlike him, also a champion of law and order who would put development first. And Bihar did begin to improve under Kumar. He got rid of the caste-cronyism that marred Laloo’s rule and has made the state more law abiding and more prosperous. And, until very recently, Kumar was a strong supporter of the BJP. But he didn’t think Modi was fit to be prime minister and cut his ties with the party. Instead Kumar formed with his sworn enemy, Laloo. The idea is that together they can unite lower caste voters against Modi.
Modi has been widely criticised for waiting so long to speak out against the lynching of a Muslim man by a mob of his Hindu neighbours for allegedly slaughtering a cow, a supposed “sacred animal” to Hindutva forces. The issue was exactly what Modi needed to drive a wedge between the lower caste Hindus and the Muslims that are the electoral bedrock of third front like the Grand Alliance.
Now the BJP requires increasing its MPs tally in Upper House of parliament in order to pass all bills easily and state elections would give the main parties wining seats would gain MPs in the Hose. Indian states like Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry (Pondicherry) are getting ready for elections to elect assemblies and the Indian election commission has already notified the dates for these states. However, BJP may not gain much from the elections.
Around 17 crore voters will cast their vote in assembly elections in the five states. 824 constituencies will go on poll when Assembly Elections will be held in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. Election Commission declares model code of conduct in five states with immediate effects. Central police forces will be deployed in all the five states to ensure fair elections.
Accordingly, assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will be held in April and May, Chief Election Commissioner Nasim Zaidi announced on Friday. While Assam will have a two-phase election on April 4 and 11, West Bengal will see balloting on seven dates despite a six-phase election: April 4, 11, 17, 21, 25 and 30 and May 5. In contrast, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry will see election on a single day: May 16. Votes polled in all five states will be counted on May 19. Elections will be held in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry.
The results of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal and Puducherry Assembly elections will be declared on May 19. Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Assembly Elections will take place in one phase. Kerala Assembly Elections will take place in one phase. The polling will be held on May 16. The West Bengal Assembly Elections will take place in six phases. Notification will be issued on March 11 for the first phase. Polling for the first phase will be on two dates that are 4 April and 11 April. The voting for the fourth phase of WB Assembly election will take place on April 25. Date of fifth phase polling is 30 April. The polling for the last phase will be held on May 5 in WB. The polling for the second phase of the West Bengal Assembly Election will be held on April 17. Date of third phase polling is 21 April. Assam Assembly Election will be held in two phases. First phase will include 65 constituencies. The notification will be issued on March 11. Last date of withdraw of candidature is March 21. First phase election will be held on 4 April. Second phase of the Assam Assembly Election will be held on April 11.
Electronic voting machine (EVM) will be used for polls. GPS system will be installed in flying squad to track their movement. The Election Commission will keep 5 central observers in each district. Special polling stations will be set up for disabled persons. 1.98 crore electorates will practice their voting right in Assam.
Dates for Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry were announced on Friday. The elections in Assam will be held in two phases. The dates of polling are April 4 and April 11. The elections in West Bengal will be held in six phases. In the first phase, voting will take place on two dates April 4 and April 11 as the seats fall under the Naxal affected areas. The elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry will be held in one phase on May 16. Counting of votes for the elections will be on May 19
Tamil Nadu, where AIADMK is currently in power, has 234 assembly constituencies. 5.68 crore people will be eligible for voting in Tamil Nadu. CM Jayalalithaa is likely to face a tough fight in the state from Karnunanidhi-led DMK-Congress alliance if it joins hands with actor-turned-politician Vijaykanth-led DMDK. In 2011, with 28 seats Vijaykanth became the leader of opposition in the state assembly. AIADMK has got into an alliance with Congress rebel leader GK Vasan.
West Bengal has 294 assembly constituencies. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has maintained that she is confident of winning the elections despite CPI (M) joining hands with it arch foe the Congress in the state for the polls. TMC contested the last assembly elections in the state in alliance with the Congress and swept the state. However, Congress is forging an electoral-arrangement with the Left to challenge Mamata Banerjee in the upcoming polls. Left-Congress will not hold joint elections rallies but may not field candidates against one other to consolidate anti-TMC votes. BJP which somehow managed two LS seats in WB in 2014 is attempting to make inroads in the Left bastion.
In Kerala, CPI (M) is preparing to forge an alliance with “all democratic forces”, including possibly the ruling Congress but that, many communist leaders feel, could end the Communist rule in the state once for all. Kerala has 140 assembly constituencies. Traditionally, Kerala has seen straight contest between Congress-led UDF and CPM-led LDF. Congress led UDF had just scraped past the CPM led LDF by a slender margin in 2011 elections. The UDF government led by Ooman Chandy has been rocked by allegations of corruption including the solar panel scam. Left which is pushing for an understanding with the Congress in West Bengal faces cong led UDF as its main adversary in Kerala. BJP has been for years has tried and failed to make its presence in the state assembly but this time around it hopes to win a seat and has stitched an electoral alliance with the newly formed Bhartiya Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS). The BDJS is led by Eazhava outfit Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogamt, though it denied that. BJP is trying to bring in some important persons and make alliance with small parties.
In Assam, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has tied up with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and as BJP has hopes. In fact, BJP has stitched together a larger alliance with AGP and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). The “foreigners” issue helps the BJP. They have claimed that the assembly election in the key north eastern state will be a contest between “all indigenous people” led by it on one side and Congress and the UDF on the other. Assam has 126 assembly constituencies. CM Tarun Gogoi fights 15 years of anti-incumbency. AGP which once ruled the state under PK Mahanta has agreed to play second fiddle to the BJP in Assam. BJP won 7 seats out of 14 in Assam in general elections 2014. All India United Democratic Front (AUDF) won 18 seats in the last elections has emerged as the main opposition party in the assembly.
Puducherry has 30 assembly constituencies.
Modi faces a crucial electoral test right now. Traditionally his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has drawn support from upper caste Hindus – not a big enough base for a national party.
Indeed, Modi’s genius – or good fortune – has been that he has managed to lift himself and the party he leads above the narrow appeal of caste. Modi won a landslide a year and a half ago by hugely widening the party’s appeal, persuading hundreds of millions of Indians that only he could make India shine and knock the economy into shape and deliver growth and prosperity to the nation. However, after assuming power, Modi began his world tour. In fact Modi is fond of spending more time abroad than in India.
The problem is Modi’s “reform agenda” has been blocked in the upper house of parliament. He needs to win every state election from now to the next general election to get anywhere near the majority he needs. That’s why he invested so much in the election in Bihar, India’s poorest and third most populous state. He appeared at so many rallies but his magic did not work there as “Grand Alliance” by Nitish Kumar and Laloo Prasad Yadav still had upper hand in Bihar. BJP depended exclusively on Modi to win Bihar as he was even accused of “carpet bombing” the state and because the party hasn’t named a candidate for chief minister – the top job in the state – he’s the only figurehead. And on balance they have the edge over the BJP.
The state polls now are massively raising the stakes for Modi. Another loss now will be a huge blow to his reputation of “winner” and will embolden opposition parties across India.
The polls say the ballot is too close to call and Mr Modi is up against two of the most seasoned – and successful – players of caste politics in all India.
This being India even state elections are democratic contests on a truly staggering scale.
Perhaps, it is too early to forecast eh poll results of the 5 states going to polls in May. However, as it stands today, the ruling AIADMK has the advantage over other parties, including DMK-Congress combination. Tamils appear to be unhappy to replace corrupt AIADMK with corrupt DMK. BJP is obviously nervous that it might lose the seats it has in the assembly now. Yes, not only BJP but even parties of Vijayakanth and Sarath Kumar are deeply worried about retaining their seats. BJP having declared to come to power in Tamil Nadu this time not having found either DMK or AIADMK to support it, now tries to win as many seat as possible with alliance and thus it woos both Sarath and Vijayakanth to come for alliance with it. Parties of Dr. Ramadoss and Vaiko, having got considerable vote banks, are individually on the lookout now for more partners and their success depends on the alliances they make. Both want to be CM after the poll and do not seek proper understanding as the basis for realpolitics.
Political parties with their narrow-minded line of thinking, and do not allow credible alternatives for the people of India to choose from for better governance. That goes against principles of democracy.
In Kerala, where the Congress led UDF rules, the left parties are trying to catch up with it but an emerging congress-communist alliance in West Bengal against the ruling TMC of Mamata Banerjee confuses Kerala voters. Not being able to identify their allies and real opponents and not knowing what to do next, the Communists today are the most confused politicians India can boast of. While Communists and Congress leaders do not expect people to think, voters themselves are not impressed by their own alliance against logic of Indian politics.
Yes, not only Keralites, Indian voters at large stand confused at the possible Congress-communist alliance, mainly because it would lead to even an illogical Congress-BJP alliance in the near future.
Into the Sea: Nepal in International Waters
A visit to the only dry port of Nepal will immediately captivate busy scenes with hundreds of trucks, some railway carriages and huge Maersk containers at play. Trains from the Port of Kolkata in India carry tons of Nepal’s exports every week. Every year, Nepal is fined millions of rupees for overstaying its containers at the designated dock in Haldiya Port of Kolkata. Nepal pays for spaces inside Indian ships to carry out its exports via the sea. This is the closest Nepal has come in exploiting economic opportunities through sea waters. Prime Minister KP Oli went one step further and presented an idea of steering Nepal’s own fleets in the vast international sea space. While his idea of Nepal affording its own ship was mocked; on the contrary, he was right. The idea is practical but herculean.
To start with, Nepal has a landlocked right to use international waters via a third country for economic purposes only. Law of the Sea conferences held during the 80’s, guarantees Nepal’s right to use the exclusive economic zone all around the globe. Article 69 of the Law of the Sea convention states that Nepal could both use sea as a trading route and exploit the exclusive economic zone of its sea facing neighbors. Nepal’s closest neighbor, India has a wide exclusive economic zone which consists of 7500 km long coastline. The article also allows landlocked nations to use docking facilities of the nearest coastal nation to run its fleets. An exclusive economic zone in sea waters is designated after a coastal nation’s eleven mile parallel water boundary ends; which is also a part of the coastal nations territory. Simply put, Nepali fleets can dock at India’s port, sail eleven miles further into international waters-carry out fishing and other activities, sail back to the Indian coast and transfer its catches back to Nepal.
Before ships can carry the triangular flag into sea waters, Nepal will need treaties in place to use coastal nation’s water to take off and build shipment facilities. Law of the Sea convention clearly mentions that the right to use another nation’s coast will depend solely on the will of the hosting coastal nation. Does Nepal have the political will to communicate and forge a comprehensive sea transit agreement with its coastal neighbors? Nepal’s chance of securing fleets in and around the Indian Ocean will depend on whether it can convince nations like India of mutual benefits and cancel any apprehension regarding its security that might be compromised via Nepal’s sea activity. The convention itself is one among the most controversial international agreements where deteriorating marine ecosystems, sovereignty issues and maritime crimes are at its core. Majority of global and environmental problems persist in the high seas; ranging from territorial acquisitions to resource drilling offences. Nepal is welcome into the high seas, but does it comprehend the sensitivity that clouts sea horizons? Nepal needs a diplomatic strategy, but lacking experience, Nepal will need to develop institutional capacities to materialize the oceanic dream. Secondly, the cost of operating such a national project will be dreadfully expensive. Does the Nepali treasury boast finances for a leapfrogging adventure?
How is it possible?
The good news is that many landlocked nations operate in international waters. Switzerland, as an example might not assure the Nepali case, but Ethiopia exercising its sea rights via Djibouti’s port could be inspiring. Before Nepal can start ordering its fleets, it will need to design its own political and diplomatic strategy. Nepal’s best rationale would lie in working together with its neighbors. The South Asian network of nations could finally come into use. Along with Nepal, Bhutan is another landlocked nation where possible alliances await. If India’s coasts are unapproachable, Nepal and Bhutan could vie for Bangladeshi coastlines to experience sea trading. Maldivian and Pakistani waters are geographically and economically inaccessible but Sri Lanka lies deep down the South Asian continent. If Nepal and Bhutan can satisfy Sri Lankan interests, the landlocked union could not only skim through thousands of nautical miles around the Bay of Bengal without entering Indian water space; but also neutralize the hegemonic status of India in the region. If such a multinational agreement can be sought; SAARC- the passive regional body will not only gain political prowess but other areas of regional development will also kickstart.
Most importantly, a transit route (such as the Rohanpur-Singhdabad transit route) from Bangladesh to Nepal and Bhutan will need to be constructed well before ships start running in the Indian Ocean. In doing so, Nepal will not only tranquilize Nepal-Bhutan relations but also exercise leadership role in South Asia. A regional agreement will flourish trade but will also make landlocked Nepal’s agenda of sailing through other regions of international sea strong and plausible. A landlocked union with Bhutan will trim the costs than that of which Nepal will be spending alone. Such regional compliance would also encourage international financial institutions to fund Nepal’s sea project. Apart from political leverages, Nepal’s economy would scale new heights with decreasing price of paramount goods and services. Flourishing exports and increased tourism opportunities would be Nepal’s grandiloquence. Nepal’s main challenge lies in assuring its neighbors on how its idea would be mutually beneficial. Nepal’s work starts here. Nepal needs to put together a cunning diplomatic show.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hug Diplomacy Fails
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s enthusiasm is only to capture power; the same, however, cannot be said of foreign policy administration, especially in dealing with our immediate neighbors, and China. The best examples of his policy paralysis are the way in which demonetization and GSTs are implemented, or his sudden visit to Pakistan in December 2015. He is always in election mode. During the first two years, he was in the humor of a general election victory. Thereafter, he has spent much of his energy in establishing himself as the sole savior of the BJP in state elections, and this year he will turn his attention to the 2019 general elections.
Two years ago, without doing any homework or planning, Modi travelled to Pakistan from Afghanistan to greet his counterpart, the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to wish him well on his birthday. He hugged Sharif and spent only two hours with him to try to sort out the 70 year outstanding divergence between India and Pakistan.
Modi strategically hugs fellow world leaders. He has no strategic perception. He believes only in the power of his personal charisma in dealing with foreign policy matters. This strategy has failed considerably with China and with our other immediate neighbors, but he neither intends to accept these mistakes, nor is he interested in learning from them. More importantly, an alternative diplomatic strategy is necessary to maintain our international position; through prudent policy articulations. Let us examine the impact of his hug diplomacy.
During the 2013/14 general elections campaign he attacked the Congress-led UPA government on multiple fronts, including towards former Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh’s policy on Pakistan. He proposed that the BJP government would have more guts to better deal with Pakistan. Under his administration, we lost numerous soldiers in fighting with Pakistan terrorists, experienced a 100-day shutdown in Kashmir, blindly allowed a Pakistan team to inspect our Pathankot Air Force Station, and generally continued down a visionless path in foreign policy. These indicate that Modi’s defensive and offensive strokes against Pakistan have failed completely, including the most politicized ‘surgical strike’ that did not contain the terrorists from Pakistan. Today, the Modi government is searching for policy directions in handling Pakistan, but sat in a corner like a lame duck.
In the beginning, when he took office, Modi perhaps believed that ‘everything is possible’ in international affairs simply by virtue of occupying the prime minister seat. Further, he thought that all his visits abroad would bring a breakthrough. His hugs with counterparts, various costume changes, and the serving of tea, indicate that our prime minister is using soft power approaches. These approaches were used by our first Prime Minister Nehru whilst India did not have a strong military or economy. However, India is not today what it was in the 1950/60s. Presently, hugging and changing costumes will not necessarily keep India influential in international relations, especially at a time when the world is undergoing multi-polar disorder. However, he is in continuous denial that his paths are wrong, especially in dealing with our neighbors.
What is the BJP led-NDA government policy on Pakistan? Does this government have any policy for Pakistan? Since 2014,Modi has not permitted the Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj, to contribute to any foreign policy articulations. As long as Sushma fulfills the duty of Ministry of Indian Overseas Affairs she will receive praise from the prime minister’s office.
During 2015 he met Sharif at his residence in Islamabad to give him a hug. This happened exactly two years ago. Further, this is a very serious question that the Media and Modi-supporting TV channels forgot to raise. Instead, without hesitation, they praised him for touching the sky, and described the moment as a diplomatic initiative for a breakthrough with our neighbor Pakistan. The Media will realize this mistake when their traditional viewers switch over to other channels to get centrist news.
What are the outcomes of Modi hugging Sharif at his residence? The results are terrible. India’s relation with Pakistan touches the lowest ever level in a history of 70 years. The Mumbai terror attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed was released from house arrest and has started a political party to contest the general elections in Pakistan next year. This government does not have the guts to put pressure on Pakistan to provide the evidence – as requested by the Pakistan’s Court – essential to keeping the trial alive against Saeed. Modi has often preached that his government succeeded in isolating Pakistan in the international domain. The reality would be as much India diplomatically isolating Pakistan from the international community as the vacuum has been comfortably filled by China without any difficulty. These are the achievements that Modi’s hugs have brought to India.
The stability of Afghanistan is in India’s long-term strategic interest. India’s ‘aid diplomacy’ to Afghanistan in various fields has been increasing day after day, including infrastructure development and the training of Afghan security forces. Yet, India’s influence in Afghanistan is in disarray. Former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai said, “India should have its own policy on Afghanistan”. However, Modi’s policy makers in New Delhi are expecting the US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to maintain India’s active and significant role in Afghanistan.
India showed its displeasure during the constitutional crisis in Nepal, in halting energy supply to Kathmandu. This forced the land-locked country to obtain easy support from Beijing. Nepal was once the buffer state between India and China; it is now sitting on China’s lap and steering India. Modi’s mute approach to the Rohingya crisis speculates India’s major power ambition. This is a serious setback to India’s diplomacy: it is now pushing Myanmar to get support from China, along with our neighbor Bangladesh, in resolving the crisis with Rohingya refugees.
The first democratically elected government under Mohamed Nasheed was toppled unconstitutionally in Maldives. Since India has failed to raise any substantial voice against this atrocity, China has jumped onto the scene. New Delhi ought to have designed a policy to resolve the political crisis, but India, the world’s largest democracy, has watched this incident as a movie in the Indian Ocean Theatre. The highlight was the decision of our Prime Minister to skip a visit to the Maldives whilst on his tour of the Indian Ocean islands.
In Sri Lanka, China is designing its future battlefield against India. As the war against LTTE was over, Colombo started travelling in a two-way track, with India and China. Beijing’s love affair, apparently with Colombo, but with an eye on New Delhi, is no secret. Since Modi has allowed these developments without exercising any diplomatic resistance, he has given China a comfortable seat inside Sri Lanka. China has now realised that her weaved network against India can be strengthened easily in the Indian Ocean, because New Delhi only displays silent concern. After Modi took office, India – China relations have remained static. The border talks are on stand still. Beijing holds on to extend a technical hold on Masood Azhar, a UN designated terrorist. The dragon pulls our immediate neighbors to her side. These developments indicate that our foreign policy articulations are not supported by any clear strategic trajectory.
Modi’s diplomacy is like an air balloon which, once torn, cannot be refilled; a new balloon is needed. Hugging a leader does not lead to any commitment in foreign affairs. Personal charisma does not work as a foreign policy tool in dealing with a world power. For this reason, Modi cannot understand the setback he is facing with China, Pakistan, and our other neighbors. In comparison, Vajpayee’s or Dr. Manmohan Singh’s combined simple charisma as leaders or economists with appropriate home-work in the past; has caused tremendous results in foreign policy, including expected results in Indo-US nuclear negotiations. This is completely missing in Modi’s administration.
Hence, the newly elected Congress Party President Rahul Gandhi has said, “Modi’s hug diplomacy fails”. It was a valuable comment that the ruling elite should consider as a meaningful insight. Alternative approaches are vital to regain our neighbors’ trust, as opposed to China’s. However, Prime Minister Modi’s this year of work will be focused on the 2019 general elections, compromising the proper attention due to India’s international diplomacy.
First published in Congress Sandesh
Potential Consequences of Nuclear Politics in South Asia
Established in 1948, Indian atomic energy commission turned towards United Kingdom for their first help in the making of Apsara. Subsequently, with a similar vision, the CIRUS reactor was supplied by Canada, where, the heavy water came from the United States.
India, over the years, has built a nuclear program that has led to the making of a number of reactors. India’s 1974 “Peaceful nuclear explosion” implies to their hegemonic ambitions as India has the capacity to produce around 300-400 nuclear weapons. The continuous upgradation of weapons by India could lead her as a hegemon nuclear power that can deeply unsettle Pakistan and China.
Calling into question India’s stated intentions, when it comes to nuclear tests, the plutonium for its 1974 and 1998 tests was diverted from its “civilian” nuclear facilities. After 1974, India continued to claim its explosion was “peaceful” and advocated global nuclear disarmament, even as it rejected proposals by Pakistan to denuclearize South Asia.
From Pokhran-I to Operation Shakti, India has traditionally relied on plutonium and thermonuclear technology. In 1992, the then Chairman of Department of Indian Atomic Energy acknowledged that India had succeeded in the past for achieving the target of highly enriched uranium, while the centrifuge program was facing critical and technical hindrances. Also, it was admitted by the former Chairman of AEC, Raja Ramanna that India was working to produce more efficient centrifuges which were used for military purposes. At the peak of all these developments, it is important to note that thermonuclear weapons have far more destructive power than a nuclear bomb.
India may also be considering using its civil power reactors to increase its stock of weapon-grade plutonium. Robert Einhorn, the State Department’s former top nonproliferation official told the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference in March that the officials in the Bush administration had the ambition to sign a nuclear deal with India, to “work together to counter China- to be a counterweight to an emerging China.” He further expressed his views that the nuclear deal had unfortunate repercussions, because other nations concluded that Washington was playing favorites with India.
India is the only country in the region having uranium reserves that are higher than what other countries in the region hold. India has already received roughly 4,914 tons of uranium from France, Russia, and Kazakhstan, and it has agreements with Canada, Mongolia, Argentina, and Namibia for additional shipments. It also signed a uranium deal with Australia that has sparked considerable controversy at home.
This massive production of uranium annually can support its nuclear submarine program and current weapons grade plutonium production rate indirectly. These uranium reserves are enough for approx. 6-10 bombs per year.
Adding a twist to the existing fissile material build-up process, the Indo-US strategic partnership supplemented it. Under this dangerous bargain, it would continue to not only allow India to increase its fissile material but also the capacity to increase the build-up of nuclear weapon material.
Hence, the strategic stability in South Asia has been negatively impacted since the initial stages due to the hegemonic designs which India pursued with the start of CIRUS reactor. With the passage of time, the Indo-US nuclear deal and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver have already added more repercussions and now the discriminatory move to try to facilitate Indian NSG membership will further erode the strategic stability in South Asia.
Indian NSG membership and its potential exemption has adverse implications on non-proliferation regime. This has allowed India to expand its military program. As a result of 2008 exemption it has signed a number of agreement in nuclear domain with different countries. Interestingly, Mansoor Ahmed states that India has the capacity to utilize the uranium it is importing from these countries to produce more bombs. The aforementioned reasons sum up India’s keenness to obtain NSG’s membership. This U.S.-backed move to make India a member of the NSG will be good neither for Pakistan nor for China, and it would set off nuclear instability in the region.
While looking at the dynamics of left alone Pakistan since late 1990’s, starting from Indo-US strategic partnership to now this geoploliticising of NSG. Consequently, this shall allow India to use all this a means of making the most optimum use of all its natural uranium stocks for weaponization. To offset the stakes, it might be prudent to have a close check on the international architects of India’s nuclear build-up. The alleged misuse of U.S. and Canadian controlled items by India must be enough to refrain from any cooperation if it is not abiding by group’s guidelines and commodity control list.
Furthermore, the more discriminatory the international nuclear order becomes, the less would be the effectiveness of deterrence and strategic balance in the region. The NSG will have to identify that India’s 1974 nuclear explosive test was the reason that nuclear supplier states established the NSG. It must also emphasize upon its commitment to uphold the principles of the nonproliferation.
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